经济冲击与汇率制度选择:基于中国的理论和经验研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 09:56

本文选题：实际冲击 + 货币冲击　；参考：《南开经济研究》2012年03期

【摘要】：经济冲击是影响中国汇率制度选择的重要因素,本文在传统国际宏观经济学框架内引入增长账户,通过增加对供给方面的考察补充和完善了传统国际宏观经济学关于汇率制度选择的理论,建立起一个解释人民币汇率制度选择的新框架,认为如果当前我国经济面临的主要冲击是来自实体经济部门的实际冲击,则人民币汇率制度应该把握好时机加快改革,向更富有灵活性的浮动汇率制度演进;如果经济面临的主要冲击来自于货币部门,则应该继续维持钉住"一篮子"参考货币(或美元)的有弹性的盯住汇率制度。基于结构VAR模型对人民币实际有效汇率演进的实证研究表明,与在工业化国家发现的名义冲击对实际汇率的波动具有较好解释力的情况相反,相对实际需求冲击和供给冲击能够更好地解释我国实际有效汇率在样本估计区间内绝大部分的变动,这对于指导目前所进行的人民币汇率制度选择与完善人民币的汇率形成机制的改革意义重大。
[Abstract]:Economic shock is an important factor affecting the choice of exchange rate regime in China. This paper introduces the growth account into the traditional international macroeconomic framework. By increasing the investigation on the supply side, it complements and perfects the traditional international macroeconomics theory on the choice of exchange rate regime, and establishes a new framework to explain the choice of RMB exchange rate regime. If the main impact of China's economy is the real impact from the real economic sector, then the RMB exchange rate system should seize the opportunity to speed up the reform to a more flexible floating exchange rate system evolution; If the main shock to the economy comes from the currency sector, a flexible peg to the "basket" of reference currencies (or the dollar) should be maintained. The empirical study on the evolution of RMB real effective exchange rate based on structural VAR model shows that the nominal shock found in industrialized countries has a better explanation for the fluctuation of real exchange rate. Relative to actual demand shocks and supply shocks, they can better explain the vast majority of changes in China's real effective exchange rate in the sample estimate range. This is of great significance to guide the choice of RMB exchange rate system and to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院金融学系;
【基金】：教育部重大攻关项目“全球金融危机与国际货币金融体系改革研究(09JZD0016)” 教育部重点基地重大项目“国际金融危机对我国经济的影响及其应对方(2009JJD790027)” 教育部人文社科青年项目“基于金融史学和政治经济学视角的人民币国际化问题研究(11YJC790171)”的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F124

【参考文献】