利率市场化对商业银行的影响及应对研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 12:52

本文选题：利率市场化 + 商业银行　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：利率市场化是政府和中央银行放松和取消对利率的管制，使利率水平根据资金的市场供求关系来决定。利率市场化改革是我国金融领域改革的重要内容。党的十八届三中全会的《决定》指出，要加快推进利率市场化。从1996年开始，我国开始了利率市场化的进程。经过18年的推进，我国的利率市场化改革取得了重大的进步，其中，国内的债券市场利率、同业拆借市场利率和贴现利率都实现了利率市场化，货币市场利率和外币存贷款利率也已基本实现了市场化定价；人民币存贷款利率的市场化是利率市场化改革中的重中之重。2013年7月，中国人民银行决定，自2013年7月20日起全面放开金融机构贷款利率管制。至此，我国的利率市场化改革还剩最后一步，即人民币存款利率的市场化。2014年，中国人民银行行长周小川在全国两会期间的记者会上表示，存款利率最后要放开，这应该是利率市场化中最后一步，而且很可能在最近一两年就能够实现。中国人民银行副行长易纲也表示，今明两年央行将重点推进人民币存款利率的改革，从而完全实现利率的市场化。我国进行利率市场化的改革要借鉴外国的经验。国外的利率市场化开始于20世纪70年代，发达国家出现了“滞涨”现象，凯恩斯主义经济学陷入困境，新自由主义主义开始兴起。国外的利率市场化改革可以分为渐进式改革和激进式改革，前者有利于改革的成功，而后者往往以失败而告终。本文主要通过理论和实证相结合的方法论述了利率市场化对商业银行的影响，主要采用了文献研究法、归纳法、比较分析法还有计量模型等多种方法。本文首先对国内外的相关研究文献进行了综述，并对利率的含义和利率市场化的相关理论进行了解释，总结了我国利率市场化改革的进程，说明了我国利率市场化改革的必要性。其次，本文通过定性分析和定量分析两种方法来探讨我国利率市场化对商业银行的影响。通过确立商业银行绩效评价指标和建立面板数据回归模型得出了实证结论，结果表明，利率的变动对商业银行的经营绩效有显著的影响，在不久的将来我国的存贷款利率完全放开之后，存贷款利率上升是大概率事件；利率完全市场化将导致我国存款利率上升的幅度将大于贷款利率上升的幅度，从而净息差将收窄；利率市场化将导致商业银行竞争加剧，收入结构发生变化，利息收入占比下降、非利息收入占比上升。本文最后结合利率市场化的国际经验，从产品定价、内部结构、管理模式等方面提出了我国的商业银行应对利率市场化的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The interest rate marketization is that the government and the central bank relax and deregulate the interest rate, and make the interest rate level decide according to the market supply and demand relationship of funds. The interest rate marketization reform is the important content of our country finance domain reform. The third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee pointed out that we should speed up the marketization of interest rates. Since 1996, China has started the process of interest rate marketization. After 18 years of promotion, China's interest rate marketization reform has made great progress. Among them, the domestic bond market interest rate, interbank lending market interest rate and discount interest rate have all realized the marketization of interest rate. Money market interest rates and foreign currency deposit and loan rates have also basically achieved market-oriented pricing; the marketization of renminbi deposit and loan rates is the most important part of the interest rate marketization reform. In July 2013, the people's Bank of China decided, Since July 20, 2013, the overall liberalization of financial institutions lending interest rate control. At this point, there is still one last step left in China's interest rate marketization reform, that is, the marketization of the RMB deposit rate. In 2014, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the people's Bank of China, said at a press conference during the national two sessions that the deposit interest rate would finally be liberalized. This should be the last step in interest rate liberalization, and probably in the next year or two. Yi Gang, deputy governor of the people's Bank of China, also said the central bank will focus on reform of renminbi deposit rates this year and next to fully liberalize interest rates. Our country carries on the interest rate marketization reform to draw lessons from the foreign experience. Foreign interest rate marketization began in the 1970s, developed countries appeared the phenomenon of "stagflation", Keynesian economics fell into a dilemma, and neoliberalism began to rise. Foreign interest rate marketization reform can be divided into progressive reform and radical reform, the former is conducive to the success of the reform, while the latter often ends in failure. This paper mainly discusses the impact of interest rate marketization on commercial banks through the combination of theory and empirical methods, mainly using the literature research method, induction method, comparative analysis method and econometric model and other methods. This paper first summarizes the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and explains the meaning of interest rate and the relevant theory of interest rate marketization, summarizes the process of interest rate marketization reform in China. Explained our country interest rate marketization reform necessity. Secondly, this paper discusses the impact of interest rate marketization on commercial banks by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The empirical conclusions are obtained by establishing performance evaluation index and panel data regression model of commercial banks. The results show that the change of interest rate has a significant impact on the performance of commercial banks. After the complete liberalization of deposit and loan interest rates in our country in the near future, the increase in deposit and loan interest rates is a big probability event; the complete marketization of interest rates will lead to an increase in deposit interest rates in China, which will be larger than the increase in loan interest rates. As a result, the net interest margin will be narrowed, and the marketization of interest rate will lead to the intensification of competition, the change of income structure, the decrease of interest income and the increase of non-interest income. Finally, based on the international experience of interest rate marketization, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for Chinese commercial banks to deal with the marketization of interest rate from the aspects of product pricing, internal structure, management mode, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.33

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