央行最优目标、资本管制与均衡汇率

发布时间：2018-06-13 01:54

本文选题：央行最优目标 + 资本管制　；参考：《经济科学》2012年06期

【摘要】：本文通过拓展的Ronald Shone动态开放宏观经济模型,建立了央行最优目标函数,并利用动态规划和贝尔曼方程推导出人民币均衡汇率表达式,在一定的资本管制系数下估算了1994年1季度～2011年1季度人民币均衡汇率区间。结果发现:1994以来央行的相机抉择政策,就人民币均衡汇率来看是行之有效的,没有造成人民币均衡汇率失衡;央行政策选择影响了人民币均衡汇率边界;中国资本项目开放的步伐是适宜的,超前的资本开放或僵硬的资本管制,都会造成人民币均衡汇率的较大失衡;资本项目进一步调整已具备较适宜的宏观经济环境。
[Abstract]:In this paper, through the extended Ronald Shone dynamic open macroeconomic model, the optimal objective function of central bank is established, and the expression of RMB equilibrium exchange rate is derived by using dynamic programming and Berman equation. The equilibrium exchange rate range of RMB from the first quarter of 1994 to the first quarter of 2011 is estimated under a certain capital control coefficient. The results show that the central bank's choice of policy since 1994 is effective in terms of RMB equilibrium exchange rate and does not result in the imbalance of RMB equilibrium exchange rate, and the policy choice of the central bank affects the boundary of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The pace of capital account opening in China is appropriate, and the capital opening ahead or rigid capital control will cause a large imbalance in the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB, and the further adjustment of capital account has already possessed a more suitable macroeconomic environment.
【作者单位】：重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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