日元升值对中日贸易收支的影响及启示

发布时间：2018-06-14 17:20

本文选题：汇率 + 升值　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：汇率是一个国家或地区进行对外经济活动的非常重要的价格指标,它通常被当作一个重要杠杆来调节一国的贸易收支。汇率变动通过改变商品相对价格影响一国进出口贸易,进而影响进出口商品结构。本文以分析日元升值对中日贸易收支的直接间接影响的途径和影响程度为目的。本文首先分析了从完全竞争市场和不完全竞争市场假设下的汇率变动对贸易收支影响的相关理论,简单概括了当前的研究文献,为下文分析铺垫理论基础。接着简单分析了日元升值的背景和升值阶段,沿着中日贸易发展的时间线,分析日元升值对中日进出口贸易总量的影响。紧接着分析中日两国比较商品优势,为进一步分析日元升值对中日两国商品结构产生的不同影响打下理论基础并揭示其影响的原因所在。在定量分析方面,文章采用实证研究的单位根检验、协整分析和向量误差修正模型等分析手段力求研究结论比较有说服力。通过分析1985-2012年中日两国30多年的贸易数据,我们得出结论：马歇尔-勒纳条件在中日两国贸易条件中不成立,日元汇率不是影响中日贸易收支的决定因素,中日两国国民收入才是影响两国贸易收支变动的主因,而且中国的国民收入水平对中日进出口影响较大。最后如何应对人民币升值,本文也提出了相关政策建议。包括保持国内货币政策独立性,实施合理的外汇政策,加快国内产业结构的升级,实现经济协调发展提高国内居民的消费水平,实现以内需为动力的发展。通过这些政策的实施我国可以利用好升值机会加快经济发展促进经济转型。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is a very important price index for a country or region to conduct foreign economic activities. It is usually used as an important lever to regulate a country's trade balance. Exchange rate change affects a country's import and export trade by changing the relative price of commodities, and then affects the structure of import and export commodities. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the direct and indirect influence of yen appreciation on Sino-Japanese trade balance. This paper first analyzes the theory of the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance under the assumption of perfect competitive market and incomplete competitive market, summarizes the current research literature, and lays a theoretical foundation for the following analysis. Then the background and stage of yen appreciation are briefly analyzed, and the influence of yen appreciation on the total volume of Sino-Japanese import and export trade is analyzed along the time line of Sino-Japanese trade development. Then the comparative commodity advantage between China and Japan is analyzed to lay a theoretical foundation for further analysis of the different effects of yen appreciation on the commodity structure of China and Japan and to reveal the reasons for its influence. In terms of quantitative analysis, this paper uses the unit root test, cointegration analysis and vector error correction model of empirical research to make the conclusions more convincing. By analyzing the trade data of China and Japan from 1985 to 2012, we conclude that the Marshall-Lerner condition is not established in the terms of trade between China and Japan, and the exchange rate of the yen is not the decisive factor affecting the balance of trade between China and Japan. The national income of China and Japan is the main factor that affects the changes of trade balance between China and Japan, and the level of national income of China has a great influence on the import and export of China and Japan. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to deal with RMB appreciation. It includes maintaining the independence of domestic monetary policy, implementing reasonable foreign exchange policy, speeding up the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, realizing the coordinated development of economy and improving the consumption level of domestic residents, and realizing the development driven by domestic demand. Through the implementation of these policies, China can make good use of the opportunity of appreciation to accelerate economic development and promote economic transformation.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】