人民币国际化问题的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 21:47

本文选题：人民币 + 国际化　；参考：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年的金融危机之后,中国经济的世界影响力迅速提高。作为世界第二大经济体,中国经济已经具有举足轻重的地位。然而,经济大国并没有带来货币大国的地位,人民币的国际化程度远远落后于中国经济的世界地位,因此加速人民币国际化进程、提升人民币在世界范围的影响力的呼声越来越高。不少学者对人民币国际化问题进行了研究,包括人民币国际化的必要条件、人民币国际化带来的收益和成本、人民币国际化的风险防范等。然而,大多数的研究都局限于定性研究。本文旨在对人民币国际化问题进行定量研究,弥补以往的研究在实证方面的不足。首先,本文梳理了国内外对货币国际化以及人民币国际化的研究成果,定性分析了货币国际化的条件以及相关理论,并就人民币国际化已经具备的条件进行定性分析。然后,本文从两个角度进行实证研究。第一个是判断人民币国际化的时机是否已经成熟。本文以美元、日元、英镑以及欧元这四种国际化程度最高的货币为样本,建立面板数据模型,定量分析货币国际化程度的影响因素及其影响程度。随后,将人民币的相关数据代入该模型,估计出人民币的理论国际化水平,并对比人民币的实际国际化水平,判断人民币国际化的时机是否已经成熟。研究发现,人民币理论上可以达到的国际化水平远远超过了人民币实际的国际化水平,因此大力推进人民币国际化的时机已经成熟。第二个角度是判断人民币是否应该进行国际化。本文分析了人民币国际化带来的收益和成本,对可计量的部分进行定量计算,通过权衡收益和成本,回答了这个问题。研究发现,人民币国际化带来的收益远远超过其风险和成本,为了获得可观的收益,应该推进人民币国际化。最后,本文根据实证研究结果提出一系列的建议。本文的创新之处在于,一是通过构建面板数据模型,从定量的角度判断人民币国际化的时机是否已经成熟；二是定量计算了人民币国际化的可计量收益,更好地衡量了人民币国际化的收益,为人民币是否应该进行国际化提供实证支撑。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 financial crisis, China's economic impact on the world has rapidly increased. As the world's second largest economy, China's economy has a pivotal position. However, economic powers do not bring about the status of currency powers, and the degree of internationalization of the renminbi lags far behind that of the world status of China's economy, thus speeding up the process of RMB internationalization. There is a growing clamour to raise the yuan's influence around the world. Many scholars have studied the issue of RMB internationalization, including the necessary conditions of RMB internationalization, the benefits and costs brought by RMB internationalization, the risk prevention of RMB internationalization, and so on. However, most studies are limited to qualitative research. The purpose of this paper is to carry out quantitative research on RMB internationalization to make up for the deficiency in empirical research. First of all, this paper combs the domestic and foreign research results of currency internationalization and RMB internationalization, qualitatively analyzes the conditions and relevant theories of currency internationalization, and carries on qualitative analysis on the conditions that RMB internationalization already has. Then, this article carries on the empirical research from two angles. The first is to judge whether the time is ripe for RMB internationalization. Based on the four most internationalized currencies, dollar, yen, sterling and euro, this paper establishes a panel data model to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting the degree of currency internationalization and the degree of its influence. Then the relevant data of RMB are added to the model to estimate the theoretical internationalization level of RMB and compare the actual internationalization level of RMB to judge whether the time is ripe for RMB internationalization. The study found that the internationalization level of RMB can be reached in theory far more than the actual level of internationalization of RMB, so the time is ripe to vigorously promote the internationalization of RMB. The second angle is to judge whether the RMB should be internationalized. This paper analyzes the benefits and costs brought about by RMB internationalization, calculates quantitatively the quantifiable part, and answers this question by weighing the benefits and costs. The study found that the benefits of RMB internationalization far outweigh its risks and costs. In order to achieve significant benefits, RMB internationalization should be promoted. Finally, this paper puts forward a series of suggestions according to the results of empirical research. The innovation of this paper is that, first, by building panel data model, judging whether the time is ripe for RMB internationalization from the quantitative point of view; second, quantitatively calculating the quantifiable income of RMB internationalization. Better measure the benefits of RMB internationalization, and provide empirical support for RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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