农产品价格上涨和通货膨胀的互动机制及共同原因

发布时间：2018-06-21 18:56

本文选题：农产品价格 + 金融抑制　；参考：《经济理论与经济管理》2012年06期

【摘要】：本文从金融市场的实际汇率、真实利率水平和劳动力市场的农业劳动力成本等角度分析二者之间的互动机制,认为通货膨胀通过农民的存粮行为、投资的促进、汇率传导三种机制影响农产品价格水平;而在刘易斯转折点出现的条件下,农产品价格通过劳动力成本的上升这一渠道导致一般物价水平上升,并且影响程度持续上升。本文对这些假说进行了理论分析后使用VAR模型进行经验研究,提出需求面的因素是价格水平变化的主要原因,供给面的因素是农产品价格变化的主要原因。应减少金融市场的扭曲程度,提升真实利率和人民币币值以抑制通货膨胀;在供给方面应改进农业的投入和生产模式,把劳动力成本上升和技术进步结合在一起,同时利用国际农产品市场稳定国内价格水平。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the interaction mechanism between the real exchange rate, the real interest rate level and the agricultural labor cost of the labor market from the angle of the real exchange rate of the financial market, and points out that the inflation is promoted by the farmers' grain saving behavior and investment. Under the condition of Lewis turning point, the price of agricultural products increases through the increase of labor cost, which leads to the rise of general price level, and the degree of influence continues to rise. After theoretical analysis of these hypotheses, VAR model is used to carry out empirical research. It is pointed out that the demand side is the main reason for price level change, and the supply side is the main reason for the change of agricultural product price. Financial market distortions should be reduced, real interest rates and the value of the renminbi should be raised to curb inflation, and agricultural inputs and production patterns should be improved on the supply side, combining rising labour costs with technological advances. At the same time, the use of international agricultural markets to stabilize domestic prices.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目(09BJL052) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(09YJA790026);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(12JJD790008)
【分类号】：F323.7;F822.5;F224

【共引文献】