实际汇率与经济增长：中国视角下的研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 04:46

本文选题：实际汇率 + 经济增长　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,学术界开始关注和研究实际汇率在经济增长中的深层次作用,认为实际汇率水平的改变可以通过调整经济体内部结构和实际资源来影响经济增长,并通过实证检验证明了这种观点。对于中国实际汇率问题的讨论很多,但真正探究实际汇率对于中国经济增长作用的内在机制的却不常见。本文在前人研究成果之上,立足于中国的经济特点,从理论和实证两方面研究实际汇率对于中国经济增长的影响,认为实际汇率水平的上升(贬值)对促进中国的经济增长有重要作用。首先,本文构建了两部门模型,通过理论模型分析实际汇率,资本投入,劳动力投入和两部门产出之间的关系。文章通过模型认为实际汇率贬值能够促进经济增长,并解释了具体的影响机制。外部实际汇率可以通过内部实际汇率和可贸易品之间的实际汇率两个组成部分对经济体施加内部和外部影响。外部实际汇率贬值可以从供给面和需求面对于两部门产出产生正面作用,同时提高可贸易品部门的劳动力投入、资本投入和两部门的需求水平。然后,本文基于中国31个省份地区1993年到2012年的面板数据实证分析了内部实际汇率和地区人均实际GDP增长率之间的关系,发现内部实际汇率贬值能够显著的提高人均实际GDP增长率,并且这种影响是稳健性。同时,文章通过分组后的实证分析发现,内部实际汇率贬值对于经济增长的促进作用主要存在于沿海地区,内陆地区内部实际汇率贬值的影响是不显著的,文章对此作出了合理解释。最后,本文讨论了有关实际汇率的政策问题。很多学者从理论和实证在一定程度上支持了实际汇率的政策工具性；如果实际汇率作为政策工具,贬值和低估政策是存在成本的,在适当的时机和条件下应该采取合适的步骤进行调整和退出这些思考对中国的政策当局有一定的启示意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the academic community has begun to pay attention to and study the deep role of real exchange rate in economic growth. It is believed that the change of real exchange rate level can affect economic growth by adjusting the internal structure and actual resources of the economy. And through the empirical test to prove this view. There are many discussions about China's real exchange rate, but it is not common to really explore the internal mechanism of the real exchange rate's effect on China's economic growth. Based on the previous research results and based on China's economic characteristics, this paper studies the impact of real exchange rate on China's economic growth from both theoretical and empirical aspects. It is considered that the rise of real exchange rate plays an important role in promoting China's economic growth. First of all, this paper constructs a two-sector model to analyze the relationship between the real exchange rate, capital input, labor input and the output of the two sectors through the theoretical model. This paper argues that the real exchange rate depreciation can promote economic growth through the model, and explains the specific influence mechanism. The external real exchange rate can exert internal and external influence on the economy through the real exchange rate between the internal real exchange rate and the real exchange rate between tradable goods. The external real exchange rate depreciation can produce positive effects on the output of the two sectors from the supply side and demand, and at the same time raise the labor input, capital input and the demand level of the two sectors in the tradable goods sector. Then, based on the panel data from 1993 to 2012 in 31 provinces of China, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between the internal real exchange rate and the real GDP growth rate per capita. It is found that the internal real exchange rate depreciation can significantly increase the per capita real GDP growth rate, and this impact is robust. At the same time, the paper finds that the internal real exchange rate depreciation mainly promotes the economic growth in the coastal areas, and the effect of the internal real exchange rate depreciation on the inland areas is not significant. This article has made the reasonable explanation to this. Finally, this paper discusses the policy of real exchange rate. Many scholars theoretically and empirically support the policy instrumentality of the real exchange rate. If the real exchange rate is used as a policy tool, it is costly to devalue and underestimate the policy. Under the appropriate time and conditions, we should take appropriate steps to adjust and withdraw from these thoughts, which have certain enlightenment significance to the Chinese policy authorities.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124

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