货币政策传导系统稳定性、脆性及熵关系——基于耗散结构和突变的理论及实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-25 22:52

本文选题：货币政策传导系统 + 耗散结构　；参考：《系统工程》2012年04期

【摘要】：货币政策传导系统是一类典型的复杂经济系统,其演化机制与耗散结构具有同态性。本文首次将耗散结构理论中低浓度三分子模型引入货币政策传导系统演化机理研究,利用唯象方法建立货币政策传导系统演化的动力学模型,得出系统形成耗散结构的判据。其次建立货币政策传导系统基于突变理论的脆性综合评价模型,利用1993～2010年中国货币政策传导的基础数据对货币政策传导系统演化模型的理论结论进行验证。通过实证分析发现,中国的经济发展和货币政策的实践与货币政策传导系统演化的理论描述是吻合的,并为货币政策传导系统演化的理论模型和逻辑结论提供了现实性依据,这也说明货币政策传导系统演化的理论模型不仅具有重要理论意义,而且具有较高实践价值。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy transmission system is a typical complex economic system, its evolution mechanism and dissipative structure have homomorphism. In this paper, the low concentration trimolecular model of dissipative structure theory is introduced into the evolution mechanism of monetary policy conduction system for the first time, the dynamic model of monetary policy conduction system evolution is established by phenomenological method, and the criterion of system forming dissipative structure is obtained. Secondly, a brittle comprehensive evaluation model of monetary policy transmission system based on catastrophe theory is established, and the theoretical conclusions of the evolution model of monetary policy transmission system are verified by using the basic data of monetary policy transmission in China from 1993 to 2010. Through empirical analysis, it is found that China's economic development and monetary policy practice are consistent with the theoretical description of the evolution of monetary policy transmission system, and provide a realistic basis for the theoretical model and logical conclusion of the evolution of monetary policy transmission system. This also shows that the theoretical model of monetary policy transmission system evolution is not only of great theoretical significance, but also of high practical value.
【作者单位】：上海理工大学管理学院;
【基金】：上海市重点学科建设项目(S30504) 上海市研究生教育创新计划项目(JWCXSL1021)
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

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