外商直接投资对广东省经济增长方式的影响效应分析

发布时间：2018-06-27 13:18

本文选题：外商直接投资 + 广东省经济增长方式　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：长久以来，，外商直接投资对东道国经济的影响效应问题是学术研究的一大焦点。然而相关研究大多是针对外商直接投资单个或若干方面的影响效应，如生产率溢出效应、技术溢出效应、出口溢出效应、对经济增长的直接影响等，而对于外商直接投资是否会对经济增长方式的转变起到贡献作用，则缺乏深入与系统的研究。如今在我国国内资本供给已由短缺转为过剩、生产要素价格也不断上升的背景下，研究外商直接投资对经济增长方式转变的影响效应问题则显得尤为必要，可以为当下外资利用相关争论的解决提供参考依据。广东省是我国最早引进外资的省份，自改革开放以来，其在引进及利用外资方面一直取得了令人瞩目的成就。近二十年来，其实际利用外商直接投资额占其实际利用外资金额的比重一直处于80%的水平以上，2008年以来甚至达到了90%以上。截至2012年底，其实际利用外商直接投资金额累计达到2988.01亿美元，从1979年的0.31亿美元增长到2012年的235.49亿美元，成为推动广东省经济增长的一大动力。虽然多年来的招商引资的确带动了其经济飞速增长，但诸多问题也在此过程中日益呈现。基于此，有必要研究其外资利用的质量水平以及外商直接投资是否为其经济从过度依靠资本、劳动等要素投入的粗放型增长向以技术改进、生产效率提升等为驱动的集约型增长转变起到了带动作用，这将是关乎广东省经济可持续发展的重要问题，同时对研究我国其他正在招商引资的地区的外资利用问题以及政策引导方向也具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文首先结合相关数据与图表对广东省经济增长与外资利用的现状及特点进行分析，从中探寻外商直接投资对广东省经济发展的总体效应；再基于索洛剩余法的思想，对广东省的全要素生产率进行了测算；又根据“全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率”这一指标是否随时间推移呈上升趋势来衡量经济增长方式是否出现了由“要素积累型”向“TFP增进型”的转变，进而通过建立计量模型从实证的角度分析了外商直接投资对广东省经济增长方式的影响效应。本文的实证研究成果与结论如下：（1）广东省全要素生产率的变化率与全社会固定资产投资中内资比重的变化率走势差异巨大甚至几近相反，而与全社会固定资产投资中的外资比重变化率具有相对一致的变化趋势，可见并非所有的资本投入都会对全要素生产率的变化产生负面影响。（2）广东省的经济增长方式在上世纪90年代具有明显的“要素积累型”特征，而进入本世纪之后，其经济增长开始逐步向“TFP增进型”增长方式转变，但近几年由于其经济增长率有所下降而同时资本投入速率仍持续增长，全要素生产率对其经济增长的“增进”作用有所减弱，而要素积累的作用有所增加。所以，在经济增长出现下行趋势的情况下，若仍维持较高的资本投入增长速度，将不利于广东省实现经济增长方式从“要素积累型”向“TFP增进型”转变。（3）若总投资中外商直接投资的比重随时间推移呈上升趋势，则将有利于广东省经济增长方式从“要素积累型”向“TFP增进型”转变，可见总体而言外商直接投资对广东省经济增长方式的优化转型具有一定的正面影响。（4）若来自非港澳台地区的外商直接投资相对于港澳台直接投资具有更快的增长速度，从而使得二者在总投资中的比重分配更趋平衡，则广东省经济增长方式将更趋向于朝“TFP增进型”靠拢；反之，当港澳台直接投资具有更快的增长速度，使得两者在总投资中的比重差距更为扩大时，则不利于广东省经济增长方式的优化转型。可见从促进广东省经济增长方式转变的角度来说，来自非港澳台地区的外商直接投资要比港澳台直接投资来得“优质”。（5）自主创新能力的提高对广东省经济增长方式的优化转型具有极为显著的促进作用，而贸易开放度对广东省经济增长方式的影响则较为不显著，甚至开放度越大，反而越不利于其经济增长方式的优化转型。针对广东省的经济发展现状以及利用外资过程中显现的一些问题，结合本文实证研究所得结论，本文最后就广东省如何更好地利用外资与实现经济增长方式的优化转型提出了若干政策建议。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the impact of FDI on the host country's economy is a major focus of academic research. However, most of the related studies are aimed at the single or certain effects of FDI, such as productivity spillover effect, technology spillover effect, export spillover effect, direct impact on economic growth and so on. Whether the direct investment of commercial direct investment will contribute to the transformation of the mode of economic growth, it lacks in-depth and systematic research. In the context of China's domestic capital supply from shortage to surplus and the rising price of production factors, the study of the effect of foreign direct investment on the transformation of economic growth mode is particularly important. It is necessary to provide reference for resolving the current dispute about foreign capital utilization.
Guangdong province is the first province to introduce foreign capital in China. Since the reform and opening up, it has made remarkable achievements in the introduction and utilization of foreign capital. In the past twenty years, the proportion of its actual use of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the actual amount of foreign capital has been above the level of 80%, and it has even reached over 90% since 2008. By the end of 2012, its actual use of foreign direct investment reached $298 billion 801 million, rising from $31 million in 1979 to $23 billion 549 million in 2012. It has become a major driving force for economic growth in Guangdong province. Although investment and investment have indeed led to rapid economic growth over the years, many problems are also in the process. Based on this, it is necessary to study the quality level of the utilization of foreign capital and whether the foreign direct investment is driven by the intensive growth of its economy from overrelying on capital, labor and other factors to the intensive growth of technological improvement and production efficiency, which will be related to the economic sustainability of Guangdong Province. It also has important theoretical and practical significance to study the problem of the utilization of foreign investment and the direction of policy guidance in other areas which are attracting investment and investment in China.
This paper first analyzes the current situation and characteristics of economic growth and foreign capital utilization in Guangdong province with relevant data and charts, and explores the overall effect of foreign direct investment on the economic development of Guangdong Province, and then calculates the total factor productivity of Guangdong Province Based on the thought of Solow surplus method; and according to the "total factor productivity" Whether the contribution rate of economic growth "is on the rise with time to measure whether the mode of economic growth has changed from" factor accumulation "to" TFP enhancement ", and then through the establishment of a quantitative model, the effect of FDI on the economic growth mode of Guangdong province is analyzed.
The results and conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) the change rate of total factor productivity in Guangdong province and the change rate of the proportion of domestic capital in the investment of the whole society are quite different or even opposite, but the change rate of the proportion of foreign capital in the investment of the whole society is relatively consistent, so it is not obvious that all the capital input will change to the total factor productivity. There is a negative impact.
(2) the economic growth mode of Guangdong province has a distinct "factor accumulation" feature in the 90s of last century, and after this century, its economic growth began to change gradually to the "TFP enhancement" growth mode, but in recent years, the rate of economic growth has declined and the capital input rate continues to increase, and the total factor productivity is in the last few years. The role of "enhancement" to its economic growth has been weakened, and the role of factor accumulation has increased. Therefore, if the downward trend of economic growth is in the downward trend, it is not conducive to the transformation of Guangdong's economic growth mode from "factor accumulation" to "TFP enhancement" if the growth rate of capital investment is still maintained.
(3) if the proportion of FDI in total investment increases with time, it will be beneficial to the transformation of Guangdong's economic growth mode from "factor accumulation" to "TFP enhancement". In general, foreign direct investment has a positive effect on the optimization transformation of the economic growth mode of Guangdong province.
(4) if FDI from non Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan areas has a faster growth rate than the direct investment of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the proportion of the proportion of the two in the total investment will be more balanced, then the mode of economic growth in Guangdong will tend to closer to the "TFP enhancement"; on the other hand, the direct investment of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will increase faster. Speed, which makes the difference in the proportion of the total investment more expanded, is not conducive to the optimization transformation of the mode of economic growth in Guangdong province. From the angle of promoting the transformation of the economic growth mode of Guangdong Province, foreign direct investment from the non Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan areas is more "better" than the direct investment of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
(5) the improvement of independent innovation ability has a very significant promoting effect on the optimization transformation of the economic growth mode of Guangdong Province, while the influence of trade openness on the economic growth mode of Guangdong is not significant, even the greater the openness, the more unfavorable to the optimization transformation of its economic growth formula.
In view of the current situation of economic development in Guangdong province and some problems appearing in the process of utilizing foreign capital, combined with the conclusions of this empirical study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to make better use of foreign capital and to realize the optimization transformation of economic growth mode in Guangdong province.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124.1

【参考文献】