实际外部财富、劳动生产率与人民币实际汇率——基于跨期一般均衡理论的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-16 12:32

【摘要】：本文首先构建关于实际外部财富、劳动生产率、贸易条件与实际汇率关系的跨时一般均衡理论模型,然后利用1981-2009年相关时间序列数据,检验中国实际外部财富、贸易条件以及国内外两部门劳动生产率对人民币实际汇率的影响。结果表明,从长期看,中国实际外部财富的急剧攀升会引发人民币实际汇率快速升值;中国贸易部门相对非贸易部门劳动生产率上升会促使人民币实际汇率升值,而国外贸易部门相对非贸易部门的劳动生产率提高则会降低人民币实际汇率,净效应表现为劳动生产率并不能解释20世纪80年代以来人民币实际汇率的长期波动;中国贸易条件对人民币实际汇率的影响不明显。短期内,中国实际外部财富对人民币实际汇率的作用关系与长期一致。根据上述结论,本文提出了保持人民币实际汇率相对稳定的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we first build a cross-temporal general equilibrium model on the relationship between real external wealth, labor productivity, terms of trade and real exchange rate, and then use the relevant time series data from 1981 to 2009 to test China's actual external wealth. The impact of terms of trade and labor productivity of both domestic and foreign sectors on the real exchange rate of RMB. The results show that, in the long run, a sharp rise in China's real external wealth will lead to a rapid appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB, and a rise in labor productivity in China's trade sector, relative to the non-trade sector, will promote the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the renminbi. The increase of labor productivity in foreign trade sector will reduce the real exchange rate of RMB. The net effect is that the labor productivity can not explain the long-term fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate since 1980s. The effect of China's terms of trade on the real exchange rate of RMB is not obvious. In the short term, the effect of China's real external wealth on the real exchange rate of the renminbi is consistent with the long term. According to the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to maintain the relative stability of RMB real exchange rate.
【作者单位】：深圳大学经济学院;南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“依托战略性新兴产业加快长三角转变经济发展方式问题研究”(12BJL080) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“江苏出口竞争力研究”(2011ZDXM005) 教育部基地重大项目“全球经济变化中长三角地区经济增长模式转型研究”(2009JJD790022) 国家社科基金项目“人口年龄结构、高储蓄率与外贸失衡的传导机制及相关政策研究”(11CJY030) 深圳大学人文社科基金项目“中国贸易顺差变动机制、利益分配与战略调整研究”(11QNCG17)的资助
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F249.22

【参考文献】