我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间的关联性研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 11:10

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国的货币政策出现了多次紧缩和扩张之间的交替,形成了显著的货币政策周期。下行经济周期往往都是发生在货币紧缩政策结束之后。为了度量货币政策作用效果,我们需要建立货币政策周期与经济周期之间的内在关联机制,并从众多的反映宏观经济状态的指标从中选取合适的预测指标来反映其内在机制。通过实证检验发现,我国自1996年以来共出现了3次产出增长率的下降,而这3次产出降低都发生在紧缩性货币政策结束之后。这说明我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间存在密切关联,货币政策操作也存在相机选择的内生属性,并且M1同比增速和金融机构新增短期贷款能够更准确地预测在紧缩性货币政策实施之后是否会出现下行经济周期。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's monetary policy has changed between multiple tightening and expansion, forming a significant monetary policy cycle. The downward economic cycle often occurs after the end of monetary tightening. In order to measure the effect of monetary policy, we need to establish the internal correlation mechanism between monetary policy cycle and economic cycle, and select appropriate prediction indicators from many indicators reflecting macroeconomic state to reflect its internal mechanism. The empirical results show that since 1996, there have been three declines in output growth rate in China, and these three declines occurred after the end of tight monetary policy. This indicates that there is a close relationship between the monetary policy cycle and the economic cycle in China, and that the monetary policy operation also has the endogenous attributes of camera selection. And M1 growth and new short-term loans from financial institutions can more accurately predict whether there will be a downward economic cycle after tightening monetary policy.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&006) 国家自然科学基金项目(70971055)资助
【分类号】：F822.0;F124;F224

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