行业因素对货币政策信贷传导渠道的影响

发布时间：2018-07-26 18:14

【摘要】：本文先从理论回顾入手,介绍了货币政策传导的三种途径及各自的作用机理,其中着重介绍了信贷传导渠道。考虑到信贷渠道的三个前提假设,本文分析了我国具备信贷传导渠道的必要条件,认为我国企业融资途径已经发生了较大变化,但以银行为主的间接融资方式依然占主导地位。另外,金融机构的资金运用与资金来源比较单一,普通居民存款利率尚未放开,利率市场化正处于攻坚阶段。影响我国银行信贷渠道有效性的因素有很多,行业因素无疑是其中值得考察的一种。因此在进行实证分析前,对我国的产业结构现状、产业调整升级情况以及信贷政策对产业结构调整的影响进行了全面的分析与梳理。基于以上的理论与现实情况分析,实证部分在Michael Ehrmann(2001)的银行贷款函数的基础上,引入了中层行业视角,选取了60家商业银行在2002-2012年十年度的年度非平衡面板数据,考察了全行业贷款、工业贷款以及房地产行业贷款的影响因素,来探讨这三类贷款对货币政策变化和产业自身信贷需求变化的反应。研究结果表明行业因素在一定程度上影响了银行信贷资金在行业间的配置。从行业自身因素来讲,不同的行业其信贷需求不同,在模型中则表现为各行业的产出水平与价格水平的变化不同,即不同的行业有着不同的信贷周期；就货币政策对行业贷款的影响效果来看,也存在着行业间的差异。另外,通过对银行微观特征与货币政策代理变量的交叉项的观测,验证了信贷传导渠道在我国的存在。同时,还发现银行微观特征中对货币政策的异质性反应仅依赖于银行的规模特征。最后根据本文的研究提出一些相关的政策建议,主要包括：进一步完善我国的信贷传导渠道、对不同行业实行有差异的货币政策、注重货币政策与其它政策的协调配合等。
[Abstract]:This paper begins with the review of the theory, introduces three ways of monetary policy transmission and their respective mechanism of action, and emphasizes on the credit transmission channel. Considering the three presupposition of credit channel, this paper analyzes the necessary condition of credit transmission channel in our country, and thinks that the financing channel of Chinese enterprises has changed greatly, but the indirect financing mode, which is dominated by banks, still dominates. In addition, the fund utilization and fund source of the financial institution is relatively single, the ordinary resident deposit interest rate has not been liberalized, and the interest rate marketization is at the critical stage. There are many factors influencing the validity of bank credit channels in China. Therefore, before the empirical analysis, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis and combing on the status quo of industrial structure, the situation of industrial adjustment and upgrading and the impact of credit policy on industrial structure adjustment in China. Based on the above theoretical and practical analysis, based on the bank loan function of Michael Ehrmann (2001, this paper introduces the middle-level industry perspective, and selects 60 commercial banks' annual unbalanced panel data in the decade of 2002-2012. This paper investigates the factors affecting the loan of the whole industry, industrial loan and real estate industry, to explore the response of these three kinds of loans to the change of monetary policy and the change of industry's own credit demand. The results show that the industry factors affect the allocation of bank credit funds in the industry to some extent. In terms of industry factors, different industries have different credit demand. In the model, the output level and price level of different industries are different, that is, different industries have different credit cycles. In terms of the effect of monetary policy on industry loans, there are also differences between industries. In addition, the existence of credit transmission channel in China is verified by observing the cross terms between the microscopic characteristics of banks and the variables of monetary policy agency. At the same time, it is found that the heterogeneous response to monetary policy in the microcosmic characteristics of banks only depends on the size characteristics of banks. Finally, according to the research of this paper, some relevant policy suggestions are put forward, including: further improving the credit transmission channel of our country, implementing different monetary policy to different industries, paying attention to the coordination of monetary policy and other policies and so on.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F822.0

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