杠杆率管理框架：理论与应用
发布时间：2018-08-01 13:42
【摘要】：2007年爆发的金融危机深刻地改变了人们对于金融因素在整个经济体系中有关作用的认识,并促使金融实务界和理论界在金融监管、货币政策以及金融与经济的作用机制等领域进行多方面的反思与革新。在金融监管方面,金融危机所产生的巨大破坏力引发了全球范围内金融监管理念的重大转变,危机之前宽松化、自由化的监管方向得到较大程度的逆转。在这样的背景下,各国监管当局纷纷出台更为严厉的监管措施,并随着巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的推出开始着手建立更为严格和全面的监管框架。立足于单个机构稳健性的微观审慎监管已经不能满足新的形势下风险管理的要求,以整体视角将全部金融体系纳入监管范围的宏观审慎监管理念已经日渐兴起并慢慢开始走向规范。微观审慎监管需要宏观审慎监管的引导,宏观审慎监管需要微观审慎监管的支持,两类监管需要更多的搭配与更好的融合已经成为当前监管理念的共识,而如何将微观审慎监管与宏观审慎监管更好的结合起来以预防和控制系统性风险的爆发和传染也正是目前人们最为关注的经济话题之一。在货币政策方面,旧有的框架正在遭受越来越多的挑战,货币政策框架的转型与升级已经迫在眉睫。危机之前以物价稳定为主的最终目标正在遭受越来越多的质疑,货币政策也应该适度关注金融稳定问题已经慢慢成为新的共识。进一步的,如果货币政策确实应该关注金融稳定的话,货币政策应该如何与宏观审慎监管的框架更好的融合?以利率为主的单一工具调控体系能否在新的环境下较好的行使货币政策的职能?新的政策工具能否被开发出来?既有的政策工具能否发挥更好的效力?传导机制是否已经在既有认识的基础上发生了某些或大或小的改变?等等这一系列重大的理论问题都有待我们更为深入的研究。然而仔细梳理目前有关宏观审慎政策的有关研究我们却发现,立足于整个宏观审慎框架对其监管理念、最终目标、构成要素、工具构成以及框架实施等方面做全景式分析的研究较多,但是围绕着宏观审慎的目标来深入的挖掘其某一类政策工具的角色定位、传导机制、实施框架等方面内容的研究却较为缺乏。实际上,在目前宏观审慎的监管理念与实施框架已经慢慢走向成熟的背景下,这类工作往往却具有更为现实而重大的意义,因为宏观审慎政策的本质实际上就是一套政策合集,它在具体实施的过程中是由一个个更为具体的子政策框架构成,而不同的子政策也往往具有较大的差异性。因此,笼统地以整个政策合集为对象来讨论它的政策构建与实施容易陷入泛泛而谈的窘境,这反而不如将精力集中于某一类子政策上对其深入挖掘更为具体和明晰。正是出于这样的考虑,本文试图选择杠杆率这一具有较长历史的政策工具进行研究,通过对杠杆率的决定机制、杠杆率管理的相关影响、杠杆率管理的指标选择、风险评估、政策校准、与其他政策的关系以及机制设计等方面进行深入挖掘,最终来构建一个围绕着杠杆率这一政策工具为核心的合理可行的管理框架。杠杆率指标作为一种横跨货币政策、微观审慎监管与宏观审慎监管的政策工具,我相信关于它的深入挖掘对于各类政策的实施必将具有非常重大的启示意义。同时,在巴塞尔协议Ⅲ新引进的杠杆率要求即将开始在全球范围内正式施行的关键时期,相信本文关于杠杆率管理框架的探讨对于巴塞尔协议中杠杆率监管的相关方面也必将具有较大的参考价值。为完成杠杆率管理框架的构建,本论文分为9章依次展开论述。首先,我们在第1章讨论了本论文研究的背景与研究目的,揭示了本论文的研究意义、研究内容以及主要的创新和不足。然后在第2章我们首先对本文中所使用杠杆率以及杠杆率管理框架的涵义进行了明确的界定,然后又围绕着我们所关注的几个核心问题回顾了相关的研究文献。之后,为探究杠杆率周期的变化规律以及杠杆率变化对经济的各类影响,我们在第3章首先从长期的视角对总杠杆率水平的演变状况进行了回顾和梳理,然后还分别针对居民部门、非金融企业部门、金融部门以及政府部门的杠杆率变化状况进行了结构性分析。之后,我们还讨论了次贷危机以后全球范围内的杠杆率变化状况。此外,在本章的末尾我们还重点总结了杠杆率周期与经济周期演变关系、去杠杆过程的相关经验,并用描述性的方法详细分析了杠杆率的变化对产出、物价水平以及投资等宏观经济变量的影响,从而先从定性方面对杠杆率在经济周期中的角色进行了揭示。在从定性方面回顾了杠杆率周期演变和其对经济影响的基础上,第4章我们开始从定量方面探讨杠杆率内生决定机制这一核心问题。为此,我们首先在一个抽象的抵押品资产市场上探讨了杠杆率的均衡决定过程,之后交代了杠杆率周期理论的背景,并在此基础上构建了一个杠杆率周期分析框架以分析杠杆率变动所产生的一系列微观层面的影响,而且在本章的最后基于这些分析我们还以美国的次贷危机为例对杠杆率周期机制的运用过程进行了具体的阐述,并对杠杆率周期管理的相关问题进行了一些思考。在第4章之后,为最终完成杠杆率管理框架的构建,我们还在第5章从演变历程与理论推演两个角度对杠杆率管理可能产生的影响进行了详细的探讨。从已有的杠杆率实施经验来看,虽然各国在实施的过程中面临了很多的难题和不确定性,但是总体来讲杠杆率管理政策已经取得了较为理想的效果。在此之后,为便于从理论上讨论杠杆率管理的影响,我们从信用供给端与信用需求端两个角度来分别展开分析。在供给端我们基于Kiema和Jokivuolle(2014)的模型构建了一个包含风险加权资本充足率与杠杆率双重资本要求的理论模型,在完全竞争的银行业市场结构下讨论了杠杆率监管对资产价格以及风险状况的影响。通过分析我们发现,杠杆率监管的引入能够促使整个银行业朝着风险专业化经营的方向发展,如果监管杠杆率的水平设定比较合理的话杠杆率监管的引入确实可以抑制资产价格的上涨,并且还可以降低整个银行业的风险状况,即杠杆率管理政策存在着“价格效应”与“风险效应”。这就从理论上说明了我们可以通过对杠杆率的控制有效预防杠杆率周期的产生和发展。但是如果杠杆率的监管水平设定的过低或过高都会对经济体系产生不利的影响,因此,这也要求我们必须非常审慎地设定杠杆率的监管水平以最大程度地平衡监管的收益和成本。而在信用需求端,我们通过构建一个简单的包含融资约束的跨期优化模型,以贷款价值比(LTV)上限管理为例来探讨了在信用需求端实施杠杆率管理的理论效果。经过求解与对均衡状态的分析我们发现,贷款价值比上限管理政策除了可以直接作用于资产杠杆率即存在“直接效应”之外,还会对抵押品需求产生正向的影响,即还具有“信用需求效应”。另外,在此部分我们还从定性方面讨论了信用需求端杠杆率管理的影响,指出了杠杆率的定性管理可以通过“稀缺性效应”与“结构性效应”对抵押品市场产生多种影响。在这些讨论的基础上,我们在第6章和第7章正式开始了杠杆率管理框架的构建工作。为此,我们在第6章先对杠杆率管理的政策含义及其构成要素进行明确界定,并详细讨论了杠杆率指标的选取与测算问题。之后我们又从杠杆率角度构建了对系统性风险进行评估的框架,此外在本章的最后两节我们还对杠杆率管理工具的选择以及设定与调整进行了详细的讨论,以便为杠杆率管理工具自身的充分运用提供指导。在完成这些工作的基础上,我们在第7章开始将杠杆率管理框架的构建与实施拓展到杠杆率政策与其他政策之间的关系这一层面,基于杠杆率工具的交叉性特征,我们首先着重对杠杆率政策与风险加权资本充足率、货币政策、财政政策这三大政策的关系进行了深入的探讨,在此之后还对杠杆率政策的机制设计问题进行了论证。这样,在本章的最后一部分,我们最终提出了杠杆率管理的政策框架,从而就初步完成了本论文构建杠杆率管理框架的主要目的。在完成了这些主要工作之后,最后我们在第8章主要讨论杠杆率管理框架在中国的运用这一问题。沿着第6章与第7章所构建的杠杆率管理框架,在此章中我们分析了中国各部门的杠杆率水平并从杠杆率的视角对我国当前的系统性风险状况进行评估,回顾了我国银行业杠杆率监管的演变历程和实施状况,并试图运用杠杆率周期机制对A股和楼市最近一轮的周期运行给出一个杠杆率视角的解释。除此之外,我们还对我国银行业以及房地产市场杠杆率管理的政策效果进行了实证检验。通过对实证结果的分析我们发现,自从我国银行业引入杠杆率监管政策以及房地产市场引入第二套房首付比上限动态变动政策以来,我国的信贷增长得到了较好的控制,而且银行的风险承担行为也受到了较好的约束,应该说我国杠杆率政策的实证结果较好的支持了本文前几章对于杠杆率管理效果的论证,同时也说明我国应该进一步加强信用供给端和需求端的杠杆率管理以更好的预防系统性风险的产生和传播。在第8章的末尾,我们还在第6、7章的基础上结合我国的实际情况讨论了我国杠杆率管理框架的构建问题并提出了若干政策启示。最后,在第9章,我们对本论文的全部内容进行了总结并提出了若干有待解决的问题和进一步的研究方向。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis, which broke out in 2007, has profoundly changed people's understanding of the role of financial factors in the whole economic system, and promoted the financial practice and theorists to rethink and innovate in many fields, such as financial supervision, monetary policy and the mechanism of financial and economic action. In financial supervision, the financial crisis is produced. In this context, the regulatory authorities of various countries have introduced more stringent regulatory measures and started more stringent with the introduction of the Basel Agreement III. Micro prudential supervision, based on the robustness of individual institutions, has been unable to meet the requirements of risk management under the new situation. Macro prudential supervision concept of integrating the whole financial system into the scope of supervision with a holistic perspective has been rising and slowly beginning to go to the standard. Micro prudential supervision needs macro Prudential supervision. The guidance of the management, macro prudential supervision needs the support of micro prudential supervision. The two types of supervision need more collocation and better integration has become the consensus of the current regulatory concept, and how to combine micro prudential supervision and macro prudential supervision better to prevent and control the outbreak and infection of system risk is also the present person. One of the most important economic topics of concern is that in monetary policy, the old framework is facing more and more challenges, the transition and upgrading of the monetary policy framework are imminent. The final target of price stability before the crisis is being questioned more and more, and the currency policy should also give moderate attention to the problem of financial stability. It is a new consensus. Further, if monetary policy should pay attention to financial stability, how should monetary policy be better integrated with the framework of macro prudential supervision? Can an interest rate based single tool control system be able to perform the function of monetary policy better in the new environment and whether new policy tools can be opened? Can the existing policy tools play a better role? Does the transmission mechanism have undergone some or small or small changes on the basis of understanding? And so on, this series of major theoretical issues need to be further studied. Now, based on the macro Prudential framework, there are many studies on the panoramic analysis of its supervision concept, the ultimate goal, the constituent elements, the composition of the tools and the implementation of the framework, but the research on the role of the role, the transmission mechanism and the framework of the implementation of a certain kind of policy tools around the macro Prudential goal. In fact, in the context of the current macro prudential regulatory concept and implementation framework, this kind of work is often more realistic and significant, because the essence of the macro Prudential policy is in fact a set of policies, which are more specific in the process of implementation. The sub policy framework is composed of different sub policies, and the different sub policies often have great differences. Therefore, it is easier to discuss its policy construction and implementation in general. In this regard, this paper tries to choose a policy tool with a long history of leverage ratio, through a thorough excavation of the decision mechanism of leverage ratio, the related influence of leverage ratio management, the index selection of leverage rate management, risk assessment, policy calibration, the relationship with other policies and mechanism design. Building a reasonable and feasible management framework centered around the policy tool of leverage ratio. Leverage index as a policy tool across monetary policy, micro prudential supervision and macro prudential supervision, I believe it will have great implications for the implementation of various policies. The newly introduced leverage ratio of Searl Protocol III requires a critical period of implementation in the global scope. It is believed that the discussion of leverage management framework in this paper will also have great reference value for the related aspects of leverage rate regulation in Basel agreement. In order to complete the construction of the bar rate management framework, this paper is divided into 9 chapters. First, in the first chapter, we discuss the background and research purpose of this paper, and reveal the significance of the research, the content and the main innovation and deficiency in this paper. Then in the second chapter, we define the meaning of leverage ratio and leverage ratio management framework in this paper, and then circumference. In the third chapter, we reviewed and combed the evolution of the total leverage ratio from a long-term perspective, and then respectively aimed at the residents' department. A structural analysis of the changes in leverage ratio in the non financial sector, the financial sector and the government sector. After that, we also discussed the global change of leverage after the subprime crisis. In addition, at the end of this chapter, we also focused on the relationship between the cycle of leverage and the evolution of the economic cycle, the phase of the deleveraging process. The effects of leverage rate changes on the macroeconomic variables such as output, price level and investment are analyzed with a descriptive approach, and the role of leverage ratio in the economic cycle is revealed qualitatively. The qualitative aspects of the cycle evolution of leverage ratio and its economic impact are reviewed in the qualitative aspect, Fourth In chapter, we begin to discuss the core problem of the endogenous decision mechanism of leverage ratio in quantitative terms. For this reason, we first discuss the equilibrium determination process of leverage ratio in an abstract collateral asset market, and then explain the background of the leverage cycle theory, and build a framework of leverage cycle analysis on this basis for analysis. At the end of this chapter, we also take the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as an example to illustrate the application process of the leverage rate cycle mechanism, and consider some problems related to the cycle management of leverage ratio. After the fourth chapter, it is finally completed. We also discuss the possible influence of leverage ratio management in the fifth chapter from the two angles of evolution and theoretical deduction. From the experience of leverage rate implementation, although many difficult problems and uncertainties are faced by countries in the process of implementation, the leverage ratio management is generally speaking. In order to discuss the effect of leverage management in theory, we analyze the effect of the credit supply side and the credit demand side in two angles. At the supply side, we build a risk weighted capital adequacy ratio and the horizontal bar based on the model of Kiema and Jokivuolle (2014). The theoretical model of the double capital requirement of the rod rate is to discuss the effect of leverage rate regulation on asset prices and risk conditions under a fully competitive banking market structure. Through analysis we find that the introduction of leverage regulation can promote the whole banking industry to develop in the direction of risk specialization, if the level of leverage ratio is regulated. The introduction of a more reasonable level of leverage regulation can indeed inhibit the rise in asset prices and also reduce the risk of the entire banking sector, that is, the "price effect" and "risk effects" in leverage management policies, which theoretically shows that we can effectively prevent leverage by controlling leverage. But if the level of leverage is too low or too high to have an adverse impact on the economy, it also requires that we have to carefully set the level of leverage to maximize the balance of revenue and costs. A simple cross term optimization model containing financing constraints is taken as an example of the loan value ratio (LTV) upper limit management as an example to explore the theoretical effect of leveraging management at the credit demand side. In addition to the direct effect, it also has a positive impact on the demand for collateral, that is, the "credit demand effect". In addition, in this part, we also discuss the influence of the credit demand end leverage management in the qualitative aspect, and point out that the qualitative management of the leverage ratio can be used by the "scarcity effect" and "structural effect" to the collateral. On the basis of these discussions, we formally started the construction of the leverage ratio management framework in the sixth and seventh chapters. Therefore, in the sixth chapter, we first clearly defined the policy implications and the components of leverage ratio management, and discussed the problem of the selection and calculation of the bar rate index in detail. In the last two sections of this chapter, we also discuss the selection and setting and adjustment of leverage management tools in detail so as to provide guidance for the full use of leverage management tools. On the basis of the completion of these work, we are seventh This chapter begins with the construction and implementation of leverage ratio management framework to the relationship between leverage policy and other policies. Based on the cross characteristics of leverage ratio tools, we first focus on the relationship between the three policies of leverage ratio policy and risk weighted capital adequacy ratio, monetary policy and fiscal policy. After this, we also demonstrate the mechanism design of leverage ratio policy. In the last part of this chapter, we finally put forward the policy framework of leverage ratio management, thus completing the main purpose of the framework of leverage ratio management in this paper. After the completion of these main tasks, we are finally in the eighth chapter. This paper discusses the application of leverage ratio management framework in China. Along the sixth and seventh chapters, the leverage ratio management framework is constructed. In this chapter, we analyze the level of leverage ratio in various sectors of China and evaluate the current systemic risk situation in China from the perspective of leverage ratio and review the evolution of China's banking lever rate regulation. The process and implementation situation, and try to use the leverage cycle mechanism to explain the recent cycle of A shares and the real estate market cycle. In addition, we also have an empirical test on the policy effect of leverage management in China's banking industry and the real estate market. China's credit growth has been well controlled since the introduction of leverage regulation policy and the introduction of the second suite down payment ratio in the real estate market, and the bank's risk bearing behavior has been well constrained. The first chapters of the article demonstrate the effect of leverage management, and also show that China should further strengthen the leverage management of the credit supply side and the demand side in order to better prevent the generation and dissemination of systemic risk. At the end of the eighth chapter, we also discuss China's leverage management on the basis of the actual situation in China on the basis of chapter 6,7. Finally, in the ninth chapter, we summarize the whole contents of this thesis.
【学位授予单位】：中国人民大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832
，
本文编号：2157766
[Abstract]:The financial crisis, which broke out in 2007, has profoundly changed people's understanding of the role of financial factors in the whole economic system, and promoted the financial practice and theorists to rethink and innovate in many fields, such as financial supervision, monetary policy and the mechanism of financial and economic action. In financial supervision, the financial crisis is produced. In this context, the regulatory authorities of various countries have introduced more stringent regulatory measures and started more stringent with the introduction of the Basel Agreement III. Micro prudential supervision, based on the robustness of individual institutions, has been unable to meet the requirements of risk management under the new situation. Macro prudential supervision concept of integrating the whole financial system into the scope of supervision with a holistic perspective has been rising and slowly beginning to go to the standard. Micro prudential supervision needs macro Prudential supervision. The guidance of the management, macro prudential supervision needs the support of micro prudential supervision. The two types of supervision need more collocation and better integration has become the consensus of the current regulatory concept, and how to combine micro prudential supervision and macro prudential supervision better to prevent and control the outbreak and infection of system risk is also the present person. One of the most important economic topics of concern is that in monetary policy, the old framework is facing more and more challenges, the transition and upgrading of the monetary policy framework are imminent. The final target of price stability before the crisis is being questioned more and more, and the currency policy should also give moderate attention to the problem of financial stability. It is a new consensus. Further, if monetary policy should pay attention to financial stability, how should monetary policy be better integrated with the framework of macro prudential supervision? Can an interest rate based single tool control system be able to perform the function of monetary policy better in the new environment and whether new policy tools can be opened? Can the existing policy tools play a better role? Does the transmission mechanism have undergone some or small or small changes on the basis of understanding? And so on, this series of major theoretical issues need to be further studied. Now, based on the macro Prudential framework, there are many studies on the panoramic analysis of its supervision concept, the ultimate goal, the constituent elements, the composition of the tools and the implementation of the framework, but the research on the role of the role, the transmission mechanism and the framework of the implementation of a certain kind of policy tools around the macro Prudential goal. In fact, in the context of the current macro prudential regulatory concept and implementation framework, this kind of work is often more realistic and significant, because the essence of the macro Prudential policy is in fact a set of policies, which are more specific in the process of implementation. The sub policy framework is composed of different sub policies, and the different sub policies often have great differences. Therefore, it is easier to discuss its policy construction and implementation in general. In this regard, this paper tries to choose a policy tool with a long history of leverage ratio, through a thorough excavation of the decision mechanism of leverage ratio, the related influence of leverage ratio management, the index selection of leverage rate management, risk assessment, policy calibration, the relationship with other policies and mechanism design. Building a reasonable and feasible management framework centered around the policy tool of leverage ratio. Leverage index as a policy tool across monetary policy, micro prudential supervision and macro prudential supervision, I believe it will have great implications for the implementation of various policies. The newly introduced leverage ratio of Searl Protocol III requires a critical period of implementation in the global scope. It is believed that the discussion of leverage management framework in this paper will also have great reference value for the related aspects of leverage rate regulation in Basel agreement. In order to complete the construction of the bar rate management framework, this paper is divided into 9 chapters. First, in the first chapter, we discuss the background and research purpose of this paper, and reveal the significance of the research, the content and the main innovation and deficiency in this paper. Then in the second chapter, we define the meaning of leverage ratio and leverage ratio management framework in this paper, and then circumference. In the third chapter, we reviewed and combed the evolution of the total leverage ratio from a long-term perspective, and then respectively aimed at the residents' department. A structural analysis of the changes in leverage ratio in the non financial sector, the financial sector and the government sector. After that, we also discussed the global change of leverage after the subprime crisis. In addition, at the end of this chapter, we also focused on the relationship between the cycle of leverage and the evolution of the economic cycle, the phase of the deleveraging process. The effects of leverage rate changes on the macroeconomic variables such as output, price level and investment are analyzed with a descriptive approach, and the role of leverage ratio in the economic cycle is revealed qualitatively. The qualitative aspects of the cycle evolution of leverage ratio and its economic impact are reviewed in the qualitative aspect, Fourth In chapter, we begin to discuss the core problem of the endogenous decision mechanism of leverage ratio in quantitative terms. For this reason, we first discuss the equilibrium determination process of leverage ratio in an abstract collateral asset market, and then explain the background of the leverage cycle theory, and build a framework of leverage cycle analysis on this basis for analysis. At the end of this chapter, we also take the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as an example to illustrate the application process of the leverage rate cycle mechanism, and consider some problems related to the cycle management of leverage ratio. After the fourth chapter, it is finally completed. We also discuss the possible influence of leverage ratio management in the fifth chapter from the two angles of evolution and theoretical deduction. From the experience of leverage rate implementation, although many difficult problems and uncertainties are faced by countries in the process of implementation, the leverage ratio management is generally speaking. In order to discuss the effect of leverage management in theory, we analyze the effect of the credit supply side and the credit demand side in two angles. At the supply side, we build a risk weighted capital adequacy ratio and the horizontal bar based on the model of Kiema and Jokivuolle (2014). The theoretical model of the double capital requirement of the rod rate is to discuss the effect of leverage rate regulation on asset prices and risk conditions under a fully competitive banking market structure. Through analysis we find that the introduction of leverage regulation can promote the whole banking industry to develop in the direction of risk specialization, if the level of leverage ratio is regulated. The introduction of a more reasonable level of leverage regulation can indeed inhibit the rise in asset prices and also reduce the risk of the entire banking sector, that is, the "price effect" and "risk effects" in leverage management policies, which theoretically shows that we can effectively prevent leverage by controlling leverage. But if the level of leverage is too low or too high to have an adverse impact on the economy, it also requires that we have to carefully set the level of leverage to maximize the balance of revenue and costs. A simple cross term optimization model containing financing constraints is taken as an example of the loan value ratio (LTV) upper limit management as an example to explore the theoretical effect of leveraging management at the credit demand side. In addition to the direct effect, it also has a positive impact on the demand for collateral, that is, the "credit demand effect". In addition, in this part, we also discuss the influence of the credit demand end leverage management in the qualitative aspect, and point out that the qualitative management of the leverage ratio can be used by the "scarcity effect" and "structural effect" to the collateral. On the basis of these discussions, we formally started the construction of the leverage ratio management framework in the sixth and seventh chapters. Therefore, in the sixth chapter, we first clearly defined the policy implications and the components of leverage ratio management, and discussed the problem of the selection and calculation of the bar rate index in detail. In the last two sections of this chapter, we also discuss the selection and setting and adjustment of leverage management tools in detail so as to provide guidance for the full use of leverage management tools. On the basis of the completion of these work, we are seventh This chapter begins with the construction and implementation of leverage ratio management framework to the relationship between leverage policy and other policies. Based on the cross characteristics of leverage ratio tools, we first focus on the relationship between the three policies of leverage ratio policy and risk weighted capital adequacy ratio, monetary policy and fiscal policy. After this, we also demonstrate the mechanism design of leverage ratio policy. In the last part of this chapter, we finally put forward the policy framework of leverage ratio management, thus completing the main purpose of the framework of leverage ratio management in this paper. After the completion of these main tasks, we are finally in the eighth chapter. This paper discusses the application of leverage ratio management framework in China. Along the sixth and seventh chapters, the leverage ratio management framework is constructed. In this chapter, we analyze the level of leverage ratio in various sectors of China and evaluate the current systemic risk situation in China from the perspective of leverage ratio and review the evolution of China's banking lever rate regulation. The process and implementation situation, and try to use the leverage cycle mechanism to explain the recent cycle of A shares and the real estate market cycle. In addition, we also have an empirical test on the policy effect of leverage management in China's banking industry and the real estate market. China's credit growth has been well controlled since the introduction of leverage regulation policy and the introduction of the second suite down payment ratio in the real estate market, and the bank's risk bearing behavior has been well constrained. The first chapters of the article demonstrate the effect of leverage management, and also show that China should further strengthen the leverage management of the credit supply side and the demand side in order to better prevent the generation and dissemination of systemic risk. At the end of the eighth chapter, we also discuss China's leverage management on the basis of the actual situation in China on the basis of chapter 6,7. Finally, in the ninth chapter, we summarize the whole contents of this thesis.
【学位授予单位】：中国人民大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832
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本文编号：2157766
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