人民币升值对深圳出口的影响及对策研究
发布时间：2018-08-06 16:58
【摘要】：自2005年汇改开始,人民币开启了持续升值的步伐。截至2012年底,人民币对美元的名义汇率达到了6.3125,累计升值29.77%。贸易出口将面临怎样的影响备受瞩目。深圳作为中国的一个重要经济城市,其经济外向程度高,故人民币升值可能造成的影响是深圳必须面对的课题。深入分析人民币升值对深圳外贸出口行业的影响,找到应对策略,使深圳政府及出口企业能从容应对其升值,更好地促进本市出口行业的发展。本文着重研究深圳的出口是否受人民币升值的影响,并分析其影响程度以及对不同行业影响的差异,从而得出结论。本文先通过纵向和横向比较研究人民币升值对深圳出口影响的大小,横向分别挑选了广东省的广州、阳江和汕头,长三角的杭州和苏州,环渤海的天津和青岛为比较对象,发现跟部分省内沿海城市相比人民币升值对深圳出口的负面影响比较大,但跟长三角、环渤海的沿海城市相比,负面影响相对较小。紧接着,以便携式电脑、手持或车载式无线电话机、家具及其零件、服装及衣着附件、贵金属或包贵金属的首饰5个不同行业为例,分析人民币升值对不同行业影响的异同。在理论和和定性分析的基础上,采用引力模型对2000-2012年深圳与11个国家的出口贸易进行了实证分析,通过对面板数据进行多元回归分析发现：第一,人民币升值的确会给深圳出口造成不利的影响；第二,双方的GDP和人均GDP之差的绝对值对深圳出口产生正面影响,绝对距离和人民币对美元实际汇率的升值对深圳出口起负面作用。最后,本文对理论、定性、实证分析的结果进行了总结,并提出了强化政策引导支持、加快产业结构调整、合理利用衍生金融工具等多条政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has opened the pace of sustained appreciation. By the end of 2012, the yuan's nominal exchange rate against the dollar had reached 6.3125, a cumulative gain of 29.77 yuan. How trade exports will be affected has attracted much attention. As an important economic city in China, Shenzhen has a high degree of economic extroversion, so the possible impact of RMB appreciation is a subject that Shenzhen must face. This paper analyzes deeply the influence of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's foreign trade export industry, and finds out the countermeasures to enable Shenzhen government and export enterprises to cope with its appreciation calmly, and to promote the development of export industry in this city better. This paper mainly studies whether Shenzhen's exports are affected by RMB appreciation, and analyzes the influence degree and the difference on different industries, so as to draw a conclusion. This paper first studies the impact of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's export through longitudinal and horizontal comparison, and selects Guangzhou, Yangjiang and Shantou in Guangdong Province, Hangzhou and Suzhou in the Yangtze River Delta, Tianjin and Qingdao around the Bohai Sea as comparative objects. It is found that the negative impact of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's exports is greater than that of coastal cities in some provinces, but the negative impact is relatively small compared with the coastal cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Sea. Then, taking five different industries as examples, such as portable computer, hand-held or vehicle-borne wireless telephone, furniture and its parts, clothing and clothing accessories, precious metal or precious metal jewelry, this paper analyzes the similarities and differences of the impact of RMB appreciation on different industries. On the basis of theory and qualitative analysis, this paper makes an empirical analysis of Shenzhen's export trade with 11 countries from 2000 to 2012 by using gravity model. The results of multivariate regression analysis of panel data are as follows: first, The appreciation of the RMB will indeed have a negative impact on Shenzhen's exports. Second, the absolute value of the difference between GDP and per capita GDP between the two sides has a positive impact on Shenzhen's exports. The absolute distance and the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar have a negative effect on Shenzhen's exports. Finally, this paper summarizes the results of theoretical, qualitative and empirical analysis, and puts forward a number of policy suggestions, such as strengthening policy guidance support, speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure, and making rational use of derivative financial instruments.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62
本文编号：2168368
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has opened the pace of sustained appreciation. By the end of 2012, the yuan's nominal exchange rate against the dollar had reached 6.3125, a cumulative gain of 29.77 yuan. How trade exports will be affected has attracted much attention. As an important economic city in China, Shenzhen has a high degree of economic extroversion, so the possible impact of RMB appreciation is a subject that Shenzhen must face. This paper analyzes deeply the influence of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's foreign trade export industry, and finds out the countermeasures to enable Shenzhen government and export enterprises to cope with its appreciation calmly, and to promote the development of export industry in this city better. This paper mainly studies whether Shenzhen's exports are affected by RMB appreciation, and analyzes the influence degree and the difference on different industries, so as to draw a conclusion. This paper first studies the impact of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's export through longitudinal and horizontal comparison, and selects Guangzhou, Yangjiang and Shantou in Guangdong Province, Hangzhou and Suzhou in the Yangtze River Delta, Tianjin and Qingdao around the Bohai Sea as comparative objects. It is found that the negative impact of RMB appreciation on Shenzhen's exports is greater than that of coastal cities in some provinces, but the negative impact is relatively small compared with the coastal cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Sea. Then, taking five different industries as examples, such as portable computer, hand-held or vehicle-borne wireless telephone, furniture and its parts, clothing and clothing accessories, precious metal or precious metal jewelry, this paper analyzes the similarities and differences of the impact of RMB appreciation on different industries. On the basis of theory and qualitative analysis, this paper makes an empirical analysis of Shenzhen's export trade with 11 countries from 2000 to 2012 by using gravity model. The results of multivariate regression analysis of panel data are as follows: first, The appreciation of the RMB will indeed have a negative impact on Shenzhen's exports. Second, the absolute value of the difference between GDP and per capita GDP between the two sides has a positive impact on Shenzhen's exports. The absolute distance and the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar have a negative effect on Shenzhen's exports. Finally, this paper summarizes the results of theoretical, qualitative and empirical analysis, and puts forward a number of policy suggestions, such as strengthening policy guidance support, speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure, and making rational use of derivative financial instruments.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 牛拥;毛德勇;;人民币升值对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响[J];贵州财经大学学报;2013年06期
，本文编号：2168368
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