宏观流动性管理研究
发布时间：2018-08-10 07:09
【摘要】：2007年,发端于美国的次贷危机迅速演变为席卷全球的金融危机,至今世界经济仍然在发展的泥泞中蹒跚。这次金融危机对于货币经济从理论到实践都产生了巨大的冲击。各国中央银行以及国际金融组织率先在实践中进行了流动性管理的创新,学界也开始对原先主流的“新维克塞尔主义”(新古典综合主义)框架进行修补,同时也开始力图发展新理论框架对流动性管理创新的实践进行总结和指导。本文在金融创新的背景中进一步深入发展了后凯恩斯主义的信用货币内生理论,提出在金融创新背景下,货币和金融不再仅仅是实体经济的面纱,而是与实体经济相连、但同时能够自我运转的半封闭体系,同时由于金融摩擦的存在,金融体系相较实体经济更易产生巨大的波动,也就是说未来发生金融部门波动向实体经济传导的金融危机模式的概率将大大高于早先实体经济波动传导至金融部门的经济危机模式。对于中央银行而言,未来的任务除了管理实体经济的流动性(价格稳定)外,还必须管理金融部门的流动性(金融稳定)。所以,发展宏观流动性管理框架,同时管理物价稳定和金融稳定将是金融管理体制创新和演化的方向。为向金融管理部门提供宏观流动性管理的思路和框架,本文主要从三个部分六个方面的进行了分析。第一部分对宏观流动性管理的相关研究文献进行综述。第二部分主要是基于货币内生理论对宏观流动性的循环进行了理论分析,为构建金融管理部门宏观流动性管理框架提供基础。第三部分是基于理论分析,构建了金融管理部门宏观流动性的管理框架,从流动性的日常管理和趋势管理、宏观审慎管理、流动性危机管理和国际流动性管理5个方面论述了宏观流动性管理框架和工具的主要内容。第四部分则是总结分析了国外主要中央银行的流动性管理框架和自2007年全球金融危机以来所采取的非常规的流动性管理措施。第五部分分析了中国人民银行改革开放以来流动性管理框架和工具的变化,并对人民银行将来的宏观流动性管理进行了思考。第六部分在前述的宏观流动性理论、管理框架、国内外的历史经验基础上,对加强和改进中国的宏观流动性管理的框架和工具提出了意见和建议。本文的主要创新之处至少有三个方面:第一,理论上,本文摒弃了目前院校派货币经济学研究的主流框架,使用后凯恩斯主义的信用货币内生理论框架分析了货币、信用创造和社会总流动性间的关系,进一步澄清了货币与信用间的关系,得出了金融市场摩擦会导致信用扩张和金融稳定间的替代效应的推论,并进一步提出推论:货币主义提倡的管理基础货币以盯住货币总量(货币存量)和新古典综合主义主张的根据市场流动性需求管理利率这两种现有的流动性管理框架在应对外部冲击时均有缺陷,因此金融管理部门需要一个能管住货币、管住信贷、管住信用的宏观流动性管理框架。第二,规范上,构建了宏观流动性管理的理论框架。宏观流动性管理至少需要三个组成部分,第一个部分是能使用货币政策,通过同业市场的操作管理货币价格-利率(同业市场的价格管理),从而管住货币,并间接调控信用创造;第二个部分则是在宏观审慎管理框架中,选择合适工具管理金融体系的整体信用供给(金融体系的信用总量管理);第三个部分则是构建流动性救助通道,能够避免单个金融机构流动性危机扩散和传染为系统流动性危机。第三,应用上,系统总结了境外主要中央银行的流动性管理体制,梳理了中国流动性管理体制及其主要工具的演变,提出了中国未来宏观流动性框架要能够管住短期货币价格,能够管住信贷,能够管住金融体系的信用总量,并进一步分析了其转型路径以及为实现顺利转型所需要进行的制度准备等问题,为人民银行管理框架的转变提供了系统的解决方案。本篇论文主要的理论意义在于三个方面:第一,本文剖析了货币主义和新古典主义信用理论和货币理论关于流动性管理存在的缺陷,明确提出当前的货币政策管理框架将会引致金融体系的不稳定,并加大经济体系波动幅度。第二,本文发展了内生货币理论框架,将包括银行在内的金融机构的活动与实体经济的波动相联系起来,提出金融管理部门需要放宽视野,不仅仅只对利率或者货币总量进行管理,而应该在科学合理的信用总量范围内通过管理利率来管理流动性。第三,本文提出了金融管理部门进行宏观流动性管理的主要范围、内容和工具。本篇论文具有重要的现实意义。第一,为未来的宏观金融管理提供了一个指导性框架。对如何进行同业市场的价格管理以及金融市场的总量管理提供了可操作的实践工具箱。第二,最重要的现实意义是为中国金融管理体制当前的改革提供了指导性建议。中国金融管理框架目前面临着两个主要任务,一是改革,即从数量型管理向价格型管理转变,二是发展,即在保证价格稳定和金融稳定的基础上满足中国未来金融创新和发展的需要。本文提供的宏观流动性管理框架对中国金融体制深化改革和发展这两个任务提供了可行路径。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the subprime crisis, which originated in the United States, quickly evolved into a global financial crisis. The world economy still lurched in the muddy development of the world. The financial crisis had a huge impact on the monetary economy from theory to practice. The central banks and international financial organizations took the lead in the practice of liquidity management. The academic circles also began to repair the original mainstream "new Vicker Searl doctrine" (neo classical comprehensive) framework, and also began to develop new theoretical framework to summarize and guide the practice of liquidity management innovation. In the background of financial innovation, this paper develops the post Keynes's credit currency in depth. In the theory of endogenous, it is proposed that under the background of financial innovation, money and finance are not only the veil of the real economy, but the semi closed system that is connected to the real economy, but at the same time it can operate itself. At the same time, because of the existence of financial friction, the financial system is more likely to produce huge fluctuations than the real economy, that is to say, the financial sector will occur in the future. The probability of the financial crisis mode carried by the volatility to the real economy will be much higher than the economic crisis mode that the earlier real economic fluctuations transmit to the financial sector. For the central bank, the future task must manage the liquidity of the financial sector (financial stability) in addition to the liquidity of the real economy (stable price). The management framework of macro liquidity and the management of price stability and financial stability will be the direction of innovation and evolution of the financial management system. In order to provide macro liquidity management to the financial management department, this paper mainly analyzes the three parts and six aspects. Part one is related to the research of macro liquidity management. The second part is mainly based on the theoretical analysis of the circulation of macro Liquidity Based on the theory of money endogenous, which provides the basis for the construction of the macro liquidity management framework of the financial management department. The third part is based on the theoretical analysis, and constructs the management framework for the macro liquidity of the financial management department, from the daily management of the liquidity. The main contents of the macro liquidity management framework and tools are discussed in 5 aspects: trend management, macro Prudential Management, liquidity crisis management and international liquidity management. The fourth part is a summary and analysis of the liquidity management framework of the major central banks in foreign countries and the unconventional flows since the global financial crisis in 2007. The fifth part analyses the changes in the framework and tools of the liquidity management since the reform and opening up of the people's Bank of China, and thinks about the future macro liquidity management of the people's Bank. The sixth part, on the basis of the macro liquidity theory, the management framework and the historical experience at home and abroad, is based on strengthening and improving China. There are at least three main innovations in the framework and tools of macro liquidity management. The main innovations of this paper are at least three aspects: first, in theory, this paper discarded the mainstream framework of the current research on monetary economics in Colleges and universities, and analyzed the currency, credit creation and social general flow by using the post Keynes's framework of internal physiological theory of credit money. The relationship between mobility, further clarifies the relationship between money and credit, and draws a conclusion that the financial market friction will lead to the substitution effect between credit expansion and financial stability, and further advances the inference that the base currency advocated by monetarism is based on the view of the amount of money (the stock of the goods) and the neo classical integrated doctrine. Field liquidity demand management interest rates, the two existing liquidity management frameworks, have defects in dealing with external shocks. Therefore, the financial management departments need a macro liquidity management framework that can manage money, manage credit and manage credit. Second, the theoretical framework of macro liquidity management is constructed in the standard. Macro liquidity management is constructed. At least three components are needed. The first part is the ability to use monetary policy to manage monetary price - interest rate (price management in the same market) through operation of the same market, so as to manage money and indirectly regulate credit creation; the second part is to choose the right tool to manage the whole financial system in the macro Prudential framework. The credit supply (the total credit management of the financial system); the third part is the construction of the liquidity rescue channel, which can avoid the liquidity crisis of individual financial institutions and the systemic liquidity crisis. Third. On the application, the system summarizes the liquidity management system of the main central banks abroad, and combs the Chinese liquidity management system. As well as the evolution of its main tools, it is proposed that China's future macro liquidity framework should be able to manage the short-term monetary price, manage credit, manage the total credit amount of the financial system, and further analyze the transformation path and the preparation of the system for the smooth transition, and the transfer of the management framework for the people's Bank. The main theoretical significance of this paper lies in three aspects: first, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the liquidity management of monetarism and neoclassical credit theory and monetary theory, and clearly suggests that the current monetary policy framework will lead to the instability of the financial system and increase the economy. The fluctuation range of the system is second. This paper develops the framework of the endogenous monetary theory, linking the activities of the financial institutions including the banks and the fluctuation of the real economy. It is proposed that the financial management department need to relax the field of vision, not only to manage the interest rate or the total amount of money, but should be within the scientific and reasonable scope of the total credit. Management interest rate to manage liquidity. Third, this paper puts forward the main scope, contents and tools of the financial management department for macro liquidity management. This paper has important practical significance. First, it provides a guiding framework for the future macro financial management. The total amount management of the field provides a practical practical toolbox. Second, the most important practical significance is to provide guidance for the current reform of the Chinese financial management system. China's financial management framework is currently facing two main tasks, one is the transformation from the quantitative management to the price type management, and the two is the development, that is, the guarantee is to be guaranteed. On the basis of price stability and financial stability to meet the needs of China's future financial innovation and development, the macro liquidity management framework provided in this paper provides a feasible path for the deepening of the reform and development of the two tasks of China's financial system.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.2
，
本文编号：2175326
[Abstract]:In 2007, the subprime crisis, which originated in the United States, quickly evolved into a global financial crisis. The world economy still lurched in the muddy development of the world. The financial crisis had a huge impact on the monetary economy from theory to practice. The central banks and international financial organizations took the lead in the practice of liquidity management. The academic circles also began to repair the original mainstream "new Vicker Searl doctrine" (neo classical comprehensive) framework, and also began to develop new theoretical framework to summarize and guide the practice of liquidity management innovation. In the background of financial innovation, this paper develops the post Keynes's credit currency in depth. In the theory of endogenous, it is proposed that under the background of financial innovation, money and finance are not only the veil of the real economy, but the semi closed system that is connected to the real economy, but at the same time it can operate itself. At the same time, because of the existence of financial friction, the financial system is more likely to produce huge fluctuations than the real economy, that is to say, the financial sector will occur in the future. The probability of the financial crisis mode carried by the volatility to the real economy will be much higher than the economic crisis mode that the earlier real economic fluctuations transmit to the financial sector. For the central bank, the future task must manage the liquidity of the financial sector (financial stability) in addition to the liquidity of the real economy (stable price). The management framework of macro liquidity and the management of price stability and financial stability will be the direction of innovation and evolution of the financial management system. In order to provide macro liquidity management to the financial management department, this paper mainly analyzes the three parts and six aspects. Part one is related to the research of macro liquidity management. The second part is mainly based on the theoretical analysis of the circulation of macro Liquidity Based on the theory of money endogenous, which provides the basis for the construction of the macro liquidity management framework of the financial management department. The third part is based on the theoretical analysis, and constructs the management framework for the macro liquidity of the financial management department, from the daily management of the liquidity. The main contents of the macro liquidity management framework and tools are discussed in 5 aspects: trend management, macro Prudential Management, liquidity crisis management and international liquidity management. The fourth part is a summary and analysis of the liquidity management framework of the major central banks in foreign countries and the unconventional flows since the global financial crisis in 2007. The fifth part analyses the changes in the framework and tools of the liquidity management since the reform and opening up of the people's Bank of China, and thinks about the future macro liquidity management of the people's Bank. The sixth part, on the basis of the macro liquidity theory, the management framework and the historical experience at home and abroad, is based on strengthening and improving China. There are at least three main innovations in the framework and tools of macro liquidity management. The main innovations of this paper are at least three aspects: first, in theory, this paper discarded the mainstream framework of the current research on monetary economics in Colleges and universities, and analyzed the currency, credit creation and social general flow by using the post Keynes's framework of internal physiological theory of credit money. The relationship between mobility, further clarifies the relationship between money and credit, and draws a conclusion that the financial market friction will lead to the substitution effect between credit expansion and financial stability, and further advances the inference that the base currency advocated by monetarism is based on the view of the amount of money (the stock of the goods) and the neo classical integrated doctrine. Field liquidity demand management interest rates, the two existing liquidity management frameworks, have defects in dealing with external shocks. Therefore, the financial management departments need a macro liquidity management framework that can manage money, manage credit and manage credit. Second, the theoretical framework of macro liquidity management is constructed in the standard. Macro liquidity management is constructed. At least three components are needed. The first part is the ability to use monetary policy to manage monetary price - interest rate (price management in the same market) through operation of the same market, so as to manage money and indirectly regulate credit creation; the second part is to choose the right tool to manage the whole financial system in the macro Prudential framework. The credit supply (the total credit management of the financial system); the third part is the construction of the liquidity rescue channel, which can avoid the liquidity crisis of individual financial institutions and the systemic liquidity crisis. Third. On the application, the system summarizes the liquidity management system of the main central banks abroad, and combs the Chinese liquidity management system. As well as the evolution of its main tools, it is proposed that China's future macro liquidity framework should be able to manage the short-term monetary price, manage credit, manage the total credit amount of the financial system, and further analyze the transformation path and the preparation of the system for the smooth transition, and the transfer of the management framework for the people's Bank. The main theoretical significance of this paper lies in three aspects: first, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the liquidity management of monetarism and neoclassical credit theory and monetary theory, and clearly suggests that the current monetary policy framework will lead to the instability of the financial system and increase the economy. The fluctuation range of the system is second. This paper develops the framework of the endogenous monetary theory, linking the activities of the financial institutions including the banks and the fluctuation of the real economy. It is proposed that the financial management department need to relax the field of vision, not only to manage the interest rate or the total amount of money, but should be within the scientific and reasonable scope of the total credit. Management interest rate to manage liquidity. Third, this paper puts forward the main scope, contents and tools of the financial management department for macro liquidity management. This paper has important practical significance. First, it provides a guiding framework for the future macro financial management. The total amount management of the field provides a practical practical toolbox. Second, the most important practical significance is to provide guidance for the current reform of the Chinese financial management system. China's financial management framework is currently facing two main tasks, one is the transformation from the quantitative management to the price type management, and the two is the development, that is, the guarantee is to be guaranteed. On the basis of price stability and financial stability to meet the needs of China's future financial innovation and development, the macro liquidity management framework provided in this paper provides a feasible path for the deepening of the reform and development of the two tasks of China's financial system.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.2
，
本文编号：2175326
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