国际黄金价格的影响因素及走势分析
发布时间：2018-08-17 09:24
【摘要】：布雷顿森林体系瓦解，黄金逐步进入市场化定价阶段。黄金价格不再盯住美元，其价格也开始急剧变化。由于黄金不仅具有普通的商品属性，货币属性也是其一大特点，所以其价格波动机制也不同于普通的商品。因此，黄金的价格也成为国内外诸多学者给予关注和研究的重点。近年来，黄金价格由于受到众多因素的影响，经历了不同程度的大涨和大跌。在新的经济背景下，对黄金价格影响因素的研究又成为热点问题。而且随着黄金投资日渐进入人们投资生活，对黄金价格未来走势的判断把握也显得尤为重要。只有紧紧抓住黄金价格的跳动脉搏才能更好地规避价格波动的风险，并尽可能的获得更多的收益。 本文首先从理论上重点研究了国际黄金价格的众多影响因素，然后对近30年的黄金价格进行实证研究。在黄金价格大起大落的背景下，本文将近30年的黄金价格分成两个阶段进行讨论，即黄金价格上涨阶段和黄金价格下降阶段。经过对黄金价格高涨阶段和降落阶段的黄金价格影响要素的实证研究，挖掘其在不同的价格趋势下影响黄金价格的不同因素，从而为众多黄金市场参与者在大趋势的背景下预测未来黄金价格走势提供了依据。在文章的最后本文结合当今现实世界经济环境，，在前文实证检验结论的基础上简要预测黄金价格的未来走势，并为黄金投资者、黄金生产企业以及关于国家黄金储备方面提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Bretton Woods system collapsed, gold gradually entered the stage of market pricing. Gold is no longer pegged to the dollar, and its price is beginning to change sharply. Because gold not only has the common commodity attribute, but also the currency attribute is one of its characteristics, so its price fluctuation mechanism is also different from the ordinary commodity. Therefore, the price of gold has become the focus of many scholars at home and abroad. In recent years, gold prices have experienced varying degrees of rise and fall due to the influence of many factors. Under the new economic background, the research on the factors affecting gold price has become a hot issue. As gold investment enters people's life day by day, it is very important to judge the future trend of gold price. Only by grasping the beating pulse of gold price can we better avoid the risk of price fluctuation and get as much profit as possible. In this paper, we focus on the influence factors of the international gold price in theory, and then make an empirical study on the gold price in the past 30 years. Under the background of the fluctuation of gold price, the gold price of nearly 30 years is discussed in two stages: the rising stage of gold price and the declining stage of gold price. Through the empirical research on the factors influencing the gold price in the period of gold price rising and falling, the paper excavates the different factors that influence the gold price under different price trends. Therefore, it provides a basis for many gold market participants to predict the future gold price trend under the background of the general trend. At the end of the article, combining with the real world economic environment, this paper briefly predicts the future trend of gold price on the basis of the previous empirical test conclusion, and is a gold investor. Gold production enterprises and the national gold reserves put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.54
本文编号：2187180
[Abstract]:Bretton Woods system collapsed, gold gradually entered the stage of market pricing. Gold is no longer pegged to the dollar, and its price is beginning to change sharply. Because gold not only has the common commodity attribute, but also the currency attribute is one of its characteristics, so its price fluctuation mechanism is also different from the ordinary commodity. Therefore, the price of gold has become the focus of many scholars at home and abroad. In recent years, gold prices have experienced varying degrees of rise and fall due to the influence of many factors. Under the new economic background, the research on the factors affecting gold price has become a hot issue. As gold investment enters people's life day by day, it is very important to judge the future trend of gold price. Only by grasping the beating pulse of gold price can we better avoid the risk of price fluctuation and get as much profit as possible. In this paper, we focus on the influence factors of the international gold price in theory, and then make an empirical study on the gold price in the past 30 years. Under the background of the fluctuation of gold price, the gold price of nearly 30 years is discussed in two stages: the rising stage of gold price and the declining stage of gold price. Through the empirical research on the factors influencing the gold price in the period of gold price rising and falling, the paper excavates the different factors that influence the gold price under different price trends. Therefore, it provides a basis for many gold market participants to predict the future gold price trend under the background of the general trend. At the end of the article, combining with the real world economic environment, this paper briefly predicts the future trend of gold price on the basis of the previous empirical test conclusion, and is a gold investor. Gold production enterprises and the national gold reserves put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.54
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