目的国制度对中国出口和对外投资区位选择影响研究
发布时间：2018-08-19 15:16
【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济实现了前所未有、世界罕见的持续快速增长,2012年经济总量已连续三年位居世界第二。自我国提出“走出去”发展战略以来,商品和资本相继走向国际市场,2012年我国成为世界第一货物出口贸易大国,世界第二进口贸易大国,世界第三资本输出国,中国已成为名副其实的贸易大国和投资大国。从宏观统计数据来看,我国出口贸易主要分布在制度质量较高的国家或地区,向制度质量较差国家或地区的出口较少。从对外投资地理结构来看,我国企业主要投资于和我国制度距离较小的国家或地区,对制度质量较高国家或地区的投资处于逐步发展趋势。有效的制度安排可以降低交易成本,提升产品竞争力,制度因素是国家富裕的最根本因素,远比资源、人口和资本等因素重要得多,制度是影响我国出口贸易和对外直接投资区位选择的关键因素,我国到商品输出和资本输出不仅偏好于经济发展水平比较高的国家或地区,而且偏好于制度质量比较高的国家或地区。制度安排对一国对外贸易和对外投资有重大影响,因此研究目的国制度对我国出口贸易和对外直接投资区位选择的影响具有非常重要的理论意义和现实意义。 本文在分析中国出口贸易和对外投资历史和现状的基础上,把制度分为正式制度和非正式制度两大类,阐释制度对出口贸易和对外投资的影响机理,通过设定相关指标构建制度的评价指标体系,建立制度安排和中国出口贸易与对外投资之间关系的数理模型,利用中国出口贸易和对外投资的相关统计数据从制度质量和制度距离等方面进行计量分析,分别研究制度对中国出口贸易和对外投资区位分布的影响,并对制度安排对中国出口贸易和对外投资模式选择的综合影响进行研究,是对国际贸易学和制度经济学交叉学科理论的补充和发展。本文的创新点主要表现在： 第一,从贸易引力模型的微观基础出发,利用效用函数把制度变量嵌入扩展贸易引力模型进行推导,并在此基础上构建计量模型,使用代表性国家或地区的宏观统计数据,分别研究整体制度质量、单项制度质量以及单项制度质量某一指标对中国出口贸易地理结构的影响,探求中国出口贸易地理分布的规律。本文对制度的分类更为精细,对制度对我国出口贸易影响的研究更为全面和深入。 第二,通过把制度变量嵌入扩展投资引力模型进行推导,并在此基础上构建计量模型,利用代表性国家或地区的宏观统计数据,分别实证研究整体制度质量、单项制度质量以及单项制度质量某一指标对中国对外直接投资区位选择的影响,探求中国对外直接投资区位分布的内在规律,本文对制度对我国对外直接投资区位选择影响的研究更为全面和深入。 第三,从交易成本的视角探讨中国出口贸易和对外直接投资区位选择关系,中国出口贸易和对外投资分布在全球近两百个国家或地区,但是这种分布相对集中而且具有一定的内在规律,现有文献主要关注经济因素的影响,本文试图分析制度因素对跨国经营者进行出口和投资模式选择的影响。 第四,借鉴关税同盟理论构建语言对我国出口贸易和对外投资影响的理论模型,使用语言的人力投入和资本投入作为语言成本的代理变量,实证研究语言交易成本对出口贸易和对外投资区位选择的影响,把语言经济学和国际贸易学结合起来研究,是对现有国际贸易理论的补充和发展。 通过理论分析和实证检验本文的主要结论为： 第一,我国出口贸易偏好于制度质量较高的国家或地区 进口国的制度质量越高意味着政府工作效率越高、国家对市场的监管越严,越能为我国出口贸易提供政治保证,对我国商品的引力越大。进口国高质量的经济制度意味着贸易政策更为自由,优胜劣汰的市场竞争环境更为公平,交易合约的签订程序简化,贸易壁垒相对较低,有利于降低交易成本提高产品竞争力,高质量的制度是吸引我国产品的重要因素。良好的法制运行环境能对交易中的违约行为进行有效惩处,保障合约的正常履行,保护进出口商的利益。因此我国的出口贸易不仅要考虑进口国的经济发展水平还要考虑进口国的制度质量。高质量的国家制度能为进出口商提供良好的制度环境,降低贸易中可能出现的风险和不确定性,有利于交易的顺利实现。在出口贸易中要注重进口国的制度质量,同时还应注意我国制度质量的世界排名还比较靠后,与经济较为发达的国家或地区相比还有一定差距,我国制度比较优势的发挥还有很大潜力,今后要进一步深化制度改革,健全和完善相关领域的法律法规,提升制度质量,促进制度比较优势向竞争优势的转化,发挥制度对我国国民经济的促进作用。 第二,我国对外直接投资偏好于制度质量较高的国家或地区 相对于出口贸易跨国公司的海外投资受东道国制度环境的影响更大,不仅销售环节在东道国而且生产环节也在东道国,跨国公司生产经营的制度合法性是成功经营的重要决定因素。较高制度质量的东道国能为资本的自由流动提供保障,跨国公司的本土化经营从原材料的采购、员工的雇佣、生产加工以及市场销售都要受东道国制度环境的影响,如果东道国能为投资者提供生产经营的制度支持,将有利于降低交易成本,符合投资者利润最大化的经营策略。相反,制度质量较差的东道国不仅不能为投资者提供良好的制度支持,政治风险的存在甚至使投资者面临资本灭失的风险。我国经过三十多年的改革开放,社会主义市场经济体制逐步健全和完善,但制度完善度还相对较低,是助推我国资本输出的重要原因。目前我国资本输出还处于较低层次的发展阶段,目标区域还不是很明确,存在-定的盲目性,国内的推力作用要大于国外的引力作用。 第三,企业在对高制度质量国家或地区进行跨国经营决策时,倾向于向制度距离较大的高制度质量国家或地区出口,向制度距离较小的高制度质量国家或地区投资 制度质量较高的国家或地区对我国出口贸易和对外直接投资都有较大的引力,目标国的制度质量较高意味着各项制度相对完善,可以为企业的跨国经营提供制度保障,降低交易成本。但并不是目标国的制度质量越高就一定有利于跨国经营的利润最大化,目标国的制度质量较高同时可能也意味着和我国的制度差异较大,较大的制度差异将使经营者面对更为陌生的制度环境,跨国交易与国内交易有所不同,经营者只有熟悉并适应这种环境才可能在目标国成功经营。企业在开展跨国业务时首先确定选择高制度质量的区域,其次对出口经营模式和投资经营模式进行选择,这种决策与制度距离存在密切关系,当制度距离较大时意味着经营者所付出的交易成本可能较大,这种情况下出口贸易模式更有利于企业利润最大化目标,当制度距离较小时意味着经营者所付出的交易成本可能较小,这种情况下跨国投资模式可能是经营者的最优决策。投资模式受东道国制度因素的影响较大,出口模式受进口国制度环境的约束相对较小,理性企业在对高制度质量国家或地区进行跨国经营决策时,倾向于向制度距离较大的高制度质量国家或地区出口,向制度距离较小的高制度质量国家或地区投资,这样有利于利润最大化目标的实现。 第四,非正式制度语言对出口贸易和对外投资有重要影响 改革开放特别是加入WTO以来我国商品输出和资本输出快速增长,货物出口贸易额位居世界首位,对外投资流量跃居世界第三,庞大的出口贸易额和对外投资量为我国经济增长做出很大贡献。在开展跨国业务时由于语言差异会产生沟通障碍,要解决这种沟通障碍一国必须学习另一国语言,而语言的学习需要成本。目前汉语还不是国际语言,我国与世界主要国家进行交易时往往要使用英语或其它国家语言,为此承担了很大的语言学习成本。本文通过研究语言对出口贸易和对外直接投资的影响,认为语言是一种交易成本。在开放经济条件下,小国是语言成本的主要承担者。随着本国学习国际通用语人数的增多,对外经贸关系的发展也会更快,但是学习通用语的人数比例有一个限额,如果超过该限额反而会阻碍国际贸易的发展。语言学习资本投入的提高也能促进对外经贸关系的发展,但目前我国语言学习的经费投入还存在某种程度的不合理现象。语言的国际推广有利于降低交易成本,如果世界上有了统一的国际语言,国际经贸往来就不再需要学习多种语言,语言学习的成本将大大降低,各国之间的沟通交流也会更加便利,有利于跨国交易和全球经济的发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved unprecedented sustained and rapid growth. The total economic output in 2012 has ranked second in the world for three consecutive years. China is a big importer and exporter of the world's third capital. China has become a real trading and investment country. According to macro-statistics, China's export trade mainly distributes in countries or regions with high institutional quality, and exports less to countries or regions with poor institutional quality. Effective institutional arrangements can reduce transaction costs and enhance product competitiveness. Institutional factors are the most fundamental factors for national prosperity, far more important than resources, population and capital. Institutions are the key factors affecting the location choice of China's export trade and foreign direct investment. China's export of commodities and capital not only prefers countries or regions with high economic development level, but also prefers countries or regions with high institutional quality. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of destination country system on China's export trade and FDI location choice.
Based on the analysis of the history and current situation of China's export trade and foreign investment, this paper divides the system into formal and informal systems, explains the mechanism of the impact of the system on export trade and foreign investment, establishes the evaluation index system of the system, establishes the institutional arrangements and China's export trade and foreign investment by setting relevant indicators. Based on the mathematical model of the relationship between investment and China's export trade, this paper makes quantitative analysis from the aspects of institutional quality and institutional distance by using the relevant statistical data of China's export trade and foreign investment, respectively studies the effects of institutional arrangements on the location distribution of China's export trade and foreign investment, and synthesizes the institutional arrangements on the selection of China's export trade and foreign investment patterns. The study of synergistic effects is a supplement and development to the interdisciplinary theories of international trade and institutional economics.
Firstly, based on the microscopic foundation of the trade gravity model, this paper deduces the system variable embedded in the extended trade gravity model by utilizing the utility function, and then constructs the econometric model to study the overall system quality, the single system quality and the single system quality by using the macroscopic statistical data of representative countries or regions. In this paper, the classification of the system is more detailed, and the research on the impact of the system on China's export trade is more comprehensive and in-depth.
Secondly, by embedding institutional variables into the extended investment gravity model, this paper constructs an econometric model and makes use of macro-statistical data of representative countries or regions to empirically study the impact of overall institutional quality, individual institutional quality and a single institutional quality on the location choice of China's FDI. In order to explore the inherent law of the location distribution of China's FDI, this paper makes a more comprehensive and in-depth study on the impact of the system on the location choice of China's FDI.
Thirdly, from the perspective of transaction cost, this paper explores the location choice relationship between China's export trade and foreign direct investment. China's export trade and foreign investment are distributed in nearly 200 countries or regions in the world, but this distribution is relatively concentrated and has certain internal laws. The existing literature mainly focuses on the impact of economic factors. This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between China's export trade and foreign direct investment. The influence of institutional factors on the choice of export and investment mode of transnational business operators.
Fourthly, a theoretical model of the impact of language on China's export trade and foreign investment is constructed based on the theory of tariff union. Manpower and capital input of language are used as proxy variables of language cost. The influence of language transaction cost on the location choice of export trade and foreign investment is empirically studied, and linguistic economics and international trade are combined. Together, the study is complementary to the existing international trade theory.
Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, the main conclusions of this paper are:
First, China's export trade favours countries or regions with high system quality.
The higher the quality of the importing country's system, the higher the efficiency of the government's work, the stricter the supervision of the country's market, the greater the political guarantee for China's export trade, and the greater the attraction of China's goods. Good legal environment can effectively punish the breach of contract, guarantee the normal performance of the contract and protect the interests of importers and exporters. Export trade should take into account not only the economic development level of the importing country but also the institutional quality of the importing country. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the fact that the world ranking of China's system quality is still relatively backward, there is still a certain gap compared with the more developed countries or regions, China's comparative advantage of the system still has great potential to play, in the future we should further deepen the reform of the system, improve and perfect the relevant laws and regulations, improve the quality of the system, and promote the system ratio. The transformation from comparative advantage to competitive advantage can bring into play the role of the system in promoting our national economy.
Second, China's foreign direct investment is preferred to countries or regions with high system quality.
The overseas investment of multinational corporations in export trade is more affected by the institutional environment of the host country than that of the multinational corporations in export trade. The legality of the production and operation system of multinational corporations is an important determinant of successful operation. The host country with higher institutional quality can guarantee the free flow of capital. If the host country can provide institutional support for the production and operation of the investors, it will be beneficial to reduce transaction costs and conform to the operating strategy of maximizing the profits of the investors. The poor host country not only can't provide good institutional support for investors, but also the existence of political risks even makes investors face the risk of capital loss. After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's socialist market economic system has been gradually improved and perfected, but the system is still relatively low, which is a heavy boost to China's capital export. At present, China's capital export is still in a low-level development stage, the target area is not very clear, there is blindness of "fixed-fixed" and the domestic driving force is greater than the foreign attraction.
Thirdly, when making transnational business decisions in countries or regions with high institutional quality, enterprises tend to export to countries or regions with higher institutional quality and invest in countries or regions with lower institutional distance.
The countries or regions with higher institutional quality have great attraction to China's export trade and foreign direct investment. The higher institutional quality of the target country means that the various systems are relatively perfect, which can provide institutional guarantee for the transnational operation of enterprises and reduce transaction costs. To maximize operating profit, the higher institutional quality of the target country may also mean a greater institutional difference from China. The greater institutional differences will make operators face a more unfamiliar institutional environment. Transnational transactions are different from domestic transactions. Only when the operators are familiar with and adapt to this environment can they successfully operate in the target country. In developing transnational business, the industry first determines the region with high institutional quality, and then chooses the export operation mode and the investment operation mode. This decision is closely related to the institutional distance. When the institutional distance is large, it means that the transaction cost of the operator may be large. In this case, the export trade mode is more favorable. When the institutional distance is small, it means that the transaction cost of the operator may be small. In this case, the transnational investment model may be the optimal decision of the operator. In transnational decision-making of high institutional quality countries or regions, they tend to export to high institutional quality countries or regions with relatively large institutional distance and invest in high institutional quality countries or regions with relatively small institutional distance.
Fourth, informal institutional language has an important impact on export trade and foreign investment.
Since the reform and opening up, especially after China's accession to the WTO, China's export of goods and capital has increased rapidly. The volume of export trade of goods ranks first in the world, the flow of foreign investment ranks third in the world, the huge volume of export trade and foreign investment have made great contributions to China's economic growth. At present, Chinese is not an international language, so we often use English or other languages when we trade with major countries in the world. Therefore, we bear a lot of language learning costs. Under the open economy, small countries are the main bearers of the cost of language. With the increase of the number of people studying international languages in their own countries, the development of foreign economic and trade relations will be faster, but there is a limit on the proportion of people learning common languages. If the limit is exceeded, it will be counter-productive. Language learning capital investment can also promote the development of foreign economic and trade relations, but there is still a certain degree of unreasonable investment in language learning in China. International promotion of language is conducive to reducing transaction costs, if the world has a unified international language, international economic and trade exchanges. There is no need to learn more than one language, the cost of language learning will be greatly reduced, communication between countries will be more convenient, conducive to transnational transactions and the development of the global economy.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62
本文编号：2192044
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved unprecedented sustained and rapid growth. The total economic output in 2012 has ranked second in the world for three consecutive years. China is a big importer and exporter of the world's third capital. China has become a real trading and investment country. According to macro-statistics, China's export trade mainly distributes in countries or regions with high institutional quality, and exports less to countries or regions with poor institutional quality. Effective institutional arrangements can reduce transaction costs and enhance product competitiveness. Institutional factors are the most fundamental factors for national prosperity, far more important than resources, population and capital. Institutions are the key factors affecting the location choice of China's export trade and foreign direct investment. China's export of commodities and capital not only prefers countries or regions with high economic development level, but also prefers countries or regions with high institutional quality. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of destination country system on China's export trade and FDI location choice.
Based on the analysis of the history and current situation of China's export trade and foreign investment, this paper divides the system into formal and informal systems, explains the mechanism of the impact of the system on export trade and foreign investment, establishes the evaluation index system of the system, establishes the institutional arrangements and China's export trade and foreign investment by setting relevant indicators. Based on the mathematical model of the relationship between investment and China's export trade, this paper makes quantitative analysis from the aspects of institutional quality and institutional distance by using the relevant statistical data of China's export trade and foreign investment, respectively studies the effects of institutional arrangements on the location distribution of China's export trade and foreign investment, and synthesizes the institutional arrangements on the selection of China's export trade and foreign investment patterns. The study of synergistic effects is a supplement and development to the interdisciplinary theories of international trade and institutional economics.
Firstly, based on the microscopic foundation of the trade gravity model, this paper deduces the system variable embedded in the extended trade gravity model by utilizing the utility function, and then constructs the econometric model to study the overall system quality, the single system quality and the single system quality by using the macroscopic statistical data of representative countries or regions. In this paper, the classification of the system is more detailed, and the research on the impact of the system on China's export trade is more comprehensive and in-depth.
Secondly, by embedding institutional variables into the extended investment gravity model, this paper constructs an econometric model and makes use of macro-statistical data of representative countries or regions to empirically study the impact of overall institutional quality, individual institutional quality and a single institutional quality on the location choice of China's FDI. In order to explore the inherent law of the location distribution of China's FDI, this paper makes a more comprehensive and in-depth study on the impact of the system on the location choice of China's FDI.
Thirdly, from the perspective of transaction cost, this paper explores the location choice relationship between China's export trade and foreign direct investment. China's export trade and foreign investment are distributed in nearly 200 countries or regions in the world, but this distribution is relatively concentrated and has certain internal laws. The existing literature mainly focuses on the impact of economic factors. This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between China's export trade and foreign direct investment. The influence of institutional factors on the choice of export and investment mode of transnational business operators.
Fourthly, a theoretical model of the impact of language on China's export trade and foreign investment is constructed based on the theory of tariff union. Manpower and capital input of language are used as proxy variables of language cost. The influence of language transaction cost on the location choice of export trade and foreign investment is empirically studied, and linguistic economics and international trade are combined. Together, the study is complementary to the existing international trade theory.
Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, the main conclusions of this paper are:
First, China's export trade favours countries or regions with high system quality.
The higher the quality of the importing country's system, the higher the efficiency of the government's work, the stricter the supervision of the country's market, the greater the political guarantee for China's export trade, and the greater the attraction of China's goods. Good legal environment can effectively punish the breach of contract, guarantee the normal performance of the contract and protect the interests of importers and exporters. Export trade should take into account not only the economic development level of the importing country but also the institutional quality of the importing country. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the fact that the world ranking of China's system quality is still relatively backward, there is still a certain gap compared with the more developed countries or regions, China's comparative advantage of the system still has great potential to play, in the future we should further deepen the reform of the system, improve and perfect the relevant laws and regulations, improve the quality of the system, and promote the system ratio. The transformation from comparative advantage to competitive advantage can bring into play the role of the system in promoting our national economy.
Second, China's foreign direct investment is preferred to countries or regions with high system quality.
The overseas investment of multinational corporations in export trade is more affected by the institutional environment of the host country than that of the multinational corporations in export trade. The legality of the production and operation system of multinational corporations is an important determinant of successful operation. The host country with higher institutional quality can guarantee the free flow of capital. If the host country can provide institutional support for the production and operation of the investors, it will be beneficial to reduce transaction costs and conform to the operating strategy of maximizing the profits of the investors. The poor host country not only can't provide good institutional support for investors, but also the existence of political risks even makes investors face the risk of capital loss. After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China's socialist market economic system has been gradually improved and perfected, but the system is still relatively low, which is a heavy boost to China's capital export. At present, China's capital export is still in a low-level development stage, the target area is not very clear, there is blindness of "fixed-fixed" and the domestic driving force is greater than the foreign attraction.
Thirdly, when making transnational business decisions in countries or regions with high institutional quality, enterprises tend to export to countries or regions with higher institutional quality and invest in countries or regions with lower institutional distance.
The countries or regions with higher institutional quality have great attraction to China's export trade and foreign direct investment. The higher institutional quality of the target country means that the various systems are relatively perfect, which can provide institutional guarantee for the transnational operation of enterprises and reduce transaction costs. To maximize operating profit, the higher institutional quality of the target country may also mean a greater institutional difference from China. The greater institutional differences will make operators face a more unfamiliar institutional environment. Transnational transactions are different from domestic transactions. Only when the operators are familiar with and adapt to this environment can they successfully operate in the target country. In developing transnational business, the industry first determines the region with high institutional quality, and then chooses the export operation mode and the investment operation mode. This decision is closely related to the institutional distance. When the institutional distance is large, it means that the transaction cost of the operator may be large. In this case, the export trade mode is more favorable. When the institutional distance is small, it means that the transaction cost of the operator may be small. In this case, the transnational investment model may be the optimal decision of the operator. In transnational decision-making of high institutional quality countries or regions, they tend to export to high institutional quality countries or regions with relatively large institutional distance and invest in high institutional quality countries or regions with relatively small institutional distance.
Fourth, informal institutional language has an important impact on export trade and foreign investment.
Since the reform and opening up, especially after China's accession to the WTO, China's export of goods and capital has increased rapidly. The volume of export trade of goods ranks first in the world, the flow of foreign investment ranks third in the world, the huge volume of export trade and foreign investment have made great contributions to China's economic growth. At present, Chinese is not an international language, so we often use English or other languages when we trade with major countries in the world. Therefore, we bear a lot of language learning costs. Under the open economy, small countries are the main bearers of the cost of language. With the increase of the number of people studying international languages in their own countries, the development of foreign economic and trade relations will be faster, but there is a limit on the proportion of people learning common languages. If the limit is exceeded, it will be counter-productive. Language learning capital investment can also promote the development of foreign economic and trade relations, but there is still a certain degree of unreasonable investment in language learning in China. International promotion of language is conducive to reducing transaction costs, if the world has a unified international language, international economic and trade exchanges. There is no need to learn more than one language, the cost of language learning will be greatly reduced, communication between countries will be more convenient, conducive to transnational transactions and the development of the global economy.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62
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