影子银行对我国货币政策效果的影响

发布时间：2018-08-28 12:22

【摘要】：自2008年起,国际金融危机席卷全球并不断蔓延扩散,美国大批的金融集团如雷曼兄弟、华盛顿互惠银行、内华达州银行等相继倒闭。欧洲债务危机不断升级,随着希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙等国家主权信用评级相继下调,以及欧洲股市不断暴跌,整个欧盟地区都陷入危机之中。影子银行被认为是此次金融危机爆发的导火索,并且其固有脆弱性和监管上的空白给金融稳定带来了巨大的挑战,从而受到各级政府及学术界的广泛关注。在我国,由于金融市场尚处于发展阶段,金融创新与西方发达国家相比仍有一定的差距,我国的影子银行也呈现出中国特有的性质。我国尚不存在一般意义上的影子银行,我国的影子银行主要是一些有银行之实但无银行之名的金融机构及金融业务,这些金融机构包括民间借贷机构、典当行、私募股权基金、小额贷款公司、融资性担保机构和农村资金互助机构等。我国影子银行体系正处于快速发展阶段,所以研究它对货币政策的影响具有重要的理论和实践意义。首先,货币政策是货币市场的核心,次贷危机过后,对于各经济体的经济复苏以及宏观目标的实现,货币政策调控已然成为一个重要的工具。通过探究影子银行对货币政策的影响,激发政府对现有货币政策的深思,不断地调整货币政策的方向使其适应我国经济的发展,从而建立一个成熟与稳定的货币政策体系。其次,通过对影子银行的研究,我们可以利用其好的一面来服务我国的金融市场,利用其强大的融资功能来填补我国商业银行融资的不足,并推进我国金融创新步伐；我们也应规避其坏的一面来维护我国金融市场的稳定,对于其释放的大量风险,寻找有效的货币政策来加以控制,从根源上化解其存在的问题。最后,我国影子银行的发展尚处于初步阶段,还没有触及到西方发达国家复杂的金融创新工具,研究国内外的影子银行对我国金融市场的创新发展有重大的意义。本文通过理论与实证相结合的方式,研究了影子银行对我国货币政策效果的影响。首先,本文详细介绍了影子银行相关概念,包括影子银行的界定、分类以及成因,让人们了解影子银行的内涵,为后面的内容做铺垫。然后,本文从货币政策工具“三大法宝”和最终目标两个方面,详细阐述了影子银行对我国货币政策效果影响的理论分析,理论结果是：影子银行会削弱货币政策工具“三大法宝”的作用力,并且不利于我国货币政策最终目标的实现。随后,本文通过实证的方式对前面的理论分析进行证实,本文建立两个VAR模型,模型1中没有加入影子银行指标而模型2中加入影子银行指标,通过对比两个模型的脉冲响应图及方差分解结果,得出了与理论分析相吻合的实证结论：影子银行削弱了数量型货币政策工具的实施效果,具体为削弱了公开市场操作和法定存款准备金的实施力度,并且不利于我国货币政策最终目标的实现。最后,根据本文理论结果和实证结果,分别在影子银行的发展和完善货币政策体系上提出了相应的政策建议。本文的创新点在于：现有的文献大多数是基于完善影子银行监管方面的研究,或者是从金融稳定方面进行研究,从货币政策角度进行研究的较少,然而货币政策是我国宏观经济稳定发展的指引灯,本文将影子银行和货币政策两者联系起来分析。基于我国特殊的国情,通过理论与实证相结合的方式,分析了影子银行对我国货币政策效果的影响,为适当地发展我国影子银行、完善我国货币政策提供了现实依据。由于作者水平有限,本文也存在一些不足之处：第一,在影子银行规模测算上存在一定的误差,由于民间借贷、私募股权基金等业务也占据了影子银行一定的比例,而这些数据无法获得,所以会造成统计上的误差；第二,在指标选取上,如货币政策工具“三大法宝”中的再贴现率,由于不具有代表性,没有加入到模型中,以及货币政策中介目标,由于模型的平稳性要求,也未能加入到模型中进行分析；第三,本文对货币政策的研究还不够深入,由于对货币政策及影子银行理论的掌握还不够透彻,未能全面地进行分析,也需要日后进一步改进。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, the international financial crisis has swept the world and spread, a large number of U.S. financial groups such as Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual Bank, Nevada Bank and so on have collapsed. The whole EU region is in crisis. Shadow banking is regarded as the trigger of the financial crisis, and its inherent fragility and regulatory gaps have brought great challenges to financial stability, which has attracted wide attention from governments and academia at all levels.
In our country, because the financial market is still in the stage of development, there is still a certain gap between financial innovation and western developed countries, and the shadow banks in our country also show the characteristics of China. And financial business, these financial institutions include private lending institutions, pawnbrokers, private equity funds, small loan companies, financing guarantee institutions and rural mutual funds institutions.
China's shadow banking system is in a rapid development stage, so it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study its impact on monetary policy. Firstly, monetary policy is the core of the monetary market. After the subprime mortgage crisis, monetary policy regulation has become an important factor for the economic recovery and the realization of macro-economic goals of the economies. By exploring the influence of shadow banking on monetary policy, we can stimulate the government to think deeply about the existing monetary policy, constantly adjust the direction of monetary policy to adapt to China's economic development, thus establishing a mature and stable monetary policy system. Serving China's financial market, we should make use of its powerful financing function to fill the financing deficiencies of China's commercial banks and promote the pace of financial innovation; we should also avoid its bad side to maintain the stability of China's financial market, for its release of a large number of risks, to find effective monetary policy to control, from the root to resolve. Finally, the development of shadow banking in China is still in its infancy and has not touched the complicated financial innovation tools of western developed countries. It is of great significance to study the shadow banking at home and abroad for the innovation and development of China's financial market.
This paper studies the effect of shadow banking on China's monetary policy through theoretical and empirical methods. First of all, this paper introduces the related concepts of shadow banking, including the definition, classification and causes of formation of shadow banking, so that people can understand the connotation of shadow banking and pave the way for the latter. This paper elaborates on the theoretical analysis of the influence of shadow banking on the effect of monetary policy in China from two aspects: the "three magic weapons" and the ultimate goal. The theoretical result is that shadow banking will weaken the effect of the "three magic weapons" of monetary policy instruments and is not conducive to the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy in China. By comparing the impulse response diagram and variance decomposition results of the two models, we get the empirical conclusion that the shadow bank weakens the quantity goods. The implementation effect of monetary policy tools is to weaken the implementation of open market operation and statutory deposit reserve, and is not conducive to the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy in China.
The innovation of this paper lies in: most of the existing literature is based on the study of perfecting the shadow banking supervision, or from the aspect of financial stability, less from the perspective of monetary policy. However, monetary policy is the guiding light of macroeconomic stability and development in China. This paper links the shadow banking and monetary policy. Based on China's special national conditions, this paper analyzes the effect of shadow banking on China's monetary policy through the combination of theory and empirical analysis, which provides a realistic basis for the proper development of shadow banking and the improvement of China's monetary policy.
Because the author's level is limited, there are also some shortcomings in this paper. First, there are some errors in the measurement of the size of shadow banks. Because of private lending, private equity funds and other businesses also occupy a certain proportion of shadow banks, and these data can not be obtained, so it will cause statistical errors; second, in the selection of indicators, such as The rediscount rate in the "three magic weapons" of monetary policy instruments, which is not representative, has not been added to the model, and the intermediate target of monetary policy, has not been added to the model for analysis because of the stability requirements of the model; third, the study of monetary policy in this paper is not deep enough, because of the monetary policy and shadow banks. The mastery of theory is not thorough enough. It can not be comprehensively analyzed, and it needs further improvement in the future.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.3;F822.0

【参考文献】