我国通货膨胀惯性与货币政策启示
发布时间：2018-08-30 20:53
【摘要】：通货膨胀惯性在通货膨胀动态机制研究中正受到越米越多的关注,目前普遍接受的一种观点为：通货膨胀惯性越高,货币政策的滞后过程一般也更长。正是因为通货膨胀惯性直接影响着货币政策的调控效果,货币当局只有深入理解和把握通货膨胀在受到各种冲击后的调整速度,才有可能制定和实施最优的货币政策。另一方面,在影响货币政策实施效果的同时,通货膨胀惯性本身也受到各种宏观经济因素的影响。通过观察通货膨胀惯性系数与通胀率、通胀预期和M1增长率之间的关系,能够明显看出这几个变量序列的波动有着近乎同步的趋势。那么,我国的通货膨胀惯性到底处于什么样的水平?哪些因素影响着我国的通货膨胀惯性?影响通货膨胀惯性的这些因素分别对通胀惯性起到多大的推动作用?这些因素各自对通货膨胀惯性作用的反应快慢、持续时间又是怎样?我国的通货膨胀惯性动态特征对制定前瞻性的货币政策决策和实施有效的货币政策有什么样的借鉴意义?带着这一系列疑问,本文以通货膨胀惯性系数的估计为起点研究了其与通胀水平、通胀预期和货币政策之间的影响关系,不仅包含理论分析,也进行了实证检验。本文先是回顾并归纳已有的相关研究,分析了我国通货膨胀惯性的研究现状。阐述了通胀惯性的含义和特征,在此基础上,通过一定理论分析,尝试着论述通胀惯性受到通胀水平、通胀预期和货币政策影响的机制。为了验证它们之间的互动关系,本文又进行了实证检验,先是应用状态空间变参数模型动态的估计了我国通货膨胀惯性系数,其次,采用VAR模型、脉冲响应和方差分解等手段来分析我国通货膨胀惯性的影响机制和动态特征。检验结果表明,首先,我国的通胀惯性水平一直较高；其次,通胀惯性受到通胀水平、通胀预期和货币政策的影响和冲击,且这三者对通胀惯性影响的大小、反应快慢、持续时间各有不同。具体来讲,通胀率对当期通货膨胀惯性的影响最大,通胀预期和货币政策对通胀惯性的影响存在一定滞后性,它们对当期通胀惯性影响相对较小但是对后期的影响不容小视。在以上分析的基础上,结合我国的通胀水平和通货膨胀动态机制的现状,本文提出了一些相关的政策建议,希望能对该领域的研究及通货膨胀调控政策的制定和实施有所贡献。
[Abstract]:Inflation inertia is receiving more and more attention in the study of inflation dynamic mechanism. At present, it is generally accepted that the higher the inflation inertia is, the longer the lagging process of monetary policy is. It is precisely because inflation inertia directly affects the effect of monetary policy regulation that monetary authorities can formulate and implement the optimal monetary policy only by deeply understanding and grasping the adjustment speed of inflation after all kinds of shocks. On the other hand, inflation inertia itself is influenced by various macroeconomic factors while affecting the effect of monetary policy. By observing the relationship between the number of inertial system of inflation and inflation rate, inflation expectation and M1 growth rate, it is obvious that the fluctuation of these variables has a nearly synchronous trend. So, what is the level of inflation inertia in China? What factors affect China's inflation inertia? These factors that affect the inertia of inflation play an important role in promoting the inertia of inflation. How quickly and slowly do these factors react to the inertia of inflation, and what is the duration? What is the significance of the dynamic characteristics of inflation inertia in formulating forward-looking monetary policy decisions and implementing effective monetary policies? With this series of questions, this paper takes the estimation of inertia coefficient of inflation as the starting point to study the relationship between inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy, including not only theoretical analysis, but also empirical test. This paper first reviews and summarizes the related studies, and analyzes the current situation of inflation inertia research in China. This paper expounds the meaning and characteristics of inflation inertia, and tries to discuss the mechanism of inflation inertia influenced by inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy through certain theoretical analysis. In order to verify the interaction between them, this paper makes an empirical test. First, we use the state-space variable parameter model to dynamically estimate the inertia coefficient of inflation in China. Secondly, we use the VAR model to estimate the inertia coefficient of inflation in China. Impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the influence mechanism and dynamic characteristics of inflation inertia in China. The results show that, firstly, the inflation inertia level in China is always high; secondly, inflation inertia is affected and impacted by inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy, and these three factors react quickly to the influence of inflation inertia. The duration varies. Specifically, inflation has the greatest influence on the current inflation inertia, and inflation expectations and monetary policy have a certain lag effect on inflation inertia, they have relatively little impact on the current inflation inertia, but the impact on the later period should not be underestimated. On the basis of the above analysis, combined with the current situation of inflation level and inflation dynamic mechanism in China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions, hoping to contribute to the research in this field and the formulation and implementation of inflation control policies.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F822.0
本文编号：2214263
[Abstract]:Inflation inertia is receiving more and more attention in the study of inflation dynamic mechanism. At present, it is generally accepted that the higher the inflation inertia is, the longer the lagging process of monetary policy is. It is precisely because inflation inertia directly affects the effect of monetary policy regulation that monetary authorities can formulate and implement the optimal monetary policy only by deeply understanding and grasping the adjustment speed of inflation after all kinds of shocks. On the other hand, inflation inertia itself is influenced by various macroeconomic factors while affecting the effect of monetary policy. By observing the relationship between the number of inertial system of inflation and inflation rate, inflation expectation and M1 growth rate, it is obvious that the fluctuation of these variables has a nearly synchronous trend. So, what is the level of inflation inertia in China? What factors affect China's inflation inertia? These factors that affect the inertia of inflation play an important role in promoting the inertia of inflation. How quickly and slowly do these factors react to the inertia of inflation, and what is the duration? What is the significance of the dynamic characteristics of inflation inertia in formulating forward-looking monetary policy decisions and implementing effective monetary policies? With this series of questions, this paper takes the estimation of inertia coefficient of inflation as the starting point to study the relationship between inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy, including not only theoretical analysis, but also empirical test. This paper first reviews and summarizes the related studies, and analyzes the current situation of inflation inertia research in China. This paper expounds the meaning and characteristics of inflation inertia, and tries to discuss the mechanism of inflation inertia influenced by inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy through certain theoretical analysis. In order to verify the interaction between them, this paper makes an empirical test. First, we use the state-space variable parameter model to dynamically estimate the inertia coefficient of inflation in China. Secondly, we use the VAR model to estimate the inertia coefficient of inflation in China. Impulse response and variance decomposition are used to analyze the influence mechanism and dynamic characteristics of inflation inertia in China. The results show that, firstly, the inflation inertia level in China is always high; secondly, inflation inertia is affected and impacted by inflation level, inflation expectation and monetary policy, and these three factors react quickly to the influence of inflation inertia. The duration varies. Specifically, inflation has the greatest influence on the current inflation inertia, and inflation expectations and monetary policy have a certain lag effect on inflation inertia, they have relatively little impact on the current inflation inertia, but the impact on the later period should not be underestimated. On the basis of the above analysis, combined with the current situation of inflation level and inflation dynamic mechanism in China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions, hoping to contribute to the research in this field and the formulation and implementation of inflation control policies.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F822.0
【引证文献】
相关会议论文 前1条
1 李敏;王相宁;缪柏其;;我国通货膨胀率的动态波动机制及政策启示[A];第十届中国管理科学学术年会论文集[C];2008年
，本文编号：2214263
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