基于VAR模型的人民币汇率对经济增长影响的研究

发布时间：2018-09-13 15:23

【摘要】：在开放经济条件下,汇率作为重要的宏观经济变量,是联系国内外经济的纽带和桥梁。一方面,汇率是决定对外贸易和国际资本流动的核心因素,直接影响着一国的国际收支状况。另一方面,汇率又通过消费、物价、货币供给等因素影响经济稳定增长。目前,西方发达国家陷入经济衰退,而中国经济却伴随着人民币的不断升值和国际收支帐户的严重失衡,不改其持续稳定增长态势。这给人民币带来了巨大的升值压力。因此,探究人民币汇率对我国经济增长的影响,回答国际舆论压力,保持国内经济稳定增长,意义重大。理论上,汇率与经济增长密切相关。从国际收支的角度来看,通常认为,贬值会促进经济增长,升值会抑制经济增长。因为贬值会通过促进出口、抑制进口而扩大贸易顺差,贬值还有利于吸引外商直接投资,升值反之。而本文的实证分析发现,人民币汇率升值在短期内会抑制经济增长,但是长期内却能促进经济增长,我国经济不会因此出现衰退。而且,升值无法从根本上解决我国国际收支失衡的现状。基于实证研究结果,本文认为央行不必过于担心人民币升值可能会对经济增长造成抑制作用,同时也需要认识到的是汇率政策扭对转国际收支失衡现状能起到的也许只是缓解作用。因此,我国的汇率政策应在维稳和逐渐放开之间寻求一种平衡和过度,汇率政策目标可以考虑向如下三个方面靠拢：放开人民币升值幅度,规避汇率风险,缓解国际收支失衡。同时也可以分阶段、分步骤地实行以下汇率政策措施：一、促进人民币形成机制的市场化,扩大浮动区间；二、完善外汇市场和外汇管理体制,规避汇率风险；三、逐步开放资本帐户,争取实现人民币在资本和金融项目下的可兑换。通过汇率政策的实施发挥汇率对经济的调节作用,更好地促进我国经济增长。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of open economy, exchange rate, as an important macroeconomic variable, is the link and bridge between domestic and foreign economy. On the one hand, exchange rate is the core factor to determine foreign trade and international capital flow, which directly affects a country's balance of payments. On the other hand, the exchange rate affects economic growth through consumption, prices, money supply and other factors. At present, the western developed countries are in economic recession, while China's economy is accompanied by the continuous appreciation of the RMB and the serious imbalance in the balance of payments account, without changing its sustained and stable growth trend. This brings great pressure on the appreciation of RMB. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's economic growth, to answer the pressure of international public opinion and to maintain the steady growth of domestic economy. In theory, the exchange rate and economic growth are closely related. From the balance of payments point of view, it is generally believed that depreciation will promote economic growth, appreciation will suppress economic growth. Because the depreciation will expand the trade surplus by promoting exports, restraining imports, depreciation is also conducive to attracting foreign direct investment, appreciation vice versa. The empirical analysis of this paper finds that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate will restrain economic growth in the short term, but it can promote economic growth in the long run. Moreover, appreciation can not fundamentally solve the current situation of China's balance of payments imbalance. Based on the empirical results, this paper argues that the central bank should not worry too much about the revaluation of the RMB, which may inhibit economic growth. It is also important to realize that the shift in exchange rate policy to the current balance of payments imbalance may only play a role in alleviating it. Therefore, China's exchange rate policy should seek a kind of balance and excess between maintaining stability and gradually liberalizing. The goal of exchange rate policy can be taken into consideration in the following three aspects: liberalizing the range of RMB appreciation, avoiding the exchange rate risk, and alleviating the imbalance of international balance of payments. At the same time, the following exchange rate policy measures can also be implemented in stages and steps: first, to promote the marketization of the RMB formation mechanism and to expand the floating range; second, to improve the foreign exchange market and foreign exchange management system to avoid exchange rate risks; and third, Gradually open the capital account and strive to achieve convertibility of RMB under capital and financial accounts. Through the implementation of exchange rate policy to play the role of exchange rate to adjust the economy, better promote China's economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124

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