资本账户开放对人民币国际化的影响与对策分析

发布时间：2018-09-19 12:00

【摘要】：中国自改革开放以来,与世界经济的联系逐渐加深,并且随着中国经济实力的不断增强、人民币影响力的不断上升,人民币国际化已成为了势不可挡的趋势,其对于中国经济的发展及世界地位的形成也显得愈加重要。中国是一个由计划经济体制向市场经济体制过渡的国家,在经济的各个方面尤其资本流出入仍然存在着较为严格的管制。据此有些学者认为,资本账户的管制已经阻碍到人民币国际化的进程并且应该逐步开放,有些学者则认为,资本账户在中国现阶段的管制仍然是必要的。而我国近年来为推动人民币国际化也不断做出努力和尝试,如何以资本账户开放来推动人民币国际化就显得尤为重要。本文旨在通过对资本账户开放对货币国际化的影响研究,提出中国资本账户开放对于推动人民币国际化的政策建议。为了研究资本账户开放对于人民币国际化的影响,首先要清楚二者之间的关系,而根据历史的线索了解中国已经发展到什么样的程度以及中国政府对这两方面的态度和政策变化,这有助于对两者关系做出客观的解释,同时也作为我们提出政策建议的根据。所以本文首先分别对二者的发展历程以及现状和特点进行描述。对于资本账户开放历程的起点设置在1978年我国改革开放,因为之前中国在此之前仍然是计划体制经济;而人民币国际化历程的起点则从1994年中国实行汇率并轨制改革、人民币经常项下有条件兑换开始。同时,回顾国际历史经验对于评价二者关系也是至关重要的,本文在对国内情况进行概述分析后,通过对美国、日本、德国的资本账户开放同货币国际化关系的规范分析得出资本账户开放确实是推动一国货币国际化的关键因素,资本的有效流通将增加人民对货币的信心,从而提高货币计价、结算和作为储备货币的比重。为了验证和支撑规范分析,我们对世界五种主要货币美元、英镑、日元、瑞士法郎和欧元进行了国际化影响因素的实证分析,通过建立面板数据模型主要观察资本账户开放对于货币国际化的影响,通过对内直接投资净值、对外直接投资净值和证券股权净流入三个变量的综合描述来体现资本账户的开放程度。为了得到更准确的数据,更客观的判断资本账户开放对于货币国际化的影响,将货币国际化的其他主要因素相结合一同进行模型回归。在计量中发现,个体效应十分明显,这表示对于不同的国家,资本开放的影响都具有其特性的。我们应该根据中国经济发展的特点来做出资本账户开放的判断和选择。本文认为中国应在遵循循序渐进、统筹规划和严格监督原则的基础上,扩大QFII、QDII以及RDFII等资本账户过渡阶段政策的审批量和审批国家。同时,发展和完善在岸市场,使离岸、在岸市场的发展相呼应,更加协调,避免货币错配风险;在严格监管直接投资资格的同时扩大投资范围。资本账户开放的风险很大程度上取决于金融市场的发展程度,所以为了避免资本账户开放所带来的剧烈波动,应完善我国的金融市场制度。除了对内改革,我国也应积极对外合作,加强与周边国家的合作,从而提高议价定价能力,进一步扩大人民币国际化程度。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has gradually deepened its ties with the world economy, and with the continuous strengthening of China's economic strength and the rising influence of the RMB, the internationalization of the RMB has become an irresistible trend, which is becoming more and more important to the development of China's economy and the formation of its world status. Some scholars believe that the control of capital account has hindered the process of RMB internationalization and should be gradually opened up. Some scholars believe that the capital account in China at this stage. Regulation is still necessary. In recent years, China has made efforts and attempts to promote the internationalization of RMB. How to promote the internationalization of RMB through the opening of capital account is particularly important. In order to study the impact of capital account opening on RMB internationalization, we should first understand the relationship between the two. According to historical clues, we should know what extent China has developed and the attitude and policy changes of the Chinese government towards the two aspects, which will help to make an objective relationship between the two. Therefore, this paper first describes the development process, status quo and characteristics of the two. The starting point of the process of capital account opening is set in 1978, China's reform and opening up, because China was still a planned economy before this; and the process of RMB internationalization. At the same time, it is very important to review the international historical experience for evaluating the relationship between the two. After summarizing and analyzing the domestic situation, this paper analyzes the relationship between the opening of capital account and currency internationalization in the United States, Japan and Germany. Normative analysis shows that capital account opening is indeed the key factor to promote the internationalization of a country's currency. The effective flow of capital will increase people's confidence in the currency, thereby increasing the currency valuation, settlement and the proportion of the reserve currency. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors influencing the internationalization of the franc and the euro. By establishing a panel data model, it mainly observes the impact of capital account liberalization on currency internationalization. In order to get more accurate data, judge the impact of capital account liberalization on currency internationalization more objectively, and combine other major factors of currency internationalization with regression model. According to the characteristics of China's economic development, China should follow the principles of gradual progress, overall planning and strict supervision, expand the examination and approval of QFII, QDII, RDFII and other capital account transitional policies, and develop and improve the onshore market to offshore. The risk of capital account liberalization depends largely on the degree of development of the financial market. Therefore, in order to avoid the violent fluctuation brought by capital account liberalization, we should perfect our financial market. In addition to domestic reform, China should also actively cooperate with foreign countries to strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries, so as to improve the bargaining power and further expand the internationalization of the RMB.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6

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