中国金融安全指数动态监测比较分析

发布时间：2018-10-17 12:19

【摘要】：文章构建了中国金融安全监测指标池,从宏观经济运行、金融机构运行与外部金融风险3个维度构建了中国金融安全监测评价指标体系,在通过AHP法确定指标权重与划分中国金融安全区间与警度区间的基础上,对1995～2009年中国金融安全指数进行了定量测度,结果发现:(1)近15年中国金融安全指数呈现出明显的周期逐渐缩短的波动状态,波动频率在逐步加大;(2)中国金融安全有3年处于轻警警度,其余年份均处于无警度,其中有5年处于高度安全状态;(3)1996～2000年、2001～2004年两时期中国金融安全状态处于平稳上升阶段,后阶段较前阶段上升速度更快;(4)2005年与2008年中国金融处于轻警警度的轻度不安全,后为应对国际金融危机的国内经济刺激计划与积极鼓励出口政策下,2009年金融市场运行恢复,经济增速回升,金融安全状态回升至高度安全状态。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs the index pool of China's financial security monitoring, and constructs the evaluation index system of China's financial security monitoring from the three dimensions of macroeconomic operation, operation of financial institutions and external financial risks. On the basis of determining index weight and dividing Chinese financial security interval and warning interval by AHP method, the financial security index of China from 1995 to 2009 is measured quantitatively. The results are as follows: (1) China's financial security index (FSI) shows a state of fluctuation in the past 15 years, and the fluctuation frequency is gradually increasing; (2) China's financial security has been in a light alert for 3 years, and no warning for the rest of the year. Among them, 5 years are in a high level of security; (3) China's financial security status rose steadily from 1996 to 2000, 2001 to 2004, and the latter stage rose more rapidly than the previous stage; (4) China's finance was in the mild insecurity of light warning in 2005 and 2008. In order to deal with the international financial crisis, the domestic economic stimulus plan and the positive export encouragement policy, in 2009, the financial market operation resumed, the economic growth rate picked up, and the financial security state returned to a high level of security.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目[项目编号:GX2010-1017(Y)]
【分类号】：F832

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