人民币升值对中国吸引FDI影响分析
发布时间：2018-10-18 19:33
【摘要】：外商直接投资为一个国家的经济发展给予了额外的资金支持,而汇率变动通过影响一国吸收外商直接投资的能力,间接的对一国的经济发展和产业结构的调整产生作用。为了适应国际金融发展,2005年中央人民银行进行了人民币汇率改革,人民币汇率弹性显著增加,人民币升值预期也逐渐加强,并在这几年中人民币升值的压力一直存在,不仅人民币对美元汇率一路上升,而且实际有效汇率指数在近几年来高速攀升,屡创新高。国内外学者认为一国汇率水平的变化将会对其外资流入产生极其深刻的影响,因此人民币升值已成为影响我国FDI流入的不可忽视的重要影响因素。当前我国正面临着越来越大的国内外不平衡,美国次贷危机和全球金融危机使得世界范围内的外商直接投资放缓,对中国经济也带来了负面影响。因此,在人民币持续升值的宏观背景下,研究人民币汇率变动,尤其是人民币升值对我国FDI流入的影响就显得尤为重要。 本文采用理论和实证相结合的办法,对人民币升值对中国吸引FDI流入的不同影响进行了分析,实证部分数据主要来源于中国统计年鉴和IMF等相关政府机构网站。论文第一章首先详细介绍了选题的具体背景和相关研究方法。第二章对国内外相关研究进行了梳理和评述。第三章分析了中国外汇变动和FDI发展的历史与现状,同时对中国吸收FDI的来源地、地区分布和行业分布进行了专门分析：我国吸收FDI来源地仍然高度集中,制造业仍然是外商直接投资的第一选择。在地区选择上,东部地区吸引外商直接投资的优势依然存在。第四章分析了汇率变动对FDI影响的机制,主要有竞争效应,财富效应,部门效应和心理预期效应等。第五章为论文的实证部分,通过平稳性检验和协整关系检验(Cointegration test)从整体角度研究了人民币实际汇率和中国FDI流入之间的具体相关性。最后研究了人民币升值的趋势对中国吸收FDI的影响,结合理论分析和实证研究,在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) provides additional financial support for the economic development of a country, and exchange rate fluctuations indirectly affect a country's economic development and industrial structure adjustment by affecting the ability of a country to absorb foreign direct investment (FDI). In order to adapt to the development of international finance, the Central people's Bank of China carried out the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005. The RMB exchange rate elasticity has increased significantly, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has been gradually strengthened. In recent years, the pressure of RMB appreciation has always existed. Not only does the yuan rise against the dollar, but the real effective exchange rate index has risen at a high rate in recent years. Domestic and foreign scholars believe that the change of a country's exchange rate level will have a profound impact on the inflow of foreign capital, so the appreciation of RMB has become an important factor that can not be ignored to affect the inflow of FDI in China. At present, China is facing more and more imbalance at home and abroad. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the global financial crisis have slowed down the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world, which has also brought negative impact to the Chinese economy. Therefore, under the macro background of RMB continuous appreciation, it is particularly important to study the impact of RMB exchange rate change, especially RMB appreciation, on the inflow of FDI in China. This paper analyzes the different effects of RMB appreciation on China's attracting FDI inflow by combining theory and practice. The empirical data are mainly from the websites of relevant government agencies such as China Statistical Yearbook and IMF. The first chapter introduces the background and research methods of the topic in detail. The second chapter reviews the related researches at home and abroad. The third chapter analyzes the history and present situation of China's foreign exchange change and FDI development. At the same time, it makes a special analysis of the origin, regional distribution and industry distribution of China's absorption of FDI: the origin of China's absorption of FDI is still highly concentrated. Manufacturing is still the first choice of foreign direct investment. In terms of regional choice, the eastern region still has the advantage of attracting foreign direct investment. Chapter four analyzes the mechanism of exchange rate change on FDI, including competition effect, wealth effect, sector effect and psychological expectation effect. The fifth chapter is the empirical part of the paper, through the stationary test and cointegration test (Cointegration test) from the overall perspective of the real exchange rate and China's FDI inflow specific correlation. Finally, this paper studies the influence of RMB appreciation trend on China's absorption of FDI. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：天津师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2280151
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) provides additional financial support for the economic development of a country, and exchange rate fluctuations indirectly affect a country's economic development and industrial structure adjustment by affecting the ability of a country to absorb foreign direct investment (FDI). In order to adapt to the development of international finance, the Central people's Bank of China carried out the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005. The RMB exchange rate elasticity has increased significantly, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has been gradually strengthened. In recent years, the pressure of RMB appreciation has always existed. Not only does the yuan rise against the dollar, but the real effective exchange rate index has risen at a high rate in recent years. Domestic and foreign scholars believe that the change of a country's exchange rate level will have a profound impact on the inflow of foreign capital, so the appreciation of RMB has become an important factor that can not be ignored to affect the inflow of FDI in China. At present, China is facing more and more imbalance at home and abroad. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the global financial crisis have slowed down the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world, which has also brought negative impact to the Chinese economy. Therefore, under the macro background of RMB continuous appreciation, it is particularly important to study the impact of RMB exchange rate change, especially RMB appreciation, on the inflow of FDI in China. This paper analyzes the different effects of RMB appreciation on China's attracting FDI inflow by combining theory and practice. The empirical data are mainly from the websites of relevant government agencies such as China Statistical Yearbook and IMF. The first chapter introduces the background and research methods of the topic in detail. The second chapter reviews the related researches at home and abroad. The third chapter analyzes the history and present situation of China's foreign exchange change and FDI development. At the same time, it makes a special analysis of the origin, regional distribution and industry distribution of China's absorption of FDI: the origin of China's absorption of FDI is still highly concentrated. Manufacturing is still the first choice of foreign direct investment. In terms of regional choice, the eastern region still has the advantage of attracting foreign direct investment. Chapter four analyzes the mechanism of exchange rate change on FDI, including competition effect, wealth effect, sector effect and psychological expectation effect. The fifth chapter is the empirical part of the paper, through the stationary test and cointegration test (Cointegration test) from the overall perspective of the real exchange rate and China's FDI inflow specific correlation. Finally, this paper studies the influence of RMB appreciation trend on China's absorption of FDI. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：天津师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6
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