市场化进程中的人民币汇率—利率互动机制研究

发布时间：2018-11-01 17:03

【摘要】：利率是市场经济条件下的重要指标,是各市场参与主体使用资金的成本的显著标志,对整个市场的都产生至关重要的作用。汇率则是在开放条件下的外汇市场上形成的核心变量,要受到国际收支、外汇市场、外汇储备和跨国资产组合等因素的影响。如果将一个国家的货币视为一项资产的话,利率就是这种货币在国内货币市场上的价格(或者称之为对内价格),与此同时,一个国家货币的汇率则是这种货币在国际市场中的表现(体现为对外价值),他们之间具有内在一致的价值基础,相互联系紧密。在开放经济的条件下,货币的利率与汇率两个经济变量之间相互作用、相互影响,更重要的是,他们之间可能同时受更为基本的宏观经济变量基础等因素(诸如货币供给等)作用而变动,构成一个体系复杂的动态反馈系统,形成利率-汇率互动机制。然而我们国内对于利率与汇率的互动机制关注过少,而对于利率-汇率互动机制缺乏足够的认识将会使得在我们逐步推进利率市场化改革的过程中缺乏对市场整体的把握而错失机会,甚至导致政策冲突,南辕北辙扰乱金融市场化改革的进程。然而,到底现在人民币汇率与利率之间是否存在互动关系,这样的互动关系是怎样作用并且如何影响政策发挥作用的呢,如何在存在互动效应的前提下实现利率政策与汇率政策的协调等有待我们进一步的研究。本文通过运用现代计量经济学的研究方法,探究大量数据背后利率与汇率之间联系。
[Abstract]:Interest rate is an important indicator in the market economy and a significant symbol of the cost of using funds by the participants in the market. It plays an important role in the whole market. The exchange rate is the core variable formed in the open foreign exchange market, which is influenced by the balance of payments, foreign exchange market, foreign exchange reserve and transnational portfolio. If a country's currency is considered an asset, the interest rate is the price of the currency on the domestic money market (or internal price), at the same time, The exchange rate of a country's currency is the performance of the currency in the international market. In an open economy, the interest rate of the currency and the exchange rate interact with each other and, more importantly, They may be affected by more basic macroeconomic variables (such as money supply) at the same time to form a complex system of dynamic feedback system to form an interest-exchange rate interaction mechanism. However, our domestic interest rate and exchange rate interaction mechanism is too little attention, And the lack of sufficient understanding of the rate-exchange rate interaction mechanism will make us lose the opportunity to grasp the market as a whole and even lead to policy conflicts in the process of gradually promoting the market-oriented interest rate reform. Diametrically different ruts disrupt the process of financial marketization reform. However, whether or not there is an interaction between the RMB exchange rate and the interest rate, how does such an interaction work and how does it affect policy? How to realize the coordination of interest rate policy and exchange rate policy under the premise of interaction needs further study. By using modern econometrics, this paper explores the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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