生产分割条件下人民币汇率出口传递效应研究

发布时间：2018-11-09 21:29

【摘要】：本文利用国内附加值指标(DVS)衡量国际生产分割中"国内成分"相对"国外成分"的比重,并将DVS指标引入到传统的汇率传递模型中考察了我国21类61章CH商品在1998～2007年间季度出口数据的汇率弹性系数。得出结论是:生产分割条件下的商品国内附加值比重是影响汇率出口传递效应的重要变量,国内附加值比重越大,汇率出口传递效应越明显,国内附加值比重越小,汇率出口传递效应越不完全。在我国大部分出口商品国内附加值比重偏低的情况下,汇率波动将通过进口中间产品的成本变化显著削弱我国出口产品价格及数量波动,最终造成汇率的不完全传递。由于各类商品DVS值的不同,这种不完全汇率传递效应在具有Low-DVS特征的高科技产品中表现最为明显,其次是劳动力密集型产品,最后是资源密集型产品。
[Abstract]:In this paper, (DVS) is used to measure the proportion of "domestic component" to "foreign component" in the division of international production. The DVS index is introduced into the traditional exchange rate transfer model to investigate the exchange rate elasticity coefficient of 21 types of 61 CH commodity export data from 1998 to 2007 in China. The conclusion is that the proportion of domestic added value of commodities under the condition of production segmentation is an important variable that affects the transfer effect of exchange rate export. The greater the proportion of domestic added value, the more obvious the effect of exchange rate export transmission, the smaller the proportion of domestic added value. Exchange rate export transmission effect is less complete. Under the condition that the proportion of domestic added value of most of our export commodities is on the low side, the fluctuation of exchange rate will weaken the fluctuation of price and quantity of Chinese export products through the change of cost of imported intermediate products, resulting in the incomplete transmission of exchange rate. Due to the difference of DVS value of all kinds of commodities, the transmission effect of incomplete exchange rate is the most obvious in high-tech products with the characteristics of Low-DVS, followed by labor-intensive products, and finally resource-intensive products.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：经济全球化背景下我国对外贸易利益分配研究(11BJY113)中期成果之一
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62;F224

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