人民币国际化进程中短期资本流动的新特征及风险防范

发布时间：2018-11-19 08:54

【摘要】：2005年以来,人民币国际化进程逐渐加快,伴随该过程的短期国际资本流动也呈现出许多新特征:国际金融危机、美债危机及欧债危机三重因素相叠加,增加了短期国际资本流动的不稳定性与复杂性;短期国际资本流动风险的增加与人民币升值带来的套利空间扩大趋势相伴生;短期国际资本流动与人民币离岸中心建设进程呈现明显的同步性;人民币渐进国际化道路助推了国际短期资本流动渠道多元化趋势。针对短期国际资本的流动给中国带来的宏观经济波动、外部经济失衡、宏观经济政策失效等风险,文章提出了四点对策:疏堵并举,适度控制短期国际资本流动的规模;理顺市场,从根本上压缩短期国际资本的套利空间,降低投机性国际资本流动的压力;推进收入分配结构、产业结构、区域经济结构调整,降低与分散国际短期资本的流动风险;明确短期国际资本流动风险管理的阶段性任务。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, the process of RMB internationalization has been speeding up gradually, and the short-term international capital flow along with this process has shown many new characteristics: the triple factors of international financial crisis, American debt crisis and European debt crisis. Increased instability and complexity of short-term international capital flows; The increase of risk of short-term international capital flow is accompanied by the expansion of arbitrage space brought about by the appreciation of RMB, and the process of short-term international capital flow and the construction of offshore center of RMB show obvious synchronism. The gradual internationalization of RMB promotes the trend of diversification of international short-term capital flow channels. In view of the risks brought by short-term international capital flow to China, such as macroeconomic fluctuation, external economic imbalance and failure of macroeconomic policy, this paper puts forward four countermeasures: to control the scale of short-term international capital flow; Straighten out the market, fundamentally reduce the arbitrage space of short-term international capital, reduce the pressure of speculative international capital flow; Promote income distribution structure, industrial structure, regional economic structure adjustment, reduce and disperse the risk of international short-term capital flow, and clarify the short-term international capital flow risk management stage task.
【作者单位】：吉林省社会科学院《经济纵横》杂志社;吉林财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC790298) 科技部国家软科学项目(2009GXS5D104) 吉林财经大学博士基金项目(BS200902)
【分类号】：F832.6

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