一个基于金融稳定的黄金储备分析框架——兼论中国黄金储备的适度规模

发布时间：2018-12-24 10:35

【摘要】：基于金融稳定的国际储备合宜规模与结构是目前国内外学界的研究热点,目前普遍认为中国的外汇储备总量已经明显过度,但对其黄金储备规模如何适度却莫衷一是。通过构建一个包含黄金储备、金融不稳定、跨境资本流动以及实体经济变量的系统分析框架,采用理论模型和实证方法探讨影响新兴市场经济体黄金储备的相关因素,继而模拟中国适度黄金储备规模的综合研究结果表明,金融不稳定程度的提高将会直接导致黄金储备占比的显著上升;国际储备对抵御经济金融危机的作用是有限度的,外汇与黄金储备之间不存在简单的替代关系;中国货币当局应在缩减外汇储备规模的同时,逐步增加黄金储备量并将其维持在3000吨左右,继而通过合理优化国际储备结构以确保国内金融稳定。
[Abstract]:The appropriate scale and structure of international reserves based on financial stability is a hot topic in the academic circles at home and abroad. At present, it is generally believed that the total amount of foreign exchange reserves in China has been obviously excessive, but there is no agreement as to how appropriate the scale of its gold reserves is. By constructing a systematic analysis framework including gold reserves, financial instability, cross-border capital flows and real economic variables, this paper uses theoretical models and empirical methods to explore the relevant factors affecting gold reserves in emerging market economies. Then the comprehensive research results of simulating the moderate gold reserve scale in China show that the increase of the degree of financial instability will directly lead to a significant increase in the proportion of gold reserves. The role of international reserves in resisting economic and financial crises is limited, and there is no simple substitute relationship between foreign exchange and gold reserves. China's monetary authorities should reduce the size of their foreign exchange reserves while gradually increasing their gold reserves and maintaining them at about 3000 tons, and then to ensure domestic financial stability by rationally optimizing the international reserve structure.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(70873041) 教育部人文社科规划后期项目(11JHQ032) 2011年上海市教委科研创新项目(11ZS42)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F832.6

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