价格粘性下人民币不同升值模式对中国经济的影响研究
发布时间：2018-12-24 15:12
【摘要】：文章以衰减函数的方式将新凯恩斯学派提出的价格粘性理论引入中国动态可计算一般均衡模型中,使模型更符合经济系统中价格调整规律,并利用模型模拟渐进式升值和快速升值两种不同的人民币升值模式对我国经济的影响。模拟结果表明,在价格粘性的作用下,人民币快速升值将在短期内对我国实体经济产生较大的负面冲击,GDP增速下降最高达1.6个百分点,失业率明显上升,而渐进式升值最高只有0.67个百分点;快速升值能有效抑制我国的通货膨胀和促使我国贸易再平衡,最多使我国CPI增速下降3.6个百分点和贸易顺差占GDP比重下降1.06个百分点,并且在长期内对实体经济的负面效应略小于渐进式升值。因此,在不同的经济形势下应采取不同的人民币升值模式。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the new Keynesian theory of price viscosity is introduced into the Chinese dynamic computable general equilibrium model by means of attenuation function, which makes the model more in line with the law of price adjustment in the economic system. The model is used to simulate the impact of two different RMB appreciation modes, I. e., gradual appreciation and rapid appreciation, on China's economy. The simulation results show that, under the effect of price stickiness, the rapid appreciation of RMB will have a large negative impact on the real economy in the short term. The GDP growth rate will decline by as much as 1.6 percentage points, and the unemployment rate will rise obviously. The highest value of gradual appreciation was 0.67 percentage points. Rapid appreciation can effectively curb inflation and rebalance China's trade, reducing China's CPI growth rate by 3.6 percentage points and trade surplus by 1.06% of GDP at most. And in the long-term, the negative effect on the real economy is slightly smaller than the gradual appreciation. Therefore, in the different economic situation should adopt different RMB appreciation mode.
【作者单位】： 湖南大学经济与贸易学院;湖南大学两型社会创新基地;
【基金】：湖南大学985工程“两型社会创新基地” 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70879039)
【分类号】：F832.6;F124;F224
[Abstract]:In this paper, the new Keynesian theory of price viscosity is introduced into the Chinese dynamic computable general equilibrium model by means of attenuation function, which makes the model more in line with the law of price adjustment in the economic system. The model is used to simulate the impact of two different RMB appreciation modes, I. e., gradual appreciation and rapid appreciation, on China's economy. The simulation results show that, under the effect of price stickiness, the rapid appreciation of RMB will have a large negative impact on the real economy in the short term. The GDP growth rate will decline by as much as 1.6 percentage points, and the unemployment rate will rise obviously. The highest value of gradual appreciation was 0.67 percentage points. Rapid appreciation can effectively curb inflation and rebalance China's trade, reducing China's CPI growth rate by 3.6 percentage points and trade surplus by 1.06% of GDP at most. And in the long-term, the negative effect on the real economy is slightly smaller than the gradual appreciation. Therefore, in the different economic situation should adopt different RMB appreciation mode.
【作者单位】： 湖南大学经济与贸易学院;湖南大学两型社会创新基地;
【基金】：湖南大学985工程“两型社会创新基地” 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70879039)
【分类号】：F832.6;F124;F224
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