资本账户自由化、实际资本控制与汇率制度选择——基于88个发展中国家的经验证据

发布时间：2018-12-25 07:52

【摘要】：本文以88个发展中国家为样本(1974-2010年),考察了资本账户自由化对发展中国家汇率制度选择的影响。研究发现,不同的资本账户自由化测算方法是影响这种关系的重要因素:采用名义测算方法衡量资本账户自由化程度时,资本账户自由化程度越高的发展中国家越可能采用更有弹性的汇率制度;采用事实测算方法衡量资本账户自由化程度时,资本账户自由化程度越高的发展中国家则越可能采用更缺乏弹性的汇率制度。本文随后采用两种方法测度了政府对资本流动的实际控制程度,并以此为基础展开进一步的实证研究。实证结果支持本文提出的理论假说,即实际资本控制程度越高的经济体越可能采用更有弹性的汇率制度,而实际资本控制程度越低的经济体则越不可能提高汇率弹性。
[Abstract]:Taking 88 developing countries as a sample (1974-2010), this paper examines the impact of capital account liberalization on the choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries. The study found that different methods of measuring capital account liberalization are important factors influencing this relationship: when using nominal measurement methods to measure the degree of capital account liberalization, Developing countries with higher levels of capital account liberalization are more likely to adopt more flexible exchange rate regimes; When the degree of capital account liberalization is measured by the method of facts, developing countries with higher degree of capital account liberalization are more likely to adopt a more inflexible exchange rate regime. This paper then uses two methods to measure the extent of the government's actual control of capital flows, and carries out further empirical research on this basis. The empirical results support the theoretical hypothesis proposed in this paper, that is, the higher the actual capital control, the more likely the economy to adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime, while the lower the actual capital control level, the less likely it is to increase the exchange rate elasticity.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学中国金融研究中心;西南财经大学金融学院;湖南师范大学商学院;
【基金】：西南财经大学金融安全协同创新中心项目“资本账户自由化进程中的人民币汇率制度安排与汇率风险防控”(JRXT201306) 国家社科基金青年项目“自主技术创新视角下的中国最优金融结构研究”(13CJL018) 教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划“经济转型背景下稳定物价的货币政策”(IRT13020)的资助
【分类号】：F831.6

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