消费信贷、流动性约束与中国城镇居民消费行为——基于2004～2009年省际面板数据的经验分析

发布时间：2018-12-25 15:46

【摘要】：在一个扩展的C-M消费函数框架内,本文利用2004～2009年中国省际面板数据对消费信贷与我国城镇居民消费行为的关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,城镇居民消费行为对收入变动和信贷条件变动同时呈现出"过度敏感性",但信贷敏感性系数要远远小于收入敏感性系数;当前的消费信贷主要缓解了居民当期流动性约束,促进了耐用品消费的增长,但对非耐用品与服务消费的影响较弱;不同收入的居民对信贷条件变化的敏感程度明显不同,中等收入组和较高收入组居民的信贷敏感性系数最高,高收入组居民次之,而低收入组和较低收入组居民最低。因此,尽管消费信贷对拉动内需具有一定的效果,但仍然受到诸多因素制约,应采取多种措施努力打破消费信贷发展的限制。
[Abstract]:Within the framework of an extended C-M consumption function, this paper makes an empirical test on the relationship between consumer credit and the consumption behavior of urban residents in China by using the data of interprovincial panel from 2004 to 2009. The results show that the consumption behavior of urban residents shows "excessive sensitivity" to the change of income and credit condition, but the coefficient of credit sensitivity is much smaller than the coefficient of income sensitivity. The current consumer credit mainly alleviates the current liquidity constraints of residents and promotes the growth of durable goods consumption, but the impact on non-durable goods and service consumption is weak; The sensitivity of the residents with different income to the change of credit conditions was obviously different. The sensitivity coefficient of the middle income group and the higher income group was the highest, followed by the high income group, while the low income group and the lower income group were the lowest. Therefore, although consumer credit has some effect on stimulating domestic demand, it is still restricted by many factors, and many measures should be taken to break the limit of consumer credit development.
【作者单位】：山东大学消费与发展研究所;山东大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“建立扩大消费需求的长效机制研究”(批准号11JZD016) 山东省自然科学基金重点项目“转轨时期消费需求升级研究”(批准号ZR2009HZ001)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F224;F832.4;F126.1

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