中国东盟贸易开放进程中的金融发展研究

发布时间：2019-01-03 11:01

【摘要】：中国与东盟国家正式对话以来,双边进出口贸易规模不断扩大,双边经贸合作日益紧密,彼此贸易合作伙伴地位不断提升。但中国东盟国家整体金融发展水平较低,而且存在两极分化的现象,推进区域金融合作的进程缓慢。那么,在推进中国东盟贸易开放的进程中,金融发展能否受到影响?受到怎样的影响?这是本文要重点讨论的问题。首先,本文梳理了贸易开放对金融发展的影响原理。其次,本文就中国东盟国家贸易开放和金融发展现状进行分析,先具体分析中国东盟11国的贸易开放度和贸易自由度以及中国东盟双边贸易情况。然后对中国东盟国家的货币深度、资金配置效率、银行中介规模和效率、证券中介规模和效率进行具体分析,并采用主成分分析法,计算出中国东盟部分国家金融发展水平,因子分析结果显示,中国东盟各国金融发展水平两极分化,而且尚未出现趋同的情况。再次,Johansen协整检验和面板回归模型结果显示,中国东盟间贸易开放与金融发展之间存在长期协整关系,贸易开放对金融发展规模和效率均有一定的促进作用,但影响并不显著。为了考察不同金融发展比较优势的影响,模型中加入贸易开放度与人均GDP的交叉项,结果发现交叉项指标很不显著,缺乏解释力。为具体分析中国东盟间贸易开放对各国金融发展规模和发展效率的影响程度的不同,采用变系数模型进行分析,研究发现贸易开放对金融发展规模的推动作用大于对金融发展效率的促进作用,具体来看,与其他国家相比,中国东盟间贸易开放对中国、老挝和越南的金融发展的推动作用最大。最后,在实证结论的基础上提出了完善贸易开放对金融发展影响渠道的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the formal dialogue between China and ASEAN countries, the scale of bilateral import and export trade has been continuously expanded, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has become increasingly close, and the status of trade partners between China and ASEAN has been continuously upgraded. However, the overall level of financial development in ASEAN countries is low, and the phenomenon of polarization exists, and the process of promoting regional financial cooperation is slow. So, can the financial development be affected in the process of promoting the opening of trade between China and ASEAN? How are they affected? This is an important issue to be discussed in this paper. First, this article combs the trade opening to the financial development influence principle. Secondly, this paper analyzes the current situation of trade openness and financial development of China-ASEAN countries, and analyzes the trade openness and degree of freedom of China-ASEAN 11 countries and the bilateral trade situation of China-ASEAN. Then the paper analyzes the depth of currency, the efficiency of capital allocation, the scale and efficiency of bank intermediation, the scale and efficiency of securities intermediation, and calculates the financial development level of some ASEAN countries by principal component analysis. The results of factor analysis show that the financial development level of ASEAN countries is polarized and there is no convergence. Thirdly, the results of Johansen cointegration test and panel regression model show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between China-ASEAN trade opening and financial development, and trade liberalization has a certain role in promoting the scale and efficiency of financial development, but the impact is not significant. In order to investigate the influence of comparative advantage of different financial development, the cross-terms of trade openness and per capita GDP are added to the model. The results show that the cross-terms are not significant and lack of explanatory power. In order to analyze the differences in the influence of the opening of trade between China and ASEAN on the scale and efficiency of financial development, the variable coefficient model is used to analyze. It is found that trade opening plays a greater role in promoting the scale of financial development than in promoting the efficiency of financial development. In particular, compared with other countries, the trade opening between China and ASEAN is of great importance to China. Laos and Vietnam are the biggest drivers of financial development. Finally, on the basis of empirical conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the channels of trade opening to financial development.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F832

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