贸易、汇率与经济增长——对中国发展战略的理性思考

发布时间：2019-03-21 11:42

【摘要】：近年来,随着中国国际储备和对外贸易摩擦的增加,国内学术界和政府管理部门中反对贸易扩张的呼声此起彼伏。本文从理论与历史的角度分析与回顾了贸易对于一国经济增长的绝对重要性,贸易不仅可以促进分工、冲销报酬递减效应、促进城市化发展,而且还决定了一国在世界经济中的地位及其兴衰。历史的经验还告诉我们,促进贸易发展最为重要的方法是选择一个有竞争力的、能够保持汇率稳定的固定汇率制度。浮动汇率可以用来平衡国际收支,但是却不能用来平衡贸易差额,因为在大多数情况下,贸易差额是由结构性问题造成的。本文的研究表明,贸易是经济增长的原因,有竞争力的固定汇率是贸易得以发展的基本条件。放弃对外贸易,试图用刺激内需的方法来促进经济增长是不可行的,因为一个国家的内部需求只是经济增长的结果,而不是经济增长的原因。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of China's international reserves and foreign trade frictions, the voices of domestic academia and government administration against trade expansion have been one after another. This paper analyzes and reviews the absolute importance of trade to a country's economic growth from the perspective of theory and history. Trade can not only promote the division of labor, eliminate the effect of diminishing returns, and promote the development of urbanization. It also determines a country's position in the world economy and its rise and fall. Historical experience also tells us that the most important way to promote trade is to choose a competitive, stable exchange rate regime. Floating exchange rates can be used to balance the balance of payments, but not to balance the trade balance, which in most cases is caused by structural problems. The research in this paper shows that trade is the cause of economic growth and competitive fixed exchange rate is the basic condition for the development of trade. It is not feasible to give up foreign trade and try to boost economic growth by stimulating domestic demand, because a country's internal demand is only the result of economic growth, not the cause of economic growth.
【作者单位】：复旦大学世界经济研究所;
【基金】：国家教育部211工程第三期项目“经济起飞中后期中国对外贸易与投资的发展战略研究”(项目批准号:2011SHKXZD002)的资助
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6;F124

【共引文献】