不确定条件下我国货币政策工具规则的稳健性比较研究

发布时间：2019-03-31 00:08

【摘要】：随着计算机技术和现代统计理论的发展,DSGE模型已经成为当代宏观经济计量分析的一个重要工具,被广泛的应用于宏观经济分析的各个方面。本文在充分借鉴和吸纳国内外学者在相关领域已有研究成果的基础之上,利用开放经济条件下的新凯恩斯DSGE模型分析框架,对不确定性条件下我国货币政策工具规则的稳健性进行了比较。首先,本文对DSGE模型的构造思路和处理方法进行了简单的介绍,其次,在借鉴国外学者相关研究成果的基础上,构造了一个适合我国国情的开放经济新凯恩斯DSGE模型。然后将不确定性因素引入开放经济下的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线、IS曲线、资产价格决定方程、汇率决定方程和国际资本流动行为方程中,比较分析了不确定性冲击的最坏情况、忽略不确定性存在和介于二者之间的近似状态三种情况下,国际大宗商品价格、国外产出缺口和货币政策规则对国内通货膨胀和产出的冲击状况。结果表明,充分考虑到不确定性的冲击能减轻相关因素对国内通货膨胀和产出的冲击；在稳健性前提下,数量型和价格型货币政策工具规则对治理通货膨胀问题的效果基本相同,但对于解决经济增长问题,数量型货币政策规则将优于价格型规则。
[Abstract]:With the development of computer technology and modern statistical theory, DSGE model has become an important tool of contemporary macro-economic econometric analysis, and has been widely used in all aspects of macro-economic analysis. Based on the existing research results of domestic and foreign scholars in related fields, this paper makes use of the analytical framework of New Keynesian DSGE model under the condition of open economy. This paper compares the robustness of China's monetary policy instrument rules under uncertain conditions. Firstly, this paper gives a brief introduction to the construction and treatment of the DSGE model. Secondly, on the basis of the relevant research results of foreign scholars, a new Keynesian DSGE model of open economy is constructed, which is suitable for the national conditions of our country. Then the uncertainty factors are introduced into the New Keynesian Phillips curve, IS curve, asset price determination equation, exchange rate determination equation and international capital flow behavior equation under the open economy, and the worst situation of uncertainty shock is compared and analyzed. Ignoring the existence of uncertainty and the approximate state between the two, the impact of international commodity prices, foreign output gaps and monetary policy rules on domestic inflation and output is ignored. The results show that shocks with full consideration of uncertainty can reduce the impact of related factors on domestic inflation and output; On the premise of conservatism, quantitative monetary policy rules and price-based monetary policy tools have the same effect on controlling inflation, but quantitative monetary policy rules will be superior to price-based rules in solving the problem of economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0

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