民间融资与非法集资关联度实证研究
发布时间：2019-06-12 03:41
【摘要】：在缺乏监管主体和法律适用性不强等背景下,民间融资行为极易演变为非法集资活动,而对非法集资行为的监测和预警则非常困难,仅靠事后的被动应对很难对非法集资进行有效的防范和控制。因此亟须研究民间融资的活跃程度与非法集资的关联性,从而通过对民间融资的监测达到对非法集资犯罪进行预警的目的。在对我国民间融资和非法集资的基本情况进行梳理分析的基础上,采用经济金融相关系数法对我国各省份民间融资的规模进行测算。然后分别采用面板格兰杰因果检验、面板协整检验和PVAR模型检验民间融资规模和利率与非法集资立案数量的关联性。研究结果表明:(1)民间融资规模与非法集资之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;(2)民间融资利率是非法集资的格兰杰原因,民间融资规模对非法集资存在显著的正向冲击。
[Abstract]:Under the background of lack of regulatory subject and weak applicability of law, private financing behavior is easy to evolve into illegal fund-raising activities, while the monitoring and early warning of illegal fund-raising behavior is very difficult, and it is difficult to effectively prevent and control illegal fund-raising by passive response only after the event. Therefore, it is urgent to study the relationship between the activity of private financing and illegal fund-raising, so as to achieve the purpose of early warning of illegal fund-raising crime through the monitoring of private financing. On the basis of combing and analyzing the basic situation of private financing and illegal fund-raising in China, the scale of private financing in various provinces of China is calculated by using the method of economic and financial correlation coefficient. Then panel Granger causality test, panel cointegration test and PVAR model are used to test the correlation between private financing scale and interest rate and the number of illegal fund raising cases. The results show that: (1) there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between the scale of private financing and illegal financing; (2) the interest rate of private financing is the Granger cause of illegal financing, and the scale of private financing has a significant positive impact on illegal financing.
【作者单位】： 中国人民银行郑州中心支行;中国人民银行上街区支行;
【分类号】：F832.4
，
本文编号：2497704
[Abstract]:Under the background of lack of regulatory subject and weak applicability of law, private financing behavior is easy to evolve into illegal fund-raising activities, while the monitoring and early warning of illegal fund-raising behavior is very difficult, and it is difficult to effectively prevent and control illegal fund-raising by passive response only after the event. Therefore, it is urgent to study the relationship between the activity of private financing and illegal fund-raising, so as to achieve the purpose of early warning of illegal fund-raising crime through the monitoring of private financing. On the basis of combing and analyzing the basic situation of private financing and illegal fund-raising in China, the scale of private financing in various provinces of China is calculated by using the method of economic and financial correlation coefficient. Then panel Granger causality test, panel cointegration test and PVAR model are used to test the correlation between private financing scale and interest rate and the number of illegal fund raising cases. The results show that: (1) there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between the scale of private financing and illegal financing; (2) the interest rate of private financing is the Granger cause of illegal financing, and the scale of private financing has a significant positive impact on illegal financing.
【作者单位】： 中国人民银行郑州中心支行;中国人民银行上街区支行;
【分类号】：F832.4
，
本文编号：2497704
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