住房价格、消费与中国货币政策最优选择:基于异质性房价预期的视角

发布时间：2019-06-27 18:14

【摘要】：在异质性房价预期和流动性约束条件下,本文构建了包括家庭消费决策、企业生产决策以及中央银行货币政策决策的理论模型。在此基础上,本文采用混合的RBC-VAR方法和1998年1季度至2010年3季度的数据模拟分析了住房价格、消费和货币政策选择之间的关系。结果表明:预期房价上涨的家庭越多,住房价格波动对消费波动的影响越大;贷款价值比越高,住房价格波动对消费波动的放大效应越强,但经验证据并没有支持这种放大效应;盯住住房价格的货币政策获益很少,其在减少产出波动的同时增加了通货膨胀波动。因此,中国人民银行应遏制房价偏离均衡的上涨,尤其是房价上涨预期,但货币政策不宜盯住住房价格。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of heterogeneous house price expectation and liquidity constraint, this paper constructs a theoretical model including household consumption decision, enterprise production decision and central bank monetary policy decision. On this basis, this paper uses the mixed RBC-VAR method and the data from the first quarter of 1998 to the third quarter of 2010 to simulate the relationship between housing price, consumption and monetary policy choice. The results show that the more households expect the house price to rise, the greater the influence of housing price fluctuation on consumption fluctuation; the higher the loan value ratio, the stronger the magnification effect of housing price fluctuation on consumption fluctuation, but the empirical evidence does not support this amplification effect. The monetary policy pegged to housing price has little benefit, which not only reduces the output fluctuation, but also increases the inflation fluctuation. Therefore, the people's Bank of China should curb the deviation of house prices from equilibrium rising, especially the expectation of rising house prices, but monetary policy should not be pegged to housing prices.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“住房价格波动、消费与中国最优货币政策选择:基于异质性预期视角”(编号:11YJA790169)的资助武汉大学自主科研项目“资产替代与中国货币需求函数的非线性特征”的研究成果 “中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金”(编号:105274906)的资助
【分类号】：F293.3;F126.1;F822.0;F224

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