金融发展、股票市场与经济增长：比较研究

发布时间：2021-06-22 09:27

　　多年来经济学家认为,运作良好、整体合一的银行业以及股票市场会对经济增长起到积极、促进的作用。金融中介机构的发展,可以通过各种传递渠道,比如储蓄动员和资本的有效配置,对经济增长产生正面的影响。根据过去三十年间所获得的资本市场数据和新形成的理论文献显示,运作良好的股票市场可以通过改变技术进步的水平、储蓄利率和经济的整体效率而促进长期的经济增长。然而,有一种相反的观点认为,金融中介机构尤其是资本市场的发展,会对经济增长产生不利影响,这一点在发展中国家尤为明显。本研究探讨银行业、股票市场发展和经济增长之间的因果及协整关系。它从一个全面的理论和实证文献角度出发,建立起这一宏观关系框架。我们对四个国家进行实证分析,分别是：克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、斯洛文尼亚和中国,这些国家在规模、地理位置和经济发展阶段方面都各异,我们对其银行业、股票与增长之间的关系进行了观察与比较。这项研究的目的在于结合重点遗漏变量条件,在不同的向量自回归（VAR）环境中,通过检验因果关系,对经济增长过程中的银行业和股票市场发展进行实证分析。如Coporal e和Pitis在1997年时指出的,在分析银行业发展与经济增长之间的因果关系... 

【文章来源】：首都经济贸易大学北京市

【文章页数】：215 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
ABSTRACT
摘要
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
CHAPTER 1:INTRODUCTION
    1.1. INTRODUCTION
    1.2. AIM, OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH QUES
    1.3. INNOVATION POINTS
    1.4. RESEARCH METHODS
    1.5. OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY
CHAPTER 2:LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1. ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORIES
        2.1.1. Neoclassical Growth Model
        2.1.2. Endogenous Growth Model
    2.2. CREDIT MARKETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
        2.2.1. Relation between capital allocation and productivity
        2.2.2. Saving rates and financial development
    2.3. STOCK MARKETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
    2.4. BANKS, STOCK MARKETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
    2.5. REVIEW OF THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL STUDIES FOR COUNTRIES OFCROATIA, SERBIA, SLOVENIA AND CHINA
        2.5.1. Croatia
        2.5.2. Serbia
        2.5.3. Slovenia
        2.5.4. China
CHAPTER 3:DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL THEORETICAL SPECIFICATION
    3.1. DATA AND DEFINING VARIABLES
    3.2. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
    3.3. SUMMARY STATISTICS OF DATA
        3.3.1. Croatia
        3.3.2. Serbia
        3.3.3. Slovenia
        3.3.4. China
    3.4. DEPENDENT VARIABLES
        3.4.1. Croatia
        3.4.2. Serbia
        3.4.3. Slovenia
        3.4.4. China
    3.5. ESTIMATION METHODS
        3.5.1. Unit Root Test
        3.5.2. Vector Autoregression (VAR)
        3.5.3. Johansen Co-integration Test
        3.5.4. Causality Test
        3.5.5. Impulse Response Function (IRF)
CHAPTER 4:NEXUS BETWEEN BANKS, STOCK MARKETS AND ECONOMICGROWTH:EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
    4.1. INTRODUCTION
    4.2. CROATIA
        4.2.1. Unit Root Test
        4.2.2. Lag Selection
        4.2.3. Banking-economic growth bivariate VAR model
        4.2.4. Stock market-economic growth bivariate VAR model
        4.2.5. Banking-stock market-growth trivariate VAR model
        4.2.6. Johansen Co-integration
        4.2.7. Impulse Response Function(IRF)
    4.3. SERBIA
        4.3.1. Unit Root Tests
        4.3.2. Lag Selection
        4.3.3. Banking-economic growth bivariate VAR model
        4.3.4. Johansen Co-integration
        4.3.5. Impulse Response Function(IRF)
    4.4. SLOVENIA
        4.4.1. Unit Root Tests
        4.4.2. Lag Selection
        4.4.3. Banking-economic growth bivariate VAR model
        4.4.4. Stock market-economic growth bivariate VAR model
        4.4.5. Banking-stock market-economic growth trivariate VAR model
        4.4.6. Johansen Co-integration
        4.4.7. Impulse Response Function(IRF)
    4.5. CHINA
        4.5.1. Unit Root Tests
        4.5.2. Lag Selection
        4.5.3. Banking-economic growth bivariate VAR model
        4.5.4. Stock market-economic growth bivariate VAR model
        4.5.5. Banking-stock market-economic growth trivariate VAR model
        4.5.6. Johansen Co-integration
        4.5.7. Impulse Response Function(IRF)
CHAPTER 5:COMPARISON OF EMPIRICAL RESULTS
    5.1. BIVARIATE BANKING-GROWTH VAR MODELS
    5.2. BIVARIATE STOCK-GROWTH VAR MODELS
    5.3. TRIVARIATE BANKS-STOCK-GROWTH VAR MODELS
    5.4. IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION (IRF)
CHAPTER 6:CONCLUSION
BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX
    Appendix 1:Croatia VAR models
    Appendix 2:Serbia VAR models
    Appendix 3:Slovenia VAR models
    Appendix 4:China VAR models
    Appendix 5:Impulse Response Function (IRF)



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