中国与东盟双边贸易对双边冲突削减作用的研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 22:04

本文关键词：中国与东盟双边贸易对双边冲突削减作用的研究　出处：《浙江工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当今世界,国与国之间的贸易联系日益频繁和紧密,伴随而来的是频频发生的国际冲突,国际经济与国际政治之间的相互渗透作用日益加深,国际贸易对国际冲突的影响作用亦愈加深厚。中国与东盟国家同属亚洲国家,地理位置毗邻,自2010年中国-东盟自由贸易区正式成立以来,中国与东盟之间的贸易关系日益紧密,双边贸易量不断创新高。然而,由于历史,地理等因素的存在,中国与东盟之间一直存在着一系列的纠纷和冲突问题。随着“中国威胁论”在世界范围内的散播,如何和周边国家妥当处理和平与发展的问题,营造一个良好的周边环境,并在发展双边经贸联系的同时将冲突降至最低,是中国面临的关键问题所在。文章采用理论研究,理论模型和实证模型研究的方法,从七个章节逐步深入论证了中国与东盟双边贸易对双边冲突的削减作用。首先文章从中国政策“21世纪海上丝绸之路”战略大背景入手,论述中国和东盟双边贸易的发展现状和契机,以及当前双边面临的冲突问题,并对国内外相关国际贸易影响国际冲突的理论、模型和实证三个方面的研究现状进行综述,通过分析国际贸易对国际冲突的两国模型和三国模型,得出国际贸易能在一定程度上削减国际冲突的结论。文章的理论机理部分分析了国际贸易对国际冲突的总效应,分别从国际贸易促进国际冲突的原因和国际贸易削减国际冲突的因素进行论述。在实证模型中,采用中国与东盟国家之间的双边贸易数据做联立方程模型,使用COW 4.0版本中的冲突与合作数据以及世界银行中中国与东盟双边贸易的数据,验证中国与东盟之间贸易对双边冲突的削减作用。通过研究发现中国与东盟之间贸易紧密程度和贸易依赖程度不断加深的同时,受到国际因素和双边历史发展条件的影响,中国与东盟国家之间的冲突问题一直都存在。文章通过实证研究得出1990年至2012年期间,中国与东盟之间的双边贸易对双边冲突具有削减作用。通过研究双边贸易对双边冲突的净效应,利用有效的经济手段来缓解双边的冲突,从而进一步推动中国与东盟的双边经济合作,实现双边经济平稳快速发展,对于中国而言有着重要的理论和现实意义。针对中国与东盟双边贸易和冲突的现状,文章从加强贸易开放程度以推进贸易自由化发展,加快基础设施建设以优化贸易便利条件和加强次区域间合作以推动产业内贸易发展三个方面对中国改善与东盟的经贸和政治关系提出了政策性建议。
[Abstract]:In today's world, the trade links between countries are becoming more frequent and close. The frequent international conflicts are accompanied by the increasing penetration of international economy and international politics, and the impact of international trade on international conflicts is deeper. China and ASEAN countries belong to Asian countries and their geographical location is adjacent. Since the establishment of China ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010, trade relations between China and ASEAN have been increasingly close, and bilateral trade volume has been continuously innovating. However, due to the existence of historical, geographical and other factors, there has been a series of disputes and conflicts between China and ASEAN. With the spread of "China Threat Theory" in the world, how to build a good surrounding environment and deal with the problems of peace and development with the neighboring countries, and to minimize the conflict while developing bilateral economic and trade ties, is the key problem facing China. Based on theoretical research, theoretical model and empirical model research, the article gradually demonstrates the role of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN in reducing bilateral conflicts from seven chapters. Firstly, from the policy Chinese twenty-first Century "maritime Silk Road" strategic background, discusses the development status and opportunity Chinese and bilateral trade, and the current bilateral conflict problem, and a summary of current situation of domestic and foreign related international trade influence three aspects of international conflict theory, model and empirical analysis, through the the two models and three models of international trade of international conflicts, the international trade can reduce international conflicts to a certain extent the conclusion. The theoretical mechanism of the article partly analyzes the total effect of international trade on international conflicts, and discusses the reasons for international trade to promote international conflicts, and the factors that reduce international conflicts in international trade. In the empirical model, using bilateral trade data between China and ASEAN countries do simultaneous equation model, using COW 4 version of the conflict and cooperation between the data and the world bank in China ASEAN bilateral trade data, verify the trade between ASEAN Chinese cut effect on bilateral conflict. Through research, it is found that trade tightness and trade dependence between China and ASEAN are deepening. Meanwhile, the conflict between China and ASEAN countries is always affected by international factors and bilateral historical development conditions. Through an empirical study, the paper draws a conclusion that bilateral trade between China and ASEAN has a reduction in bilateral conflicts between 1990 and 2012. The net effect of bilateral trade on bilateral conflict, the use of effective economic means to alleviate bilateral conflicts, so as to further promote bilateral economic cooperation with ASEAN China, realize bilateral economic steady and rapid development, has important theoretical and practical significance for the Chinese concerned. According to the present situation of bilateral trade and China conflict with ASEAN, in order to strengthen the trade openness in order to promote the development of free trade, accelerate infrastructure construction in order to optimize the conditions of trade facilitation and strengthen cooperation between the region to promote the development of intra industry trade in three aspects of policy recommendations and the ASEAN Economic and political relations to improve Chinese.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7

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