东亚生产网络背景下中日韩最终需求的产出诱发效应

发布时间：2017-12-30 17:37

本文关键词：东亚生产网络背景下中日韩最终需求的产出诱发效应　出处：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着东亚生产网络的深入发展,中日韩FTA的建立成为东北亚区域经济合作的焦点。自2012年11月至2014年,中日韩自贸区已经进行了五轮谈判,在2015年1月16日,第六轮谈判首席谈判代表会议在日本东京举行,三国将就货物贸易降税模式、服务贸易和投资开放方式及协定范围与领域等议题进行磋商。本文结合东亚生产网络的发展现状,利用欧盟委员会开发的WIOD数据库,分析了东亚生产网络中各经济体的需求结构,构造了基于国际区域间投入产出模型的最终需求生产诱发系数,综合比较和分析了1995-2011年间中日韩最终需求诱发效应的动态变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:首先,整体而言,东亚经济体中各国的进口中间需求占中间需求的比重大于进口最终需求占最终需求的比重。这表明中间品贸易在国别贸易中的地位越来越重要,垂直专业化模式是东亚生产网络重要的分工模式。其次,中国在东亚生产网络中扮演着越来越重要的角色,成为东亚各国最终产品和中间产品的最大供给国,美国、日本和欧盟的地位在逐渐削弱。特别是对韩国和日本而言,中国是日本和韩国最大的进口中间需求和最终需求来源国。最后,中日韩三国最终需求的产出直接诱发系数相差不大,而间接诱发系数存在较大的差别,而间接诱发系数的大小与两国间的中间品贸易规模息息相关。通过对间接诱发系数分解后发现:在东亚生产网络下,在中韩贸易中,中国通过消耗其他东亚国家的最终品对韩国产出的间接诱发系数较大,而韩国通过消耗其他东亚国家的最终品对中国产出的间接诱发系数也不容小视;在中日贸易中,中国通过消耗其他东亚国家的最终品对日本产出的间接诱发系数最大,而日本通过消费韩国的最终产品对中国产出的间接诱发系数最大;在日韩贸易中,日本通过消费中国最终品对韩国产出的间接诱发系数最大,韩国则通过消耗其他东亚国家的最终产品对日本产出的间接诱发系数最大。在整个东亚生产网络中,若中日韩达成了自由贸易协定,不仅会产生直接贸易政策效果,另一方面会因整个东亚生产网络的重构,形成贸易流量及其背后的供给变化的间接影响,对三国的经济发展都是极其有利的。
[Abstract]:With the further development of East Asian production network, the establishment of FTA between China, Japan and South Korea has become the focus of regional economic cooperation in Northeast Asia. From November 2012 to 2014, five rounds of negotiations have been conducted between China, Japan and Korea. On January 16th 2015, the 6th round of chief negotiators' meeting was held in Tokyo, Japan, where the three countries will cut taxes on trade in goods. This paper makes use of the WIOD database developed by the European Commission in the light of the current development of the East Asian production network. This paper analyzes the demand structure of each economy in the East Asian production network, and constructs the final demand production evoked coefficient based on the international inter-regional input-output model. This paper comprehensively compares and analyzes the dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of the final demand-induced effect between China, Japan and South Korea from 1995 to 2011. The results show that: first, overall. The proportion of import intermediate demand to intermediate demand in East Asian economies is larger than the proportion of import final demand to final demand, which indicates that intermediate goods trade plays an increasingly important role in national trade. Vertical specialization is an important division of labor in East Asian production network. Secondly, China plays a more and more important role in East Asia production network, becoming the largest supplier of final products and intermediate products in East Asian countries. The status of the United States, Japan and the European Union is gradually weakening. For South Korea and Japan in particular, China is the largest source of intermediate and final import demand for Japan and South Korea. The output direct evoked coefficient of the final demand of China, Japan and South Korea is not different, but the indirect inductive coefficient is quite different. The magnitude of the indirect evoked coefficient is closely related to the scale of the intermediate trade between the two countries. Through the decomposition of the indirect evoked coefficient, it is found that under the East Asian production network, in the trade between China and South Korea. By consuming the final products of other East Asian countries, China has a larger indirect inducement coefficient to Korea's output, and Korea's indirect inductive coefficient of Chinese output by consuming other East Asian countries' final products should not be underestimated. In Sino-Japanese trade, China has the biggest indirect inducement coefficient to Japanese output by consuming the final products of other East Asian countries, while Japan has the biggest indirect inducement coefficient to Chinese output through consuming Korea's final products. In the trade between Japan and South Korea, Japan has the largest indirect inducement coefficient to Korea's output through the consumption of Chinese final products. South Korea, by consuming the final products of other East Asian countries, has the largest indirect inducement coefficient to Japan's output. In the whole East Asian production network, China, Japan and South Korea have reached a free trade agreement. It will not only produce direct trade policy effect, on the other hand, because of the reconstruction of the whole East Asian production network, it will form the indirect influence of the trade flow and the change of supply behind it, which is extremely beneficial to the economic development of the three countries.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F742

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