服务业上市公司财务风险预警模型研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 15:40

本文关键词：服务业上市公司财务风险预警模型研究　出处：《哈尔滨理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：良好的财务状况预示着企业有较好的发展潜力和较大的利润空间,不利的财务状况易导致企业陷入破产、重组的困境中难以自拔。财务状况恶化的风险是客观存在的,不随个人主观意志的改变而改变,但财务风险的发生伴随着各种征兆,可通过预警机制事前判别。服务业上市公司近年来发展迅猛,在国民经济中的比重持续上升,其财务风险也时有发生。尽管诸多财务风险预警方法应运而生,但各有利弊,适用条件严格。本文旨在研究适用于服务业上市公司的财务风险预警方法,引导服务业上市公司对财务风险迅速做出判断,为服务业规模扩大和良性发展提供参考。本文主要探究了统计学中的聚类分析法及从物理学中引入的费米分布函数法在我国服务业上市公司财务风险预警中的应用,并将所取得的研究结果与预警领域评价较高的Logistic回归法进行了对比,最终指出了所探究方法的研究价值和研究局限。首先,通过梳理国内外学者研究成果、阐述财务风险预警相关概念和选取所需的样本、指标等为财务风险预警方法的应用奠定了基础。其次,本文重点探讨了聚类分析法和费米分布函数法。初始因子载荷矩阵优化后得到的初始因子载荷矩阵拟合法和因子分析法获取的因子指标分别进行聚类分析,发现前者的预警效果更佳,同时说明不同的指标选取方法对预警效果会产生显著影响;引入物理学中的费米分布函数并赋予经济学含义后,发现费米分布函数法不但可以对企业财务风险进行预警,而且预警效果比较理想。研究还发现将通过因子分析法和相关性分析法获取的指标应用在费米分布函数法中进行预警,后者效果更好。最后,本文利用研究所取得的成果对我国服务业上市公司进行了实证检验,同时为了深入了解该聚类分析法及费米分布函数法与同类方法之间的预警效果异同,本文选择具有代表性的Logistic回归法进行了预警效果的比较分析,并在结论部分简述了研究成果和不足之处。
[Abstract]:Good financial situation indicates that the enterprise has better development potential and larger profit space, and the unfavorable financial situation can easily lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise. The risk of financial situation deterioration exists objectively and does not change with the change of personal subjective will, but the occurrence of financial risk is accompanied by various signs. The listed companies in the service industry have developed rapidly in recent years, their proportion in the national economy has continued to rise, and their financial risks have occurred from time to time, although a lot of financial risk warning methods came into being. However, there are advantages and disadvantages, and the applicable conditions are strict. The purpose of this paper is to study the early warning method of financial risk for the listed companies in the service industry, and to guide the listed companies in the service industry to make a quick judgment on the financial risks. This paper mainly discusses the cluster analysis method in statistics and the application of Fermi distribution function method introduced from physics in financial risk early warning of listed companies in service industry in China. Yes. The research results are compared with the Logistic regression method which is highly evaluated in the field of early warning. Finally, the research value and limitations of the research method are pointed out. First of all. Through combing the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper expounds the related concepts of financial risk early warning and the selection of needed samples, indicators and so on, which lays a foundation for the application of financial risk early warning method. Secondly. This paper focuses on the clustering analysis and Fermi distribution function method. The initial factor load matrix fitting method and the factor analysis method obtained after the initial factor load matrix optimization are used to cluster analysis. It is found that the early warning effect of the former is better, and it also shows that different index selection methods have a significant impact on the early warning effect. After introducing the Fermi distribution function in physics and giving the meaning of economics, it is found that the Fermi distribution function method can not only warn the financial risk of enterprises. And the early warning effect is relatively ideal. The study also found that the index obtained by factor analysis and correlation analysis is applied to the Fermi distribution function method, the latter effect is better. Finally. In order to understand the similarities and differences between the cluster analysis method and Fermi distribution function method and the similar methods, this paper makes an empirical test on the listed companies in the service industry of our country by using the results obtained by the research. In this paper, the representative Logistic regression method is chosen to compare and analyze the early warning effect, and in the conclusion part, the research results and shortcomings are briefly described.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F715.5;F832.51

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