中国对美国农产品进口贸易持续时间分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 10:16

本文关键词：中国对美国农产品进口贸易持续时间分析　出处：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：贸易关系的持续时间是研究贸易增长之谜的新兴议题之一,但我国对贸易持续性的研究起步较晚,且主要研究对象为中国进出口贸易及农产品出口贸易。本文基于UN-COMTRADE数据库中1996-2013年HS6分位产品水平数据,采用生存分析法对中国对美国农产品进口贸易关系的持续时间进行实证分析。首先,采用乘积极限法估计中国对美国农产品进口贸易关系的生存时间,结果显示生存时间的均值仅为3.5年,中位值为2年,表明从微观产品层面看,中国对美国农产品进口贸易关系是不稳定的,新贸易关系的建立伴随着原有贸易关系的失败。贸易关系危险率的负时间依存性表明维护现有贸易关系比开发新贸易关系更重要。其次,采用乘积极限法和离散时间生存分析模型分析贸易关系持续时间的影响因素。一方面,基于乘积极限法,通过图形描述各因素对贸易关系持续时间的影响,发现多贸易片段对贸易持续时间有负影响,初始贸易额对贸易持续时间有正影响。另一方面,通过离散时间生存分析模型分析影响贸易持续时间危险率的各因素,发现多片段的贸易关系的危险率显著高于只有一个片段的贸易关系,不同种类农产品的危险率存在显著差异,第四类农产品的危险率最低。最后,采用HS4分位产品层面的数据做稳健性检验,结果表明,除了产品分类的估计结果稍有差异外,HS6分位和HS4分位数据的结论是一致的。
[Abstract]:The duration of the trade relationship is one of the emerging issues of trade growth puzzle, but China's research on persistent trade started late, and the main object of study for China import and export trade and export trade of agricultural products. In this paper, the UN-COMTRADE database in 1996-2013 HS6 product level data based on the empirical analysis of China duration on the relationship between import trade of agricultural products in the United States using survival analysis method. Firstly, the estimated survival time on the relationship between import trade of agricultural products in the United States of Chinese using the product limit method, the results show the mean survival time of only 3.5 years, median 2 years shows that, from the micro perspective of product, China is unstable on the relationship the United States imports of agricultural products, the establishment of new trade relations with the original trade relationship failure. The negative time trade relations risk dependence shows that the maintenance of existing trade relations More important than the development of new trade relations. Secondly, using the product limit method and discrete time survival analysis model to analyze factors affecting trade relationship duration. On the one hand, the product limit method based on the graphical description of factors affecting the duration of trade relations, found to have a negative influence on trade trade segment duration, there is the influence of initial trade on trade duration. On the other hand, through the discrete time survival analysis model to analyze the influencing factors of trade duration risk, found that the risk of trade relations between the multi fragment rate is significantly higher than only a fragment of the trade relationship, there are significant differences in the risk of different types of agricultural products, fourth types of risk the lowest rate of agricultural products. Finally, using HS4 product level data do robustness test results show that, in addition to estimate product classification results slightly. Therefore, HS6 The conclusion of the bit and HS4 division data is consistent.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.61;F757.12

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