A出口企业汇率风险规避模式研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 11:18

本文关键词：A出口企业汇率风险规避模式研究　出处：《电子科技大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪70年代初,随着布雷顿森林体系的崩溃瓦解,世界上大部分国家开始实行浮动汇率制度,各国之间货币比价变动频繁,汇率风险由此开始产生并逐步扩大。2015年7月21日,中国人民银行宣布废除原来人民币盯住单一美元的货币政策,改为实行以市场供求关系为基础,参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,我国的人民币汇率改革重新启动,尤其是近年来人民币汇率走势呈现双向波动,波幅扩大的新常态,我国出口企业面临汇率风险带来的巨大影响和冲击,寻找适合的汇率风险规避模式是众多出口企业的迫切需求。本文首先对汇率风险、汇率风险规避相关理论概念进行阐述。通过对A出口企业面临的优势、劣势、机会、威胁现状,汇率风险对A出口企业的影响以及人民币汇率走势分析,阐明汇率风险规避对于A出口企业的必要性、重要性和紧迫性。通过总结相关文献研究,识别归纳出经营成本变化、汇率变化、国际市场需求变化等影响出口企业生产经营主要因素,进而参考风险影响主要因素设计调查问卷和内部访谈提纲,运用模糊综合评价法对A出口企业面临的风险进行识别与评价分析,得出汇率风险是A出口企业现阶段面临最大风险的结论,并对汇率风险按影响程度识别排序,提出汇率风险控制的原则、对策及建议。在此基础上利用相关理论,结合企业实际情况以及人民币汇率走势特点,有针对性提出A出口企业汇率风险控制方法:贸易融资、金融衍生工具、调整外币资产与外币负债结构、调整经营策略、国际结算工具等,并对各规避方法原理、如何运用、优势及局限进行分析阐述,提出A出口企业应结合自身业务需求和风险管理目标,运用系统性思维指导日常汇率风险管理工作,综合考虑,扬长避短,灵活选择运营各种汇率风险控制策略和工具组合。最后通过A出口企业实际运用各汇率风险控制方法所取得的效果验证相关理论、方法的可行性和有效性,对A出口企业汇率风险管控的思路和方法进行总结。
[Abstract]:In 1970s, with the collapse of Bretton Woods system, most countries began to implement floating exchange rate system. In July 21st 2015, the people's Bank of China announced the abolition of the currency policy of pegging the renminbi to the single dollar, and instead implemented a market based on supply and demand. Reference to a basket of currencies to adjust, there is a managed floating exchange rate system, China's RMB exchange rate reform has been restarted, especially in recent years the RMB exchange rate trends show two-way fluctuations, volatility expansion of the new normal. China's export enterprises are faced with the huge impact and impact of exchange rate risk. It is an urgent need for many export enterprises to find a suitable exchange rate risk avoidance model. Firstly, this paper focuses on exchange rate risk. Through the analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, the impact of exchange rate risk on A export enterprises and the trend of RMB exchange rate. Expound the necessity, importance and urgency of exchange rate risk aversion to A export enterprise. Through summarizing the relevant literature research, identify and sum up the change of operating cost and exchange rate. International market demand changes and other major factors affecting the production and operation of export enterprises, and then reference to the main factors affecting risk design questionnaire and internal interview outline. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to identify and evaluate the risks faced by A export enterprises, and it is concluded that exchange rate risk is the biggest risk faced by A export enterprises at the present stage. And the exchange rate risk according to the degree of influence to identify the order, put forward the exchange rate risk control principles, countermeasures and suggestions. On the basis of the use of relevant theories, combined with the actual situation of enterprises and the characteristics of RMB exchange rate trend. This paper puts forward the exchange rate risk control methods of A export enterprises: trade financing, financial derivatives, adjustment of the structure of foreign currency assets and foreign currency liabilities, adjustment of business strategy, international settlement instruments, and so on. At the same time, it analyzes the principle of each evading method, how to use, advantages and limitations, and puts forward that A export enterprise should combine its own business needs and risk management objectives. The use of systematic thinking to guide the daily exchange rate risk management, comprehensive consideration, promote strengths and circumvent weaknesses. Flexible choice of a variety of exchange rate risk control strategies and tool combinations. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method is verified by the effectiveness of each exchange rate risk control method. To A export enterprise exchange rate risk control ideas and methods are summarized.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F740.45

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