“十一五”以来中国出口增速放缓原因与对策研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 13:01

本文关键词：“十一五”以来中国出口增速放缓原因与对策研究　出处：《南京理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2002年以来,人口红利和全球化红利促进了我国出口的飞速发展和经济的快速增长。但是,出口规模的不断增加却显得后劲不足;2004年以来,出口增速一直处于放缓趋势。人口红利和全球化红利逐渐衰退,阻碍中国出口竞争力的提高,中国经济从高速增长向中高速增长换挡。出口健康平稳发展正在逐步取代出口快速发展,成为经济新常态下的出口新常态。分析影响出口增速的原因,有助于更全面地了解和掌握中国出口增速的特点,对进一步改进和完善出口贸易政策、平稳过渡到出口新常态提供对策建议。在对出口增速进行了描述性分析后,又通过定性分析和实证回归对中国出口增速放缓的原因进行了分析。结果发现,中国出口增速受到中国经济增长、进口国收入水平、商品价格、汇率、贸易政策和国际资本流动等多个因素的影响,经济增长因素、外商直接投资和对外直接投资因素对出口增速有正向效应,商品价格因素、汇率因素和贸易政策因素对出口增速有反向作用,更重要的是出口增速逐步放缓的负效应正在累积恶化,亟需改善。最后以分析结果为基础,结合经济趋势和政策环境,给出对策建议。国家层面,建议推进市场多元化、促进出口质变、保持汇率稳定、缓解贸易摩擦、优化投资环境;企业层面,建议紧跟市场节奏、加强风险预警、增加技术投入和扩大对外投资;在具体的操作过程还需要行业层面的支持与配合,充分发挥行业协会的作用。
[Abstract]:Since 2002, the demographic dividend and the dividends of globalization and promote the rapid growth of the rapid development of China's export and economy. However, increasing export scale is insufficient; since 2004, export growth has been slowing trend. The demographic dividend and the dividends of globalization gradually decline, hinder the Chinese export competitiveness enhancement, China economy from high speed the shift of growth to the growth. The healthy and steady development of export is gradually replaced by the rapid development of export, export has become the new norm under the new economic norm. The factors of influencing export growth, has led to a better understanding and grasp the China export growth, to further improve and perfect the export trade policy, a smooth transition to the new export normal provide suggestions. On the export growth of the descriptive analysis, through qualitative analysis and empirical regression of export growth on China The causes of corrosion were analyzed. The results showed that Chinese export growth by Chinese importing country economic growth, income level, commodity prices, exchange rate, trade policy and international capital flows and other factors, the factors of economic growth, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment on export growth has a positive effect, the commodity price factors the exchange rate factor, and trade policies on export growth have reverse effect, more important is the negative effect of export growth slowing down is a cumulative deterioration, need to be improved. Finally, based on the analysis results, combined with the trend of economic and policy environment, countermeasures and suggestions are given. The national level, suggestions on promoting the market diversification, promote the export quality, maintain exchange rate stability, ease trade frictions, optimize the investment environment; enterprise level, suggested that closely follow the rhythm of the market, strengthen risk warning, increasing technology investment and expanding foreign investment; in The operation process of the body also needs the support and cooperation of the industry level, and give full play to the role of the industry association.

【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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