中国—东盟自贸区机电产品贸易效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 13:06

本文关键词：中国—东盟自贸区机电产品贸易效应研究　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国同东盟政治安全合作不断深入,经贸合作蓬勃发展,持续对话与深入合作,为双方积累了厚实的政治互信基础,“一带一路”倡议和自贸区升级版为双方经贸融通注入新的活力。中国与东盟机电产品双边贸易规模较大,增长迅速,尤其是2010年中国—东盟自由贸易建立以后,机电产品贸易额更是取得了飞速的增长,机电产业是自贸区建设中的重要内容。目前中国提出的新海上丝绸之路发展战略规划,这无疑会促进中国—东盟自由贸易区和双方机电产品贸易的进一步发展。本文首先通过利用比较优势指数、出口竞争力指数、产业内贸易指数和贸易互补性指数等多项贸易指标来对中国与东盟之间机电产品贸易的现状及特征进行定量分析。然后利用恒定市场份额模型,从出口需求效应、出口结构效应和竞争力效应三个方面对中国与东盟机电产品贸易增长波动进行分解分析,发现出口结构效应的贡献率不高,对出口增长的作用不明显,这是由于机电产品的出口产品结构还未经过完全优化。为了进一步的发展机电产品贸易,中国的机电产品出口企业急需对产业结构进行优化升级。后又利用贸易比重法和巴拉萨贸易模型,根据不同的时间节点建立虚拟变量分析中国—东盟的贸易效应。分析发现,中国—东盟自由贸易区的建设扩大了区域内机电产品的贸易流量,对于双方贸易创造效应有着正向的影响,自贸区的建立以及“一带一路”战略的不断推进对于其中的贸易创造效应有着重要的引导作用。为了进一步扩大贸易效应,中国和东盟可以从国家和企业两方面着手,努力把握“一带一路”战略为中国—东盟自由贸易区带来的新的巨大的发展机遇,充分利用资源,群策群力,在扩大自身贸易效应的同时促进贸易伙伴国机电产品贸易良好健康的发展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, political security cooperation between China and ASEAN has been deepened, economic and trade cooperation has flourished, and continued dialogue and in-depth cooperation have accumulated a solid foundation of political mutual trust between the two sides. The "Belt and Road" initiative and the upgraded version of the free trade zone have injected new vitality into bilateral economic and trade exchanges. Bilateral trade between China and ASEAN on mechanical and electrical products is on a large scale and growing rapidly. Especially after the establishment of China-ASEAN free trade in 2010, the trade volume of mechanical and electrical products has been increasing rapidly. The mechanical and electrical industry is an important part of the construction of the free trade zone. At present, China has put forward the strategic plan for the development of the new maritime Silk Road. This will undoubtedly promote the further development of China-ASEAN Free Trade area and bilateral trade in mechanical and electrical products. Intra-industry trade index and trade complementarity index are used to quantitatively analyze the current situation and characteristics of trade in mechanical and electrical products between China and ASEAN. Then the constant market share model is used. From three aspects of export demand effect, export structure effect and competitiveness effect, the paper analyzes the fluctuation of trade growth between China and ASEAN, and finds that the contribution rate of export structure effect is not high. The effect on export growth is not obvious, this is because the export structure of mechanical and electrical products has not been completely optimized. In order to further develop the trade of mechanical and electrical products. The export enterprises of mechanical and electrical products in China urgently need to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure, and then use the trade proportion method and Barraza trade model. According to different time nodes to establish virtual variables to analyze the trade effects of China-ASEAN. It is found that the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade area expands the trade flow of mechanical and electrical products in the region. It has a positive effect on the trade creation effect between the two sides. The establishment of the Free Trade Zone and the continuous promotion of the "Belt and Road" strategy play an important role in guiding the trade creation effect in the zone, in order to further expand the trade effect. China and ASEAN can start from both national and enterprise aspects, strive to grasp the "Belt and Road" strategy for China-ASEAN Free Trade area to bring new enormous development opportunities, fully utilize resources, and work together. While expanding its own trade effects, promote the sound and healthy development of trade in mechanical and electrical products of trading partner countries.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

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