中国石油和光伏电池大国效应的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 06:26

本文关键词：中国石油和光伏电池大国效应的实证研究　出处：《北方工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国在国际能源市场的需求和供给上占有重要地位,却陷入了贵买和贱卖的贸易困境。本文以石油进口和光伏电池出口为例,用大国效应的视角对这种贸易困境进行探究,即进出口量变化对国际价格的影响。首先,本文通过相关系数法和构建VAR模型、Granger因果检验方法证明了中国在石油进口和光伏电池出口上具有大国效应,而且这种大国效应还是负大国效应,即中国进口量越大,需求越大,价格越高；出口量越大,价格越低。后面章节对中国石油和光伏电池贸易负大国效应的原因进行探析,从国际市场势力和刚性两个方面展开。其次,中国石油进口量和光伏电池出口量很大,却不能引导价格向自己有利的方向发展,本文采用面板数据模型和SMR模型对中国石油进口国际市场势力进行研究。得出如下结论：中国石油进口不具有买方市场势力,与此同时还面临强大的卖方市场势力,这导致中国在石油进口只能接受国际石油价格变动,没有谈判议价能力。本文认为中国石油进口没有国际市场势力,与卖方集中度高,中国国内石油替代品和新能源发展缓慢有关。中国光伏电池核心技术缺乏及遭遇“双反”制裁等反映出中国光伏电池缺乏国际市场势力。然后,国际油价的不断上涨,中国石油的进口量非但没有因为价格上升而下降,反而随着价格上升继续增加,光伏电池价格下降,中国的出口量却没有下降。本文认为这是因为中国的石油进口需求和光伏电池供给具有一定刚性,并对刚性概念进行了界定以及实证检验。在协整检验的基础上,估计石油进口需求方程和光伏电池供给方程,从而得到中国石油进口需求收入弹性和需求价格弹性,并且前者大于后者,从而得出中国石油进口需求具有一定刚性的结论；中国光伏电池出口弹性大于供给价格弹性,光伏电池出口具有一定刚性。最后,根据实证分析结果,在石油贸易中,提出中国应该通过技术手段和经济手段来降低刚性,提高市场势力；在光伏电池贸易中,提出增加国内需求,产业整合,重视技术开发等建议,以解决中国能源产品的贸易困境。
[Abstract]:The demand and supply of China in the international energy market is an important position in the international energy market , but it is caught in the trade dilemma of expensive buying and sale . In this paper , taking the oil import and photovoltaic cell export as an example , this paper probes into the dilemma of trade with the view of big country effect , that is , the influence of the change of import and export volume on international price . First , by using correlation coefficient method and constructing VAR model , this paper proves that China has great powers on oil import and photovoltaic cell exports , and the bigger the big country effect is , the higher the demand , the higher the price , the higher the export volume , the lower the price . The later chapter explores the causes of the negative country effect of China ' s oil and photovoltaic cell trade , and develops from the two aspects of international market forces and rigidity . Second , China ' s oil import volume and PV cell export volume are very large , but can not lead the price to develop in a favorable direction , this paper uses the panel data model and SMR model to study the international market forces of China ' s oil import . On the basis of co - integration test , the demand for oil import demand and the supply equation of photovoltaic cell are estimated , and the former is bigger than the latter , so as to conclude that China ' s oil import demand has certain rigidity . The elasticity of PV cell outlet is greater than the supply price elasticity , and the outlet of photovoltaic cell has certain rigidity . Finally , according to the results of the empirical analysis , it is suggested that China should reduce rigidity by means of technical means and economic means to improve the market power . In the photovoltaic cell trade , it is proposed to increase domestic demand , industry integration , attach importance to the development of technology and so on , so as to solve the trade plight of China ' s energy products .

【学位授予单位】：北方工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22;F426.61;F752

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