中国进出口贸易中的内涵能源测算研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 19:36

本文关键词：中国进出口贸易中的内涵能源测算研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着世界各国经济的不断发展,国际间进出口贸易范围也在不断扩大。近年来,中国能源需求和温室气体排放呈现快速增长趋势。各种形式的“中国能源威胁论”先后出现,因此通过对“内涵能源”概念的深入研究,并采用投入产出模型对中国进出口贸易中的内涵能源量进行测算,能够更好地从消费侧角度证实中国是能源的消耗国,而并非最终的能源产品消费国。本文从内涵能源的概念出发,详细整理了现有文献中对内涵能源测算区域范围、数据来源及划分、模型运用、误差来源、内涵能源结构和能源安全评价等的差异性。本文的创新之处在于借鉴投入产出模型,采用1995年到2009年WIOD提供的世界投入产出表中国表以及能源消耗总量数据,将中国的部门依照WIOD的国际标准划分为34个部门(除去家庭消费),整理并测算出中国34个分部门单边贸易进出口内涵能源量。同时采用世界银行提供的中国、日本、美国、澳大利亚、韩国和德国1995年到2013年的能源消耗总量,以中国现有的技术水平测算出中国进出口贸易中内涵能源上限净值;由于日本的技术水平处于世界领先位置,本文假设并测算出以日本直接消耗系数和能耗强度代替的中国进出口贸易中内涵能源下限净值。同时测算出中国同其他五个国家进出口贸易中内涵能源平均净值。本文引入进出口系数对模型进行修正,在较大程度上降低了测算误差。研究结果表明,从1995年到2009年中国分部门进出口能源强度和1995年到2013年中国各年份进出口贸易能源强度的测算结果对比中可以发现,中国整体的能源强度都远高于日本、美国等国家的4-13倍左右,并且中国主要能源部门消耗的内涵能源量极高,2009年中国单边贸易进出口内涵能源净值排在前三位的部门为电气、燃气和水供应业,精炼石油和核燃料业,以及基本金属和金属业。这三个高度能源消耗部门的内涵能源量占中国34个部门总内涵能源量的44.11%,同时中国进出口内涵能源总量上升明显。从1995年到2013年中国进出口贸易中内涵能源区间净值测算结果中可以发现,中国进出口内涵能源上下限净值的差距非常大。受到美国、日本、澳大利亚、德国和韩国五个国家较低的直接消耗系数和能源强度的影响,测算出的中国进出口贸易中内涵能源平均净值处于一个较低的水平并且增长趋势缓慢,这个测算结果应属于合理的范围。结果证实中国是内涵能源净出口国家。最后,本文提出相应的应对措施和政策建议,鼓励新能源的开发与利用,并且从政府和公民的角度提出相应的改善措施。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the world economy and the international import and export trade is also expanding. In recent years, China demand for energy and greenhouse gas emissions showed a rapid growth trend. The various forms of "Chinese energy threat" has appeared, therefore through in-depth study of the connotation of "energy" concept, and the connotation of input-output model the amount of energy in the import and export trade China estimates, can better from the perspective of the consumer side is confirmed Chinese energy consumption country, but not the final consumption of energy products in China.
This article from the concept of energy, with the connotation of the finishing energy estimates range of existing literature, data sources and classification, model application, error sources, differences in the connotation of energy structure and energy safety evaluation. The innovation of this paper lies in using the input-output model, using 1995 to 2009 WIOD world input-output table China table and total energy consumption data, the Chinese department in accordance with the division of the international standard WIOD 34 sector (excluding household consumption), and calculate the China finishing 34 Department of unilateral trade import and export volume. At the same time the content of energy provided by the world bank Chinese, Japan, America, Australia, South Korea and Germany in 1995 by 2013 the total energy consumption, to China existing technology level estimates of the Chinese import and export trade of energy embodied in the upper limit of the net; the technical level In the leading position in the world, this assumption and calculate the coefficient and energy intensity China instead of import and export trade of energy embodied in the lower net direct consumption in Japan. At the same time to calculate the Chinese with five other countries import and export trade in average net energy. This paper introduces the connotation of the import and export coefficient model was modified, greatly reduced the calculation error.
The results show that from 1995 to 2009 China Branch Import and export of energy intensity and calculation results of each year from 1995 to China import and export trade of energy intensity contrast can be found in 2013, the overall energy intensity China are much higher than Japan, the United States and other countries 4-13 times the left and right amount of energy and high China connotation of major energy consuming sectors in 2009, China unilateral trade import and export of embodied energy net ranked the top three in the Department of electrical, gas and water supply industry, petroleum refining and nuclear fuel industry, as well as the basic metals and metal industry. The three departments of the high energy consumption accounted for 34 of the energy content of China total amount of energy content of the 44.11% department at the same time, the connotation of China import and export total energy increased significantly. From 1995 to 2013 China import and export trade of energy embodied in the range of the net results can be found in the import and export Chinese connotation On the lower limit of the net value of the energy gap is very big. By the United States, Japan, Australia, influence of direct consumption coefficient and energy intensity in Germany and South Korea in the lower five states, estimates of the import and export trade Chinese connotation of average net energy is at a low level and slow growth trend, this result should belong to the scope of the results show that Chinese is reasonable. The connotation of net energy export countries. Finally, put forward corresponding measures and policy proposals in this paper, the development and utilization of new energy to encourage, and put forward the corresponding improvement measures from the government and the citizen's point of view.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.6

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