乳制品安全事件对我国乳制品进口贸易的影响

发布时间：2018-01-08 12:12

  本文关键词：乳制品安全事件对我国乳制品进口贸易的影响　出处：《安徽财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 中国 乳制品安全事件 进口贸易 演化博弈论 影响因素

【摘要】：当前,人们对食品的质量要求越来越高,食品安全已经成为大众普遍关注的问题。乳制品一直被认为是营养最完善的食品,也是增强人民体质的重要农产品。随着改革开放政策的实行和我国的成功入世,政府积极调整农业产业政策,鼓励并扶持乳牛养殖业的发展,使得我国乳制品在生产和消费上都有了很大的发展。2007年我国乳类总产量从上世纪90年代初低于500万吨的水平增加到3633万吨,年均增速达13.7%；城乡居民乳制品消费量也以年均10%的速度增长。然而,自2008年我国爆发“三聚氰胺”事件后,乳制品行业安全问题多次发生,对我国的乳制品的生产和消费造成了重大打击,不仅乳业发展缓慢,消费者对国产乳制品的信心也大幅下降。从20世纪90年代中期开始,我国就已成为乳制品净进口国,但贸易逆差增长幅度较小。在国内乳制品安全事件的催化下,我国乳制品进口量短时间内骤增,2013年贸易逆差已由2007年的5亿美元增加到51亿美元。 本文从国内频发的乳制品安全事件出发,在系统地分析我国乳制品进口贸易特点之后,通过演化博弈理论对我国进口贸易机制进行了分析,并且将乳制品安全事件对乳制品进口的影响进行了实证研究。主要内容包括：首先,通过大量的数据图表,分析了乳制品安全事件发生后我国乳制品进口贸易的特征,结果发现在安全事件的催化下,乳制品进口数量和金额大幅增加。其次,通过数据分析乳制品安全事件对我国乳制品消费和乳类生产方面的影响,利用演化博弈理论说明乳制品安全事件对进口贸易的影响机制。最后,根据前文分析,通过回归模型对影响我国乳制品进口贸易的影响因素进行了实证分析,认为乳制品的消费、生产和频发的安全事件是主要因素,并提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:At present, people demand higher and higher quality of food, food safety has become a common concern of the public. Dairy products have been considered as the most nutritious food. With the implementation of the reform and opening up policy and China's successful accession to the WTO, the government actively adjusted the agricultural industry policy, encouraged and supported the development of dairy cattle industry. In 2007, the total production of dairy products in China increased to 36.33 million tons from the level below 5 million tons at the beginning of -10s. The average annual growth rate is 13.7%; The dairy consumption of urban and rural residents is also increasing at an average rate of 10% per year. However, since the "melamine" incident broke out in China in 2008, the dairy industry safety problems have occurred many times. It has caused a great blow to the production and consumption of dairy products in our country. Not only the development of dairy industry is slow, but also the confidence of consumers in domestic dairy products has declined substantially. Since the middle of 1990s. China has become a net importer of dairy products, but the increase of trade deficit is relatively small. Under the catalysis of domestic dairy safety events, the import of dairy products in China has increased sharply in a short period of time. In 2013, the trade deficit increased to $5.1 billion from $500 million in 2007. Starting from the frequent domestic dairy product safety events, this paper analyzes the mechanism of China's import trade through evolutionary game theory after systematically analyzing the characteristics of China's dairy import trade. And the impact of dairy safety events on dairy imports is empirically studied. The main contents include: first, through a large number of data charts. This paper analyzes the characteristics of dairy import trade in China after the safety incident of dairy products. The results show that the quantity and amount of dairy imports increase greatly under the catalysis of safety events. Secondly. Through the data analysis of dairy products safety events on dairy products consumption and dairy production impact, using evolutionary game theory to explain the impact of dairy safety events on import trade mechanism. Finally, according to the previous analysis. Based on the regression model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the influencing factors on the import trade of dairy products in China, and concludes that the consumption, production and frequent safety incidents of dairy products are the main factors, and puts forward some relevant policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.82;F752.61

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