云南马铃薯期货价格保险试点可行性研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 14:36

本文关键词：云南马铃薯期货价格保险试点可行性研究　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国是农业大国,因此农业对我国综合国力的提升具有关键性作用。一直以来,如何提高农牧民收入是国家在建设发展中遇到的关键和挑战。自马铃薯主粮化战略提出以来,国家从三大主粮扩展到了包括马铃薯的四大主粮。云南省是我国马铃薯种植大省,也是我国马铃薯的主要产区之一。由于马铃薯产量高,适应性强,在云南省的覆盖面积非常大,已经成为云南省最重要的农作物之一,同时成为云南省农民收入的主要来源,是农村经济的增长点,在推动云南农业经济发展和农民增收方面具有重要作用。但由于云南马铃薯缺乏深加工,消费历来以鲜食为主,再加上受到自然环境的影响,马铃薯年产量波动很大,市场价格具有不确定性,薯农面临着巨大的市场风险。近年来,中央一号文件不断提及农业保险的发展问题,2016年,文件明确提出要不断探索农产品目标价格保险,提升农民收入的保障程度,稳步扩大“保险+期货”试点,推动农业保险的进一步发展。因此研究并推广云南马铃薯期货价格保险,正是响应中央一号文件的号召,通过购买期权,让农产品的市场风险由单一的政府承担分散了部分给期货公司,同时保险公司也到期货市场将自己承担的价格下跌风险部分对冲掉,这样就间接地缓解了财政压力。基于此,本文通过翻阅历年年鉴和历史资料对云南马铃薯种植的现状及其风险进行深入分析,同时就昆明、曲靖、昭通三地开展马铃薯期货价格保险的实地调研进行需求性分析,在借鉴美国收入保险借助期货市场进行风险管控的基础上,结合当前我国大连开展的玉米期货价格保险试点研究,通过借鉴国内外成功经验得出对云南开展马铃薯期货价格保险的相关启示。针对云南历年的马铃薯价格波动情况,综合运用保险经济学、统计学以及计量经济学等学科理论进行问题理论研究,并利用EVIEWS和EXCEL等软件对相关数据做计量分析。通过研究分析,尽管在开展马铃薯期货价格保险上存在一些困难,但这个创新性是好的。在马铃薯主粮化的战略背景下,马铃薯成为期货产品指日可待;而且在国家政策、财政支持下,随着大数据时代的来临,相信这款险种的试点落地不成问题。最后得出开展云南马铃薯期货价格保险试点是有可行性的。
[Abstract]:China is a large agricultural country, so agriculture to enhance China's comprehensive national strength plays a key role. All the time, how to improve the income of farmers is the key and challenge encountered in the construction and development of the country. Since the proposed potato staple food strategy, countries from the three staple expanded to include four major staple potato in Yunnan. Is China's potato growing province, is one of the main production areas of China's potato. Due to high potato yield, strong adaptability, very large coverage area in Yunnan Province, has become one of the most important crops in Yunnan Province, has become the main source of income of farmers in Yunnan province at the same time, the rural economic growth point in Yunnan has an important role in promoting the development of agricultural economy and increasing farmers' income. But due to lack of Yunnan potato deep processing, consumption has always been to fresh, coupled with the influence of natural environment, Ma Potato annual output volatility, the market price is uncertain, potato farmers facing the huge market risk. In recent years, the central document has mentioned the development of agricultural insurance, in 2016, the document made it clear to explore the target price of agricultural insurance, improve the guarantee degree of farmers' income, the steady expansion of insurance + futures "pilot, to further promote the development of agricultural insurance. So the research and promotion of Yunnan potato futures price insurance, it is to respond to a central file call option through the purchase of agricultural products, let the market risk by a single government dispersed to Futures Company, and insurance companies to the futures market will bear their own price the risk of falling part hedged, thus indirectly alleviate the financial pressure. Based on this, this article through the historical data of Yunnan Yearbook and potato planting The in-depth analysis of the current situation and risk at the same time, Kunming, Qujing, Zhaotong three to carry out the investigation of potato futures price insurance demand analysis, on the basis of the experience of the United States income insurance risk control by the futures market, combining with the current development of Dalian corn futures insurance pilot study, through drawing lessons from domestic and international successful draw on the experience of Yunnan to carry out the relevant implications of futures price. For the insurance of potato potato price fluctuations in Yunnan over the years, the integrated use of insurance economics, statistics and econometrics, theory research, and make a quantitative analysis on the related data by using EVIEWS and EXCEL software. Through research and analysis, although in potato futures price insurance there are some difficulties, but this innovation is good. In the background of the strategy of potato staple food, Ma Bell potato becomes a futures product just around the corner, and under the support of national policy and financial support, with the coming of the big data era, we believe that the pilot of this type of insurance will not be a problem. Finally, it is feasible to carry out the pilot of Yunnan potato futures price insurance.

【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.7;F724.5

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