中国原油进口风险对原油进口成本、经济发展的影响

发布时间：2018-01-10 23:28

本文关键词：中国原油进口风险对原油进口成本、经济发展的影响　出处：《吉林财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：石油是中国工业发展进程中至关重要的基础物资,同时也是我国工业的战略储备。如果能够持续地、稳定健康地从国际市场上获取石油资源,我国的经济增长将会得到积极有效的促进。与此同时,合理的石油供应为国家的政治安全和军事安全提供了保障,有利于实现我国的强国战略。随着我国经济发展的步伐越来越大,石油的需求量也越来越大。目前国内的石油供需现状是供给和需求之间极度不平衡。其中的原因是,我国的石油生产和供给能力相比于消费能力还有很大一段差距,这导致了石油对外进口的依赖度越来越大。从1993年开始,我国的石油进口量已经超过了出口量,这意味着我国石油自产自足的局面已被打破。近些年来,不断攀升的石油对外进口依赖程度使得我国未来的石油安全形势更加严峻。而我国能否在国际经济全球化的进程中继续保持良好的发展势头,很大程度上取决于是否有足够稳定又安全的石油供给。本文主要以原油进口风险、原油进口成本与经济发展为基本分析因素,首先对中国在原油进口过程中所存在的风险、进口原油所需付出的成本以及经济的增长情况进行了简单的介绍和分析,在石油安全方面,中国凸显了重要问题。接下来采用1988-2013年期间能够反映中国原油进口风险的赫芬达尔指数来考察中国原油进口地理集中度的演进趋势。把原油进口成本、经济增长的相关数据进行量化,再分别对其与进口地理集中度的发展变化关系进行研究,得到原油进口成本及经济增长在进口地理集中度作用影响下的变化趋势。原油贸易的健康稳定发展与否,很大程度上将会决定我国在进口原油方面的风险程度乃至我国的能源安全与否。在此,笔者针对怎样能够有效地规避原油进口风险的问题提出了原油进口来源的多元化、贸易方式的多元化、运输方式的多元化以及不断完善我国石油战略储备的对策和建议。并集中分析了石油进口来源多元化的方针,通过分析中国未来石油贸易对象国家和地区的具体情况,提出在与其进行贸易的过程中应当采取的具体策略。笔者希望本文能够为我国未来的原油贸易战略的制定带来启示,进而对整个的中国对外贸易发展产生积极作用。
[Abstract]:Oil is the basic material in the process of China vital industrial development, but also China's industrial strategic reserves. If sustained, stable and healthy access to oil resources from the international market, China's economic growth will be promoted effectively. At the same time, the reasonable oil supply provides a guarantee for the country's political and security military security, is conducive to the realization of China's great power strategy. With the pace of China's economic development is more and more big, oil demand is also growing. The present situation of domestic oil supply and demand is between the supply and demand imbalance. The reason is that China's oil production and supply capacity compared to the consumption capacity there is a great gap, which leads to foreign oil imports growing dependence. From the beginning of 1993, China's oil imports more than exports, which means I China's oil production self-sufficiency situation has been broken. In recent years, rising oil import dependence makes the future oil security situation in our country is more severe. China will continue to maintain a good momentum of development in the process of economic globalization, largely depends on whether there is enough stable and safe supply of oil in this paper. The risk of imported crude oil, crude oil imports cost and economic development as the basic analysis of the risk factors, the first Chinese which exists in the process of crude oil imports, imports of crude oil costs and economic growth are briefly introduced and analyzed, in the oil security, China highlights important issues. The next period of 1988-2013 can reflect the China crude oil import risk Beh Finn Dahl index to examine the evolution trend of the geographical concentration of crude oil imports China. The cost of imported crude oil, quantitative data of economic growth, then the import and geographical concentration degree of development and change, get the cost of crude oil imports and economic growth change trend of concentration of the role under the influence of imported crude oil trade geography. Whether or not the healthy and stable development, largely determines the risk the extent of China's crude oil imports in the area and even China's energy security or not. Here, the author how to effectively avoid the risk of imported crude oil is proposed to diversify sources of crude oil imports, diversification of trade mode, diversified modes of transport and constantly improve the strategic petroleum reserve in China and countermeasures and suggestions. Analysis of the sources of oil imports diversification policy, through the analysis of the specific circumstances of Chinese future oil trade countries and regions, and put in for trade The specific strategies that should be taken in the course of the change are: I hope this article can provide inspiration for China's future crude oil trade strategy formulation, and further play a positive role in the development of China's foreign trade.

【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.61

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