贸易便利化对我国出口贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-25 09:43

本文关键词： 贸易便利化出口额评价指标引力模型　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从世界范围看,2008年金融危机之后,世界各国为了改善经济危机造成的损失,积极采取措施恢复本国经济。世界经济温和复苏,并没有出现强劲的态势,反而各国出现分化并且世界贸易的发展缓慢增长。从国内看,加入WTO以来我国对外贸易得到了飞速的发展。根据国家统计局的数据,中国贸易总额2001年为5096.5亿美元,2015年为39600亿美元,15年间我国贸易总额增加了7.77倍。虽然中国的贸易总额有了很大的提高,但是近几年增长的幅度变小,甚至2015年呈现负增长。基于以上原因,世界各国正在寻找其他途径促进贸易发展。而贸易便利化是解决此问题的主要方法之一。因为贸易便利化是通过降低各国之间的贸易成本、减少贸易风险等方法改善贸易条件,是一个双赢的措施。并且2015年中国加入WTO多哈回合的《贸易便利化协定》,说明贸易便利化在我国越来越得到重视。因此,提高贸易便利化将是未来促进全球贸易的发展战略之一,也是改善我国贸易现状的主要途径。根据综上所述的国内外背景,本文主要从以下几方面研究贸易便利化对我国出口贸易的影响。首先介绍这一选题背景、研究意义以及国内外文献综述,使我们对国内外贸易便利化的研究现状有一个系统了解。然后在贸易便利化理论的基础上,根据Wilson方法测算各项指标,选取了2014年与我国进出口贸易额排名前36的国家或地区为研究对象,以2009-2015年的指标数据为样本,估计了我国的贸易便利化的发展水平以及样本国家贸易便利化的水平。计算出我国与发达国家的贸易便利化水平相比有很大差距。其次,我们选取了人口、距离、GDP、关税、贸易便利化的各项指数和综合指数为自变量,中国对该国家或地区的出口为因变量的面板数据,根据John S.Wilson的扩展引力模型回归分析。实证得出贸易便利化的指数与我国出口额有密切关系。在自变量中,两国或区域之间的距离和国内生产总值对贸易额影响最大,贸易便利化的指数的影响次之,关税影响最小。此外,在贸易便利化的各项分指数回归中得出,该进口国的海关及贸易环境、口岸及物流效率指数对我国出口贸易额影响较大,制度环境次之,互联网及金融影响较小。最后,我们在前面分析的基础上,切实提出加强我国贸易便利化的发展的建议,促进贸易便利化的建设。改善我国贸易条件不仅本国受益也有利于他国,是一个双赢的机制,所以加强贸易便利化国际和国内范畴的合作是未来我国发展的重点。
[Abstract]:From the world perspective, after the financial crisis in 2008, in order to improve the losses caused by the economic crisis, countries in the world have taken active measures to restore their own economy. On the contrary, various countries have been divided and the development of world trade has been growing slowly. From the domestic point of view, China's foreign trade has developed rapidly since China's entry into WTO. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics. China's total trade volume was $509.65 billion in 2001 and $3.96 tillion in 2015. China's total trade volume has increased 7.77 times in the past 15 years. Although China's total trade volume has greatly increased, the growth rate in recent years has become smaller, and even in 2015 there has been a negative growth. Countries around the world are looking for other ways to promote trade. Trade facilitation is one of the main ways to solve this problem, because trade facilitation is by reducing the cost of trade among countries. It is a win-win measure to reduce trade risk and improve the terms of trade, and China joined the Doha Round Agreement on Trade Facilitation in 2015. Therefore, improving trade facilitation will be one of the development strategies to promote global trade in the future. It is also the main way to improve the current situation of China's trade. According to the domestic and foreign background, this paper mainly studies the impact of trade facilitation on China's export trade from the following aspects. Firstly, this paper introduces the background of this topic. The significance of the research and the literature review at home and abroad, so that we have a systematic understanding of the current situation of trade facilitation at home and abroad, and then on the basis of trade facilitation theory. According to the Wilson method, selected the top 36 countries or regions of import and export trade volume with China in 2014 as the research object. Take the indicator data for 2009-2015 as a sample. The development level of trade facilitation in China and the level of trade facilitation in sample countries are estimated. It is calculated that there is a big gap between China and developed countries in the level of trade facilitation. Secondly, we select the population. GDPs, tariffs, trade facilitation indices and composite indices are independent variables, and China's exports to the country or region are dependent panel data. According to John S. Wilson's extended gravity model regression analysis, it is concluded that the index of trade facilitation is closely related to the export value of China. The distance between the two countries or regions and GDP have the greatest impact on trade volume, followed by the impact of the trade facilitation index and the least impact on tariffs. In addition, it is derived from the return of the sub-indices of trade facilitation. The import country's customs and trade environment, port and logistics efficiency index have a greater impact on China's export trade volume, followed by the institutional environment, Internet and financial impact is small. Finally, we on the basis of the previous analysis. It is a win-win mechanism to improve China's terms of trade not only for its own benefit but also for other countries. Therefore, strengthening international and domestic cooperation in trade facilitation is the focus of China's future development.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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