广西—东盟双边贸易结构研究

发布时间：2018-02-01 19:25

本文关键词： 广西-东盟贸易结构实证分析供给侧结构性改革　出处：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年爆发的全球性经济危机令国际贸易发展跌至冰点,同年全球贸易总额下降12%;全球国际贸易在2010年经过短暂的复苏之后又再度呈现下滑趋势:2011-2015年分别增长5.5%、2.5%、3%、2.5%、2.8%。经济危机爆发以来,世界各国采取的各种经济政策大多都收效甚微或是见效缓慢,世界经济增长依然迟缓,2016年全球GDP同比增长率仅为2.63%。从国际政治角度看,近两年全球性政治冲突事件频发,世界政治环境表现出愈发复杂和不稳定的态势。2016年6月23日,英国通过"脱欧"公投,宣布将从欧洲联盟退出,这标志着欧洲一体化进程出现了巨大的倒退;同年11月,美国当选总统特朗普公开表示将在上任后退出"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)",并将采取更多的贸易保护政策。从国内看,中国过往所采取的国际分工模式已不可持续。随着人口红利消褪、资源日益枯竭,中国在国际贸易中所具有的优势逐步丧失,经济发展进入"新常态",社会面临着陷入"中等收入陷阱"的危机。为应对世界性的需求疲软以及世界政治环境的复杂化所带来的挑战,中国国家主席习近平先后提出了 "一带一路"战略以及"供给侧结构性改革"指导方针,为中国未来发展做出了规划。广西作为我国的经济后发省份,受益于中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)合作的深化,全区经济建设取得了丰硕成果。自CAFTA正式启动至2015年年末,自治区与东盟各国的双边贸易额由65.3亿美元增长到290.1亿美元,占全区外贸总额的56%。在"一带一路"战略提出后,广西作为连接"丝路经济带"以及"海上丝路"的枢纽,是该战略的前沿阵地;此外,来自我国东部发达地区的产业转移,更是为自治区发展带来了巨大的机遇。同时,"供给侧结构性改革"方针也对中国的贸易发展指出了新的要求。那么,广西-东盟双边贸易发展显现出什么样的趋势?其贸易结构是否合理?是否符合"供给侧机构性改革"方针的要求?针对这些现状的探讨,对保持广西-东盟双边贸易的稳步发展有着重要的实际意义。在上述背景下,本文将以广西与东盟的双边贸易结构作为研究对象,首先通过理论与文献综述研究,对广西-东盟双边贸易的基本现状进行概述,并对其贸易结构进行统计分析,通过统计性指标的勾勒出广西和东盟国家贸易结构的状况;在此基础上,进一步运用显示性比较优势指数、产业内贸易等指数分析方法进行实证分析,研究广西与东盟双边贸易之中所存在的相似性和竞争性;同时,构建贸易引力模型进行计量分析,探究2006至2015年间广西利用外资的状况,进而揭示出广西-东盟双边贸易结构现状与双方资源禀赋、产业内贸易以及直接投资的动态联系。最后,根据定量分析、定性分析和实证分析的结果,得出结论并结合"供给侧结构性改革"的指导方针提出相应的调整建议。
[Abstract]:The global economic crisis that broke out in 2008 brought international trade to a freezing point. In the same year, total global trade fell by 12 points; after a brief recovery in 2010, global international trade again showed a downward trend. The number of global international trade rose by 5.5% 2011-2015, respectively, about 2.5% and 2.8% respectively. Since the onset of the economic crisis, Most of the economic policies adopted by various countries in the world have had little or no effect. The world economy is still growing slowly. In 2016, the global GDP growth rate was only 2.63%. From the international political point of view, the global political conflicts have occurred frequently in the past two years. The world political environment is increasingly complex and unstable. In June 23rd 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union, announcing that it would withdraw from the European Union, marking a huge setback in the process of European integration; on November of the same year, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has publicly said he will withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPP) after taking office and will adopt more trade protection policies. The international division of labor adopted by China in the past has become unsustainable. As the demographic dividend faded and resources dried up, China's advantage in international trade was gradually lost. As economic development enters the "new normal", society is facing a crisis of falling into a "middle-income trap." in order to deal with the challenges brought about by the weak demand in the world and the complexity of the world political environment, Chinese President Xi Jinping has successively proposed the "Belt and Road" strategy and the "supply-side structural reform" guidelines to make plans for China's future development. Benefiting from the deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA), the economic construction of the whole region has achieved fruitful results. From the official launch of CAFTA to the end of 2015, the bilateral trade volume between the autonomous region and ASEAN countries has increased from US $6.53 billion to US $29.01 billion. After the "Belt and Road" strategy was put forward, Guangxi, as the hub connecting the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "Sea Silk Road", was the frontier position of the strategy; in addition, industrial transfer from developed areas in the eastern part of China, At the same time, the "supply-side structural reform" policy also points out new requirements for China's trade development. Is its trade structure reasonable? Is it in line with the requirements of the "supply-side institutional reform" policy? It is of great practical significance to maintain the steady development of the bilateral trade between Guangxi and ASEAN. Under the above background, this paper will take the bilateral trade structure between Guangxi and ASEAN as the object of study. First of all, through the theoretical and literature review, the basic status of Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade is summarized, and its trade structure is statistically analyzed, and the trade structure of Guangxi and ASEAN countries is outlined by statistical indicators. On this basis, we further use the index of comparative advantage, intra-industry trade and other index analysis methods for empirical analysis, to study the similarity and competitiveness in the bilateral trade between Guangxi and ASEAN, at the same time, Based on the quantitative analysis of trade gravity model, this paper explores the situation of Guangxi's utilization of foreign capital from 2006 to 2015, and then reveals the current situation of Guangxi-ASEAN bilateral trade structure and the resources endowment of both sides. Finally, according to the results of quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis and empirical analysis, the paper draws a conclusion and puts forward corresponding adjustment suggestions combined with the guideline of "supply-side structural reform".
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

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